Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on upstream suppliers that provide core technologies and high barriers to entry, rather than direct investment in launch vehicle companies that face significant market and capital expenditure risks [4][50]. Core Insights - The global aerospace launch market is undergoing a profound and irreversible structural expansion driven by a revolution in cost structures, shifting from a government budget-dominated paradigm to a commercially driven era focused on high launch frequency and cost efficiency [1][7]. - The key catalyst for this transformation is SpaceX's disruptive cost reductions achieved through reusable rocket technology, which has set new price benchmarks and operational expectations for the market [1][7]. - Future launch demand will be supported by three solid pillars: the large-scale deployment of commercial broadband constellations (e.g., Starlink and Kuiper), increasing geopolitical competition and national security needs, and the revival of scientific and deep space exploration missions represented by the Artemis program [1][10]. Industry Background and Market Drivers - The report highlights a significant increase in global orbital launches, with a record of 259 launches expected in 2024, up from 223 in 2023, and a forecast of over 300 launches in 2025 [7][10]. - The transition to a commercial-driven market is exemplified by SpaceX's 138 launches in 2024, which accounted for half of the global market, establishing a new operational rhythm [7][10]. Core Technology Path Analysis - The competition in the launch market is fundamentally a competition of underlying propulsion technologies, converging on the "Methalox + Reusability + Additive Manufacturing" combination [2][13]. - Methalox engines are recognized as the future mainstream path due to their clean combustion characteristics and ability to simplify the reuse process, addressing the carbon buildup issues of traditional kerosene fuels [15][19]. Value Chain and Supply Chain Analysis - The report identifies a shift in value and profit concentration towards upstream suppliers of core technologies and high-barrier components, moving away from midstream assembly integration [3][36]. - The "smile curve" analysis indicates that high-value areas are concentrated at the upstream and downstream ends of the value chain, while midstream assembly faces profit margin pressures [36][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Howmet Aerospace, LOAR, VSE Corporation, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Safran, L3Harris Technologies, and Velo3D, which are positioned as key technology enablers in the supply chain [4][50].

5月1日， 中国航天科工集团第六研究院四十一所发布讣告：中国共产党优秀党员、忠诚的共产主义战 士，全国五一劳动奖章获得者，中国航天固体动力事业的奠基者、建设者，中国固体火箭发动机领域杰 出专家，中国航天科工六院科技委原副主任、研究员赵殿礼同志，因病医治无效，于2025年4月30日16 时25分，在内蒙古人民医院逝世，享年92岁。 赵殿礼1933年出生于江苏省泰兴县，1956年至1962年在前苏联列宁格勒军事机械学院就读，同年分配 到国防部五院固体火箭发动机所参加工作，1965年来到内蒙古，2002年光荣退休。 赵殿礼先后任41所技术员、组长、研究室副主任、主任、总工程师，六院科技委副主任、高级顾问， 曾获国家科技进步一等奖，6次获得国防科技进步奖，两次荣立个人一等功，多次荣获优秀共产党员、 先进生产者、突出贡献专家等荣誉称号。 赵殿礼长期致力于我国固体动力技术研究，先后主持多个国家重点型号用固体火箭发动机的研制、生 产、试验工作，解决了一系列重大技术难题，推动我国多型重点固体动力产品立项研制，是我国航天固 体动力技术领域的主要开拓者和固体火箭发动机由梦想变为现实的突出贡献者之一，为中国航天事业、 国防装备事业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of Shenzhou-20, featuring the first astronaut from Inner Mongolia, Wang Jie, highlights the dedication and achievements of China's space industry, particularly the contributions of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Significance - The launch of "Dongfanghong-1," China's first artificial satellite, marked the beginning of the country's space journey, with CASIC playing a pivotal role since its establishment in 1965 [1][4]. - The Gongxun Test Stand, a significant facility for solid rocket engine testing, has been operational for over 60 years and has witnessed numerous successful missions [1][4]. Group 2: Personal Contributions - Gao Shiwang, a retired engineer, reflects on his 40 years of service in the aerospace sector, emphasizing the importance of meticulous work and the pride associated with contributing to national space endeavors [4][6]. - Gao's son, Gao Xiang, followed in his father's footsteps, continuing the legacy of dedication to China's aerospace industry, showcasing a generational commitment to the field [6][8]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The transition from manual drafting to computer-aided design represents significant technological progress within the aerospace sector, enhancing efficiency and precision in engineering tasks [6][8]. - The successful completion of complex design and testing processes demonstrates the industry's capability to innovate and adapt, contributing to China's advancement in space technology [8].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial space industry is emerging as a new engine for global economic growth, with significant potential for marketization and commercialization, projected to exceed one trillion dollars by 2040 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Commercial space refers to space activities conducted with the primary goal of obtaining commercial profits, including satellite manufacturing, rocket manufacturing, and satellite applications [1]. - The direct input-output ratio of the commercial space industry is approximately 1:2, with a direct economic impact of 8 to 14 times the original investment [1]. Group 2: Bottlenecks - Key technologies are still reliant on imports from Europe and the U.S., with significant gaps in advanced satellite payload technology [2]. - There is a substantial gap in launch capacity, with current capabilities meeting less than 20% of future demand, and satellite launch costs in China are around $10,000, which is nine times higher than that of SpaceX's Starlink [2]. - A sustainable profit model has not yet formed, with many companies still operating at a loss due to high initial R&D investments and long return cycles [2]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The acceleration of satellite constellations like G60 and StarNet will further speed up China's commercial space sector, with private enterprises transitioning from "new forces" to "main forces" in the market [3]. - A selection of 12 outstanding companies in the commercial space sector has been identified, covering various fields such as rocket engines, fuel tanks, propulsion systems, satellite payloads, laser communication, and satellite big data [3].