Group 1 - The expansion of investment areas for special bonds has been noted, with 27 provinces in China planning to issue approximately 777.1 billion yuan in local bonds, including 460.1 billion yuan in new special bonds aimed at government investment funds [1] - Public fund institutions are increasingly focusing on enhanced index funds, with over 100 new enhanced index funds issued this year, surpassing the total for 2023 and 2024 [1] - Star fund manager Liu Gesong has stepped down from managing the Guangfa Multi-Asset Emerging Stock Fund, with his total managed fund size still exceeding 30 billion yuan, indicating a diversification in investment preferences [2] - Goldman Sachs reports that hedge funds have reached a two-year high in their net positions in Chinese stocks, with a net buying volume in August marking the highest since September 2024 [2] Group 2 - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs has been approved, with 14 fund companies participating, filling a gap in the public fund sector for technology finance bond funds [3] - The U.S. and South Korea are at an impasse regarding the details of a $350 billion investment fund, which is a key component of a broader trade agreement [3] - Global central banks have seen a milestone shift, with gold now surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds in their reserve composition for the first time since 1996, indicating a significant change in reserve asset preferences [4]

2025.09. 13 本文字数：1220，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 封图 | AI生成 本周美股延续冲击历史新高态势， 市场对今年美联储三次降息的预期逐步升温，投资者预期联邦公开市 场委员会将淡化关税对通胀的潜在风险转而更关注就业市场放缓的问题。 美国银行首席美股策略师哈特 尼特（Michael Hartnett）刊文发出警告，投资者对美股"极端看涨情绪" 正潜藏风险，并认为黄金是对 冲通胀、美元贬值及无序风险的优质工具。 哈特尼特：小心"极端看涨情绪" 美国银行全球基金经理调查将于下周发布，该行首席投资策略师哈特尼特警告称，此份调查可能会显示市 场存在极端看涨情绪 —— 而这种情绪往往是预示市场即将反转的有效逆向指标。 考虑到美股三大股指本周齐创历史高点，这种看涨热情看似合乎逻辑。哈特尼特认为，若机构现金持仓比 例降至3.7%以下、股票配置比例从超配14%飙升至30%，同时全球经济增长预期上调，那么美国银行的 专属交易模型可能会发出警报。 哈特尼特在其每周资金流向报告中写道，金融股上涨、利率敏感型股票走高以及信贷利差收窄（即美国企 业债券利率接近国债利率），这一系列现象表明，投资者目 ...

本周美股延续冲击历史新高态势， 市场对今年美联储三次降息的预期逐步升温，投资者预期联邦公开 市场委员会将淡化关税对通胀的潜在风险转而更关注就业市场放缓的问题。美国银行首席美股策略师哈 特尼特（Michael Hartnett）刊文发出警告，投资者对美股"极端看涨情绪" 正潜藏风险，并认为黄金是 对冲通胀、美元贬值及无序风险的优质工具。 哈特尼特：小心"极端看涨情绪" 美国银行全球基金经理调查将于下周发布，该行首席投资策略师哈特尼特警告称，此份调查可能会显示 市场存在极端看涨情绪 —— 而这种情绪往往是预示市场即将反转的有效逆向指标。 考虑到美股三大股指本周齐创历史高点，这种看涨热情看似合乎逻辑。哈特尼特认为，若机构现金持仓 比例降至3.7%以下、股票配置比例从超配14%飙升至30%，同时全球经济增长预期上调，那么美国银行 的专属交易模型可能会发出警报。 美国银行策略团队还关注到其他重要趋势：黄金因具备对冲通胀的特性，资金流入再次激增。截至周三 的一周内，黄金基金吸纳资金34亿美元，创下历史第四大单周流入规模。美国价值股近期相对大盘股表 现强劲，同期也获得新的资金注入，吸引5亿美元资金流入。 哈特尼特认为，21 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market continues to hit historical highs, driven by expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with a shift in focus from tariff-related inflation risks to concerns about a slowing job market [1][2] - Michael Hartnett, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Bank of America, warns of "extreme bullish sentiment" among investors, which could signal a market reversal, especially if cash holdings drop below 3.7% and stock allocations rise significantly [2] - Current investor sentiment is characterized by a strong belief in the Federal Reserve's decision-making, as evidenced by rising financial stocks and narrowing credit spreads [2] Group 2 - Gold funds have seen a significant inflow of $3.4 billion in a single week, marking the fourth-largest weekly inflow in history, as investors seek to hedge against inflation [3] - The investment philosophy of "ABD" (Anything But the Dollar) is emerging, with a notable increase in capital expenditures among hyperscaler tech companies, which have doubled to 72% of cash flow over the past two years [3] - Hartnett advocates for a "BIG" investment strategy, focusing on Bonds, International assets, and Gold, while maintaining a view that 30-year U.S. Treasury yields will drop to around 4% [3] Group 3 - Market sentiment is expected to shift seasonally, favoring Europe in spring, China in summer, and Japan by year-end, while gold remains a preferred tool for hedging against disorderly risks and dollar depreciation [4] - Bank of America anticipates that gold prices could rise further, potentially reaching $3,700 by the end of the year [4]