二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 28 日 豆粕：震荡，规避元旦假期风险 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（12.22～12.26），美豆期价涨跌互现、重心略微上移，期价上涨因为中方采购美豆、期价下跌 因为市场对中方采购仍保持谨慎。从周 K 线角度，12 月 26 日当周，美豆主力 03 月合约周涨幅 1.16%， 美豆粕主力 03 月合约周涨幅 2.02%。 上周（12.22～12.26），国内豆粕期价偏强震荡，豆一期价小幅上涨。豆粕方面，期价偏强主要是周 四市场消息影响：海关通关问题仍有担忧。豆一方面，盘面同样受到周四市场消息影响。此外，国储提价 收购影响偏多，国储抛储抑制上升动能。从周 K 线角度，12 月 26 日当周，豆粕主力 m2605 合约周涨幅 2.01%，豆一主力 a2605 合约周涨幅 1.08%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周（12.22～12.26），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）中方采购美豆数量有限，影响中性偏 空。据新闻讯，12 月 22 日中方采购美豆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Next week (Nov 3 - Nov 7), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate strongly, and beware of the technical adjustment of US soybeans. For soybean meal, the Sino - US economic and trade agreement has made substantial progress, the export demand of US soybeans is expected to improve, and the price of US soybeans will run strongly. For soybeans, attention should be paid to when the state - reserve purchase will start. Due to domestic policy support, the downside space of prices is expected to be limited [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents International Soybean Market - Last week (Oct 27 - Oct 31), US soybean futures prices rose because the Sino - US economic and trade consultations made substantial progress, the export prospects of US soybeans improved, and China restarted the purchase of US soybeans. The weekly increase of the main January 01 contract of US soybeans was 5.14%, and the weekly increase of the main December contract of US soybean meal was 9.36% [2] - The US government shutdown continued, and the relevant reports of the US Department of Agriculture were still suspended, with little impact [2] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week - on - week, which was a positive factor. As of the week of Oct 31, the average weekly CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in December decreased, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the disk decreased slightly week - on - week [2] - The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans was the same as that of the same period last year, which was a neutral factor. As of the week of Oct 23, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 36%, compared with 24% in the previous week and about 36% in the same period last year [2] - According to the weather forecast on Oct 31, in the next two weeks (Nov 1 - Nov 14), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil was slightly higher than normal, and the temperature was basically normal, which was a neutral factor [2] Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Last week (Oct 27 - Oct 31), domestic soybean meal futures prices mainly rose. The sharp rise in US soybean futures prices drove the domestic market to rebound, and the uncertainty of the China - Canada trade event had a disturbing impact. The weekly increase of the main m2601 contract of soybean meal was 3% [2] - The trading volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of Oct 31, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills in China was about 110,000 tons, compared with about 100,000 tons in the previous week [3] - The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of Oct 31, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 196,000 tons, compared with about 200,000 tons in the previous week [3] - The basis of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of Oct 31, the average weekly basis of the reference (Zhangjiagang) was about - 0.2 yuan/ton, compared with about 12 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 21 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3] - The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased slightly year - on - year. As of the week of Oct 24, the inventory of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills in China was about 940,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10% and a year - on - year decrease of about 2% [3] - The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to continue to decrease next week. As of the week of Oct 31, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 2.25 million tons (2.37 million tons in the previous week and 1.85 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate was about 62% (65% in the previous week and 53% in the same period last year). Next week (Nov 1 - Nov 7), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.1 million tons (1.86 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate is 58% (53% in the same period last year) [3] Domestic Soybean Market - Last week (Oct 27 - Oct 31), domestic soybean futures prices fluctuated. The spot price of soybeans in the Northeast producing area was stable with a slight increase, and the market sentiment was stable (the Sino - US trade sentiment eased, with a slightly bearish impact). The weekly decrease of the main a2601 contract of soybeans was 0.05% [2] - The price of soybeans was stable with a slight increase. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas of Northeast China was in the range of 3,940 - 4,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas in the Inner Pass was in the range of 4,660 - 4,900 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans in the sales area was in the range of 4,400 - 4,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [4] - Farmers in the Northeast producing area were reluctant to sell, and traders were cautious in purchasing. Grass - roots farmers were busy harvesting corn and were reluctant to sell the soybeans that had been put into storage. Affected by this, the volume of purchases by traders increased slowly, and some trading entities turned to platform auctions for procurement. In addition, as the Sino - US trade sentiment turned optimistic, the purchasing mentality of trading entities became more cautious [4] - The demand in the northern sales area increased, while the southern area still needed to wait. The sales speed of Northeast soybeans in the northern market was acceptable. Due to the decrease in temperature and the increase in vegetable prices, the terminal demand for bean products increased. In many southern areas, the temperature was relatively high, and it still took time for the downstream demand for bean products to increase [4]