Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the coming week (May 26 - May 30), both the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, the negative factors have been priced in, and there is limited downside, but there is no clear positive driver, so the price is expected to oscillate, and the focus will gradually shift to the weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas. For domestic soybeans, the limited remaining supply and firm spot prices are supportive, while the potential state reserve release is a resistance, so the price is expected to trade in a range [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Movements Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **U.S. Soybean Futures**: The U.S. soybean futures prices first rose due to concerns about floods in Argentina and slow spring - sowing progress, as well as short - covering, and then fell due to concerns about an escalating U.S. - EU trade war. The weekly increase of the U.S. soybean main 07 contract was 0.93%, and that of the U.S. soybean meal main 07 contract was 1.47% [1]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures**: Domestic soybean meal futures prices first fell due to weak spot markets and then rose because of the rebound of the spot market, the reduced marginal impact of previous negative factors, and the rebound of U.S. soybeans. The weekly increase of the domestic soybean meal main m2509 contract was 1.83%. Domestic soybean futures prices first rose and then fell. The support came from the firm spot price and limited remaining supply, while the resistance was the expected state reserve release. The weekly increase of the domestic soybean main a2507 contract was 0.10% [2]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **U.S. Soybean Sales and Shipment**: The net sales of U.S. soybeans decreased week - on - week, in line with expectations. In the week ending May 15, the 2024/25 U.S. soybean export shipment was about 250,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 42%, and the cumulative export shipment was about 44.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 22.41 million tons (compared with about 23.7 million tons last year). The total weekly net sales of the current and next market years were about 325,000 tons (compared with about 770,000 tons the previous week) [2]. - **U.S. Soybean Planting Progress**: As of the week ending May 19, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 66% (market expectation: 65%), 52% last year, and the five - year average was 53%, which was slightly bearish [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean CNF Premium, Import Cost, and Crushing Margin**: As of the week ending May 23, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for July - August delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly, and the average crushing margin increased [2]. - **U.S. Soybean Main - Producing Area Weather Forecast**: From May 25 to June 7, the precipitation in the U.S. soybean main - producing areas will be slightly above normal, and the temperature will be low first and then high, which will mainly have a neutral impact on the planting progress [2]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, mainly due to the large - scale trading of far - month basis futures. The average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills was about 390,000 tons, compared with about 80,000 tons the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. The average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 179,000 tons, compared with about 157,000 tons the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. The weekly average was about - 4 yuan/ton, compared with about 168 yuan/ton the previous week and about - 89 yuan/ton last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending May 16, the inventory of mainstream oil mills was about 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 34% and a year - on - year decrease of about 83% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase slightly next week. The weekly crushing volume was about 2.21 million tons (compared with 1.91 million tons the previous week and 2.01 million tons last year), and the operating rate was about 62% (compared with 54% the previous week and 57% last year). Next week, the crushing volume is expected to be about 2.25 million tons (compared with 2.16 million tons last year), and the operating rate will be 57% (compared with 61% last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: The成交 rate of the imported soybean auction was about 32%, and the成交 price decreased. On May 21, the planned auction volume was about 266,700 tons, the actual成交 volume was about 85,600 tons, and the average price was about 3,540 yuan/ton (compared with about 3,643 yuan/ton on May 13) [4]. 4. Domestic Soybean Spot Market Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price was firm. In Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans was 4,180 - 4,280 yuan/ton, basically flat or up 40 yuan/ton in some areas; in the Inner - Pass region, it was 5,100 - 5,240 yuan/ton, flat; in the sales areas, the price of Northeast edible soybeans was 4,580 - 4,820 yuan/ton, up 60 - 100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Northeast Production Area Situation**: Most of the new - season crop sowing in the Northeast has been completed. Some farmers are reluctant to sell, and traders are facing difficulties in sourcing, so they are turning to platform auctions. The market is still waiting for the state reserve release [5]. - **Sales Area Situation**: The soybean price in the sales areas increased due to the increase in the origin price, but the demand is weak due to seasonal factors, and the trading volume of dealers is slow [5].