过去一个月，中国三大上市酒店企业(华住/锦江/首旅，股价分别下跌3%/5%/7%，而恒生中国企业指数 持平)表现不佳，原因是劳动节假期后出现获利了结，且它们对2025年RevPar(每间可售房收入)前景的评 论平淡。 尽管摩根大通预计投资者可能会对暑期旅游需求回升感兴趣，期望RevPar同比转正，类似4月的情况， 但摩根大通中国酒店追踪数据对2025年第二季度/第三季度财务数据的下行风险提出警告，因为预售平 均每日房价(ADR)7月也应会同比下降。 因此，摩根大通将这三家公司2025年的预测全部下调，同时维持投资策略：投资者仍可卖出估值实则更 高的相对弱势企业(锦江/首旅，尽管今年迄今表现不佳，但股价仍有20%+的下行空间，且存在每股收 益下调19%/7%的可能)，并在华住股价回调时增持，以进行长期行业整合。 摩根大通中国酒店追踪数据显示暑期旅游热度平平。摩根大通的追踪数据不仅表明，三大酒店集团2025 年第二季度的ADR可能会像5月各公司指引的那样同比大幅下降，还显示2025年第三季度的ADR可能会 继续同比下降，因为摩根大通的数据显示7月预售ADR尽管暑期需求回升，但同比仍更弱。摩根大通现 在预计RevP ...

6月12日，途牛旅游网披露2025年第一季度业绩报告。财报显示，途牛2025年一季度净营收为1.175亿元，同比增长8.9%；净亏损为535.20万元，2024年同期 净利润为2190万元。 | | Quarter Ended | Quarter Ended | Quarter Ended | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | March 31, 2024 | December 31, 2024 | March 31, 2025 | | | RMB | RMB | RMB | | Revenues | | | | | Packaged tours | 82,951 | 75,440 | 98,969 | | Others | 25,007 | 27,292 | 18,547 | | Net revenues | 107,958 | 102,732 | 117,516 | | Cost of revenues | (25,913) | (32,935) | (48,169) | | Gross profit | 82,045 | 69.797 | 69,347 | 事实上，途牛的盈利之 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth and positive operating profit margins, indicating a robust recovery in the travel sector [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached Rmb13.9 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb4 billion, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 29% [1]. - The company maintains its non-GAAP EPS forecasts of Rmb27.7 for 2025, Rmb29.7 for 2026, and Rmb30 for 2027 [1]. Business Segment Performance - Accommodation reservation revenue increased by 23% year-over-year [2]. - Transportation ticketing revenue grew by 8%, packaged tour revenue by 7%, corporate travel revenue by 12%, and other business revenue by 33% [2]. - Revenue breakdown by region: domestic (65% of total revenue, low teens growth), outbound (15%, 20% growth), and pure overseas (20%, 30%+ growth) [2]. Brand Contribution and Outlook - The Trip.com brand contributed 13% of total revenue, with over 50% year-over-year growth [3]. - For Q2 2025, revenue is expected to grow by 14% year-over-year, with domestic business in low teens, outbound travel up by 15%, and Trip.com brand growth exceeding 50% [3]. - The recovery rate of outbound travel compared to 2019 is projected to rise from 50% in Q1 2025 to 60% [3]. Market Position and Rating - The company is positioned as a leader in China's online travel industry, with potential for market share gains internationally [4]. - The target price is maintained at HK$590, indicating a 22% upside, with a Buy rating sustained [4].