交通运输部预测，2025年国庆中秋假期期间（9月29日至10月10日），全国铁路预计发送旅客约2.19亿人次，较去年同期增长7.5%；民航预计执行客运航班 总量13.9万班次，日均同比增长5.7%。多个旅游平台也显示，今年假期出游的人数同比大幅增长，旅游和消费或将进入全面的高峰期。 反映在资本市场上，9月以来，旅游股的表现呈分化趋势。再从各大企业上半年的财报表现看，无论是市值还是归母净利润，携程集团都断崖式领先。 3eK！ | 图 Ma "拼好假"的钱都进了谁的口袋? 9月以来二级市场旅游股表现 ● 航空公司 ● OTA ● 免税零售 ● 酒店 ● 旅行社及景区 9月以来股价变化(%) 10% 8% 吉祥航空 6% 华夏航空 ● 华佳集团 4% 除十 中国国航 同程旅行 2% ●中国中免 中国东航 ● 携程集团 0% 南方航空 -2% -4% ● 中航信(航旅纵横) -6% -8% -10% ● 众信旅游 -12% -14% -16% -18% -20% -22% ● 西藏旅游 -24% 2,000 1,500 3,000 3,500 2,500 500 1,000 4,000 0 市值(亿元人民币) 注释: ...

OTA在各自领域形成分野 携程集团近年来各项收入数据(亿元) ● 住宿预订 ● 交通票务 ● 旅游度假 ● 商旅管理 ● 其他 600 400 200 0 2022年 2025上半年 2020年。 。 ·2021年 · · · · 2023年。。 2024年 途牛近年来各项收入数据（亿元） 10° ● 打包旅游 ● 其他 5 0 2021年 2025上半年 2020年 2022年 2024年 2023年 同程旅行近年来各项收入数据(亿元) 目 200 - ● 住宿预订 ● 交通票务 ● 其他 150 100 50 0 。2021年 2022年 。2023年 2024年 2025上半年 2020年。 数据来源：公司财报 携程股价增长有其原因 中国OTA行业市场规模逐年递增 OTA行业市场规模(亿元) 同比变化(%) 15,000 50% 12,000 40% 9,000 30% 6,000 20% 3,000 10% 0 0% 2021年 2022年 2024年 2020年 2023年 从近年10月旅游APP的月活人数来看,携程始终遥遥领先 从左至右分别为2022年10月,2023年10月,2024年10月的月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has exceeded revenue expectations in Q2 2025, benefiting from a favorable competitive landscape and optimized marketing efficiency, leading to a continuous increase in profit margins [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.864 billion RMB, representing a 16.23% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.864 billion RMB, up 26.4% [1]. - Adjusted net profit (excluding non-recurring items) was 5.011 billion RMB, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached 4.880 billion RMB, marking a 10% increase, while adjusted operating profit was 4.668 billion RMB, up 10.4% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from accommodation bookings grew by 21.2%, while transportation ticketing increased by 10.8%, group tours by 5.3%, business travel by 9.3%, and other revenues surged by 31% [2]. - Domestic hotel performance outpaced transportation, with low double-digit growth, while outbound business remained stable, indicating an increase in market share [2]. Profitability and Market Position - The company's profitability is steadily improving, primarily driven by sales expenses management, with a stable sales expense ratio of 22.4% compared to 22.2% in the previous year [2]. - The overseas business continues to show strong growth, with revenue growth exceeding 50%, and the company's share in regions like Hong Kong and Singapore is increasing [2]. - The company has maintained a consistent increase in profit margins over several quarters, reflecting a stable competitive landscape and high certainty in profitability [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable revenue growth and improved profit margins in Q2 2025, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations, driven by strong execution and increased overseas investments [1][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic hotel and outbound travel businesses continue to gain market share, with Q2 accommodation booking revenue at 62.3 billion yuan, up 21.2%, and transportation ticketing revenue at 54.0 billion yuan, up 10.8% [2]. - Estimated Q2 domestic revenue growth exceeded 10%, with hotel night growth maintaining over 15%, while outbound revenue also grew over 10%, with hotel and flight bookings recovering significantly [2]. - International platform revenue is expected to grow over 30%, with Trip.com seeing over 60% growth in hotel and flight bookings [2]. Profitability Breakdown - The international platform is still in an investment phase, impacting profit margins, while domestic operations are optimizing profitability [3]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with R&D and management expenses rising by 18.3% [3]. - The company has repurchased 4 billion USD worth of shares and announced a new 50 billion USD buyback plan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved net operating revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 5 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, which was better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The company has repurchased approximately 7 million American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) for a total consideration of about 400 million USD under the stock repurchase plan authorized in February 2025 [1] Group 2: Domestic Tourism Market - The domestic accommodation booking revenue grew by 21% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong travel demand, particularly during holidays [2] - The supply of hotel rooms during the summer increased by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with hotel prices stabilizing and the year-on-year decline in prices narrowing to a mid-low single-digit range [2] - The number of inbound tourists in H1 increased by approximately 30% year-on-year, with a more than 100% year-on-year growth in inbound travel bookings on the company's platform [2] Group 3: International Business Growth - In Q2, cross-border flight capacity recovered to 84% of pre-pandemic levels, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30-40 percentage points [3] - The company's international business saw a total booking volume growth of over 60% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining a key operational focus [3] - The company’s non-GAAP sales expense ratio was 22%, remaining stable year-on-year, indicating better-than-expected customer acquisition efficiency [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company’s performance exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment in the forecast for adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 from 17.6/19.7/22 billion yuan to 18.3/20/22 billion yuan [3] - The corresponding adjusted PE ratios are projected to be 20/19/17 times, with a continued positive outlook on the company's overseas business growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group reported strong financial performance in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations, driven by lower sales and marketing expenses, leading to an increase in target price and maintained Buy rating [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached Rmb14.9 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase, with a non-GAAP operating profit of Rmb4.7 billion and a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 31% [1]. - By business segment, accommodation reservation revenue increased by 21% YoY, transportation ticketing revenue rose by 11%, packaged-tour revenue grew by 5%, corporate travel revenue increased by 9%, and other business revenue surged by 31% [2]. - Overall reservations on the Trip.com brand increased by over 60% YoY, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling (over 100% YoY), and outbound hotel and air ticket bookings up by 20% compared to 2019 levels [2]. Share Repurchase Program - The company has fully utilized the US$400 million share repurchase authorization limit for 2025 and has approved a new multi-year repurchase program not exceeding US$5 billion to enhance shareholder returns [3]. Future Outlook - The non-GAAP EPS forecast for 2025 has been raised from Rmb27.7 to Rmb27.8, with forecasts for 2026 and 2027 maintained at Rmb29.7 and Rmb30 respectively [1]. - The target price has been increased from HK$590 to HK$618, indicating a 21% upside potential [1]. - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in China's online travel industry and has potential for market share growth internationally [3].

