Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" has re-emerged, with a significant decrease in resident deposits and a corresponding increase in non-bank institution deposits, indicating a shift in financial asset allocation [2][10][48]. Financial Data Summary - In October, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 6.5%, while the social financing stock fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.5%, and M1 decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.2% [1][9][46]. - Resident deposits decreased by approximately 770 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank institution deposits increased by the same amount, reflecting a "seesaw" relationship [2][10][48]. - M1 growth rate decline is linked to the decrease in resident deposits, which is directly related to the contraction in resident credit [2][10][13]. Loan Structure Analysis - In October, corporate loans remained predominantly short-term, with short-term loans and bill financing increasing by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 10.0%, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7% [3][19][48]. - Despite a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for three consecutive months, corporate investment sentiment remains cautious, as indicated by a decline in the PMI business expectations index [3][19][48]. Social Financing Trends - The growth rate of social financing stock has further declined, primarily due to a decrease in net government bond financing following the end of front-loaded fiscal financing [3][23][48]. - In October, net government bond financing decreased by 560.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which was a core factor in the slowdown of social financing growth [3][23][48]. Future Outlook - The stability of social financing is expected to improve with the implementation of two fiscal policies, including the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bond limits [4][49][26]. - These policies aim to stabilize economic operations towards the end of the year and align with the government bond issuance at the beginning of 2026, creating favorable conditions for economic growth [4][49][26]. Regular Monitoring - In October, new credit amounted to 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, primarily from the resident sector [5][50]. - The total social financing added in October was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, driven by declines in government bonds and RMB loans [5][32][50]. - M2 decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 8.2%, while the new M1 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.2%, with significant changes in deposit structures [5][38][50].

宏 观 研 究 金融数据 2025 年 11 月 14 日 "存款搬家"再现 10 月新增信贷 2200 亿元，同比少增 2800 亿元，主要源于居民部门。居民短贷同比少增 3356 亿元，中长贷同比少增 1800 亿元。企业贷款新增 3500 亿元，同比多增 2200 亿元，其中票 据融资同比多增 3312 亿元，短贷持平，中长贷同比少增 1400 亿元。 10 月新增社融 8150 亿元，同比少增 5970 亿元，源于政府债券和人民币贷款。人民币贷款同 比少增 3166 亿元，政府债券同比少增 5602 亿元，企业债券同比多增 1482 亿元，委托贷款 同比多增 1872 亿元，信托贷款少增 16 亿元，未贴现汇票同比少增 1498 亿元。 —— 10 月金融数据点评 事件：11 月 13 日，央行公布 2025 年 10 月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下降 0.1 个百分点 至 6.5%，社融存量同比下行 0.2 个百分点至 8.5%，M1 同比下行 1.0 个百分点至 6.2%。 核心观点："存款搬家"再现 10 月金融数据中，"存款搬家"现象在暂停一个月后再度出现。10 月居民存款同比减少约 7700 ...

Core Viewpoints - The improvement in M1 may be partially attributed to accelerated fiscal spending, with a notable increase in enterprise deposits and a decrease in fiscal deposits [2][8][20] - Resident loans remain weak, with limited effects from consumer loan interest subsidy policies, reflecting a cautious attitude towards debt among households [2][11][20] - The decline in social financing growth is linked to the end of "front-loaded" fiscal financing, particularly government bond net financing [3][16][20] Financial Data Summary - In September, the total credit balance decreased by 0.2% year-on-year to 6.6%, while social financing stock fell by 0.1% to 8.7%. M1 increased by 1.2% to 7.2% [1][7] - New credit in September was 12,900 billion, down 3,000 billion year-on-year, primarily due to the corporate sector [20][25] - M2 growth declined by 0.4% to 8.4%, with M1 showing an increase of 1.2% [28] Loan Structure Analysis - In September, new resident loans amounted to 3,890 billion, a decrease of 1,110 billion year-on-year, while corporate loans totaled 12,200 billion, down 2,700 billion [20][25] - The structure of loans indicates a preference for short-term financing among enterprises, despite improvements in PPI and PMI indices [14][20] Future Outlook - The collaboration of fiscal and monetary policies may provide marginal support for the stability of social financing operations, with the introduction of new policy financial tools aimed at leveraging more credit and social capital [3][18]