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决定性催化剂:解析“大而美法案”对欧美A、D板块的冲击与机遇
Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the US Aerospace and Defense (A&D) sector following the passage of the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" [3][11]. Core Insights - The "One Big, Beautiful Bill" allocates an additional $150 billion to the US Department of Defense, addressing chronic underinvestment in the Defense Industrial Base (DIB) and military modernization needs [1][8]. - This funding is a strategic, front-loaded capital injection aimed at signaling long-term demand to the defense industry, encouraging private sector investments in production capacity and supply chain resilience [2][9]. - The bill is expected to create a growth super-cycle in the A&D industry, providing unprecedented certainty for defense contractors' planning and capital expenditures over the next 3-5 years [2][10]. Summary by Sections US A&D Sector - The funding will lead to higher order-to-delivery ratios and earnings growth in the coming years, with management commentary on the impact of new orders being closely monitored [3][11]. - Labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks are identified as potential execution risks despite a positive demand outlook [11]. European A&D Sector - The substantial funding for US A&D firms will increase competitive pressures on European counterparts, particularly in export orders [12]. - This situation may catalyze European governments to enhance their defense spending to support local champions, necessitating a selective investment approach in the European A&D sector [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Howmet Aerospace, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Safran, GE Aerospace, and Boeing for potential investment opportunities [5][13].