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported Q2 2025 revenue of 14.83 billion yuan, a 16.2% increase, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 5.01 billion yuan, a 0.5% increase, with overall revenue meeting guidance and performance slightly exceeding expectations [1][3] - The company experienced steady release of domestic travel demand since Q2 2025, with inbound and international business continuing to show high growth trends, supported by optimized domestic marketing expenses and effective personnel cost control [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from various segments includes accommodation bookings at 6.23 billion yuan (+21.2%), transportation tickets at 5.40 billion yuan (+10.8%), travel vacation at 1.08 billion yuan (+5.3%), business travel management at 690 million yuan (+9.3%), and other businesses at 1.47 billion yuan (+31.0%) [1] Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for the period was 81.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to the increasing proportion of lower-margin international business [2] - The adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) was 31.5%, down 1.7 percentage points, with the NON-GAAP net profit margin at 33.8%, down 5.3 percentage points [2] Growth Drivers - The outbound, overseas, and inbound businesses showed rapid growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of pre-pandemic levels from 2019, and international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year, while inbound tourism bookings more than doubled [2] - A new share repurchase plan was approved, with an expected total repurchase scale of up to 5 billion USD, alongside dividends, aiming to provide continuous investment returns to shareholders [2] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "strong buy" rating, anticipating sustained growth in performance driven by the maturation of international market operations and improved profitability of trip.com [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [3]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to increase from 53.29 billion to 79.93 billion over the next four years, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.47% [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 17.07 billion to 23.34 billion, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin, expected to remain around 81% to 82.5%, which suggests effective cost management and pricing power [8]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities is anticipated to grow steadily, reaching 25.39 billion by 2027, which supports its financial health and ability to reinvest in growth [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for various segments indicate robust growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow from 5.59 billion in Q3 2023 to 8.30 billion by Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 22% [6]. - The total operating income is projected to increase from 13.75 billion in 2024 to 18.57 billion by 2027, with a consistent year-over-year growth rate [6]. - The company's EBITDA is expected to rise from 20.08 billion to 28.32 billion over the same period, reflecting operational efficiency [8]. Key Financial Ratios - The report outlines key financial ratios, including a projected return on equity (ROE) of 11.48% by 2027, indicating effective use of equity capital [8]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to improve, with a net debt ratio projected to decrease significantly, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 26.10 to 32.71, reflecting the company's profitability growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 financial results slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 14.83 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.2%, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 5.01 billion yuan, up 0.5% [1][7]. - Domestic travel demand has steadily released since Q2 2025, and the inbound and international business continues to show high growth, supported by optimized marketing expenses and effective personnel cost control [1][7]. - The new large share buyback authorization has effectively boosted market confidence, and the outbound and international business is expected to be a core growth driver in the long term [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company is projected to achieve a main revenue of 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122% [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 9.92 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 632% [2][9]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is estimated at 27.35 yuan, with a PE ratio of 18.5 [2][10]. Business Segment Performance - Revenue from accommodation bookings, transportation tickets, vacation travel, business travel management, and other services for Q2 2025 was 6.23 billion, 5.40 billion, 1.08 billion, 690 million, and 1.47 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +21.2%, +10.8%, +5.3%, +9.3%, and +31.0% [7]. - The overall gross margin for the period was 81.0%, a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to the increasing proportion of lower-margin international business [7]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the outbound and international business is expected to continue driving growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing by over 60% year-on-year and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [1][7]. - The company has approved a new share buyback plan with a total repurchase scale not exceeding 5 billion USD, which, along with dividends, is expected to provide continuous investment returns to shareholders [1][7].

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a net revenue of 14.8 billion RMB (2.1 billion USD) for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue reached 6.2 billion RMB (869 million USD), up 21% year-on-year, driven by growth in accommodation bookings [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion RMB (753 million USD), an 11% year-on-year increase, primarily due to the rise in transportation ticket bookings [1] - Vacation business revenue amounted to 1.1 billion RMB (151 million USD), reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase, supported by growth in vacation bookings [1] - Business travel management revenue was 692 million RMB (97 million USD), up 9% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to the increase in business travel orders [1] Profitability - Net profit attributable to Ctrip Group shareholders was 4.8 billion RMB (676 million USD), compared to 3.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 and 4.3 billion RMB in the previous quarter [1] Cash Position - As of June 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and held-to-maturity deposits totaling 94.1 billion RMB (13.1 billion USD) [2]