Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate; the spot market for soybeans is gradually entering the holiday mode, and the futures prices may fluctuate [1] - The soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) mostly closed higher, with the benchmark contract rising 0.2% for the third consecutive trading day, boosted by President Donald Trump's statement that China will increase soybean purchases [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4,378 yuan/ton during the day session, down 12 yuan (-0.27%), and 4,392 yuan/ton at night, up 14 yuan (+0.32%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2,735 yuan/ton during the day session, up 5 yuan (+0.18%), and 2,745 yuan/ton at night, up 7 yuan (+0.26%); CBOT soybeans 03 closed at 1,114.75 cents/bushel, up 2.5 cents (+0.22%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 303.4 dollars/short ton, up 0.2 dollars (+0.07%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal is 3,040 - 3,100 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 to +10 yuan compared to the previous day; in East China, it is 3,020 - 3,100 yuan/ton, with a change of flat to +20 yuan; in South China, it is 3,060 - 3,170 yuan/ton, with a change of flat to +30 yuan [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 5.9 million tons per day on the previous trading day, and the inventory was 89.95 million tons per week two trading days ago [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On February 6, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed higher, with the benchmark contract rising for the third consecutive day, driven by Trump's statement that China will increase soybean purchases to 20 million tons this year [3] - The US Department of Agriculture will release the January supply and demand report on February 10. Analysts predict that the US soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will be 347 million bushels, 3 million bushels lower than the government's January forecast; the global soybean ending stocks are expected to be 125.3 million tons, higher than the government's January forecast of 124.41 million tons [3] - Brazilian government data shows that Brazil's soybean exports in January were 1.88 million tons, down 44.5% from December but up 75.5% from January last year [3] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that the good-to-excellent rate of Argentine soybean crops is 40%, down 9% from a week ago but still much higher than 20% in the same period last year [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]

2026 年 2 月 6 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆继续收涨，连粕或跟随 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） 4382 | | -3（-0.07%） 4378 | -12 （-0.27%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） 2731 | | +6（+0.22%） 2735 | +5（+0.18%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） 1110.75 | | +18.75（+1.72%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） 302.8 | | +6.4（+2.16%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 3030～3090， M2605+300， | 较昨-10至+10； 持平； | 现货M2605+410， 持平； 4-5月M2605+100/+130， 持平； | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Next week (Dec 29 - Dec 31), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate, and investors should avoid risks during the New Year's Day holiday [5] - For soybean meal, the domestic market is strong due to customs clearance concerns and positive commodity - market sentiment, but attention should also be paid to the dynamics of US soybeans. US soybeans are affected by China's purchases and South American weather [5] - For soybeans, the stable - to - strong spot market and the state reserve's price - increase acquisition are positive factors, while state reserve auctions may suppress short - term upward momentum, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 3: Summary of Market Conditions Last Week International Soybean Market - US soybean futures prices fluctuated last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a slight upward trend. The 03 - month contract of US soybean and US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.16% and 2.02% respectively on Dec 26 [1] - China's limited purchases of US soybeans are neutral - to - negative. On Dec 22, China bought 39.6 tons of US soybeans [1] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which is negative. As of Dec 26, the average CNF premium and import cost of Brazilian soybeans for Feb 2026 delivery decreased [1] - Some regions in Brazil started harvesting soybeans. AgRural raised the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season to 180.4 million tons [1] - Argentina's soybean planting progress was slow, but the early growth was good. As of Dec 24, the planting progress was about 75.5%, and the excellent - good rate was 67% [1] - The weather forecast for South American soybean - producing areas shows that precipitation in Brazilian main - producing areas will be basically normal, and in Argentina, it will be scarce in the next two weeks [1] Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly fluctuating last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 2.01% increase in the m2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The trading volume, pick - up volume, and basis of domestic soybean meal increased week - on - week. The inventory was basically flat week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to decline next week [1][3] Domestic Soybean Market - Domestic soybean futures prices rose slightly last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 1.08% increase in the a2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The domestic soybean price was stable - to - strong. The state reserve raised the purchase price, and the auction results were good. The trading volume of Northeast soybeans in the northern market was okay, while it was slow in the southern market [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed hopes for a "rare earth guarantee agreement" with China before Thanksgiving, aiming for China to restore free trade policies on rare earths and avoid additional control measures against the U.S. [3][4] - Rare earths are critical for high-tech and military applications, and securing a reliable supply chain would be a significant strategic advantage for the U.S. However, China has a firm stance on controlling the export of rare earths, especially those that could be used for military purposes [3][4][12]. - China has established a comprehensive export control mechanism for rare earths, requiring foreign companies to apply for imports, which allows China to maintain strategic autonomy and not be pressured easily [4][12]. Group 2 - Bessent acknowledged the significant losses faced by U.S. soybean farmers due to previous tariffs and expressed hope for China to fulfill its commitments to purchase large quantities of U.S. soybeans [6][7]. - The U.S. perspective views soybean purchases as a form of compensation for past trade actions, but China prioritizes market behavior and supply chain security, which complicates the situation [6][7][13]. - China is unlikely to make large-scale commitments to purchase U.S. soybeans solely to alleviate U.S. political pressure, as it considers various factors such as price and quality in its import decisions [7][13]. Group 3 - The U.S. has threatened severe sanctions if China does not comply with the proposed agreements, linking the rare earth discussions to soybean purchases and overall compliance with previous agreements [9][16]. - This approach intertwines multiple issues, increasing negotiation complexity and costs, and may lead to challenges in actual implementation of threats due to various international factors [9][14]. - The potential for U.S. sanctions could backfire, harming U.S. interests and global supply chains, while China has developed countermeasures and alternative sources for strategic materials and agricultural products [14][16].