来源：市场资讯 （来源：申万宏源宏观） 事件：11月13日，央行公布2025年10月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下降0.1个百分点至6.5%，社融存量同比下行0.2个百分点至8.5%，M1同比下行1.0个 百分点至6.2%。 核心观点："存款搬家"再现 10月金融数据中，"存款搬家"现象在暂停一个月后再度出现。10月居民存款同比减少约7700亿元，而非银机构存款同比多增约7700亿元，与居民存款呈 现"跷跷板"关系。2025年三季度货币政策执行报告延续强调"降低银行负债成本"，若后续商业银行继续调整存款利率，居民可能进一步调整金融资产配置 结构，从而影响银行负债结构。 社融存量增速进一步回落，主要与财政融资"前置"结束后政府债净融资下降有关。具体来看，10月政府债净融资同比少增5602亿元，是拖累社融增速的核 心因素。这主要是因为2025年财政融资"前置"，导致政府债发行多集中在上半年。后续，随着5000亿元地方政府债结存限额的发行，政府债融资对社融的 拖累或将有所缓解。 展望后续，随着两项财政增量政策陆续落地，社融的稳定性有望增强。其中，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具的资金已于10月底前全部投放，有助于稳定信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" has re-emerged, with a significant decrease in resident deposits and a corresponding increase in non-bank institution deposits, indicating a shift in financial asset allocation [2][10][48]. Financial Data Summary - In October, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 6.5%, while the social financing stock fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.5%, and M1 decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.2% [1][9][46]. - Resident deposits decreased by approximately 770 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank institution deposits increased by the same amount, reflecting a "seesaw" relationship [2][10][48]. - M1 growth rate decline is linked to the decrease in resident deposits, which is directly related to the contraction in resident credit [2][10][13]. Loan Structure Analysis - In October, corporate loans remained predominantly short-term, with short-term loans and bill financing increasing by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 10.0%, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7% [3][19][48]. - Despite a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for three consecutive months, corporate investment sentiment remains cautious, as indicated by a decline in the PMI business expectations index [3][19][48]. Social Financing Trends - The growth rate of social financing stock has further declined, primarily due to a decrease in net government bond financing following the end of front-loaded fiscal financing [3][23][48]. - In October, net government bond financing decreased by 560.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which was a core factor in the slowdown of social financing growth [3][23][48]. Future Outlook - The stability of social financing is expected to improve with the implementation of two fiscal policies, including the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bond limits [4][49][26]. - These policies aim to stabilize economic operations towards the end of the year and align with the government bond issuance at the beginning of 2026, creating favorable conditions for economic growth [4][49][26]. Regular Monitoring - In October, new credit amounted to 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, primarily from the resident sector [5][50]. - The total social financing added in October was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, driven by declines in government bonds and RMB loans [5][32][50]. - M2 decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 8.2%, while the new M1 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.2%, with significant changes in deposit structures [5][38][50].