来源：第一财经 2025.09.19 本文字数：2061，阅读时长大约3分钟 比如，审计署上述报告显示，审计9省地方专项债券管理使用情况发现92个地区挤占挪用651.8亿元。主要用于"三保"、偿还国企债务等。山东今年审计报 告显示，当地抽查2市10县发现，8县占用专项债券资金60.67亿元，用于偿还借款、支付其他项目工程款等支出。 长期关注地方债的粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒对第一财经分析，所谓化债资金使用管理不严，主要体现在以下三个方面：一是挪用化债资金，将本应用 于偿还工程款、银行贷款等隐性债务的资金，挪用于新的项目建设、发放工资或支付其他日常支出。二是"虚假化债"或"化债不实"，例如，通过应收账款 延期、融资平台之间相互拆借等方式来暂时掩盖债务，而不是真正用真金白银偿还，债务风险并未真正消除，只是形式转换和期限延后。三是资金拨付效 率低下， 化债资金在层层下拨过程中滞留、拖延，未能及时到达债权人手中，影响了政府公信力和化解效率。 根据财政部计划，2024年至2028年五年时间里地方政府将共计发行10万亿元地方政府债券来置换10万亿元存量隐性债务，以实现展期降息，缓释风险。公 开数据显示，这10万亿元化债额 ...

去年第四季度，国家适时推出了一套总额高达12万亿元的化债"组合拳"，其核心逻辑可以用"借新还 旧"的精髓来概括——用成本更低、期限更长的资金，置换掉那些利率高企、期限错配、且"见不得 光"的隐性债务。 一年前，14.3万亿的隐性债务余额如同达摩克利斯之剑，悬在中国地方财政的头上。然而，时隔一年， 财政部长蓝佛安在国新办发布会上抛出了一个令人咋舌的数字——10.5万亿。短短三百多个日夜，"消 失"的3.8万亿，是如何做到的？这背后并非简单的数字游戏，而是一场精心策划、旨在化解地方政府隐 性债务风险的"债务腾挪"与"重塑"。 "拆东墙补西墙"的智慧：化债"组合拳" 10.5万亿，一场悄无声息的债务"乾坤大挪移" 3.8万亿"蒸发"的背后：瘦身与重塑 这3.8万亿的"蒸发"，究竟意味着什么？ 具体而言，从2024年至2028年，中国计划发行总额10万亿元的地方政府债券。这些债券并非用于新增支 出，而是专门用来"置换"那些隐藏在角落里的隐性债务。这好比为地方政府进行了一场"债务整容手 术"，将过去那些利率高得令人咋舌、风险难以控制的非正规借款，转化为利率更低、期限更长、透明 度更高的政府债券。据统计，置换后的债券利率 ...

2025.09. 13 本文字数：1334，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 比如，粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒曾告诉第一财经，建议下半年加快存量隐性债务置换工作，根据地 方隐性债务到期和付息情况，需要实事求是地将化债总额度靠前使用，不必等到明后年再使用。 官方上述表态2026年靠前使用化债额度（2.8万亿元）也引起不同看法。 封图 | AI生成 今年地方政府隐性债务置换接近尾声，而为了稳经济、防风险，未来地方政府隐性债务化解工作有望提 前。 9月12日，在国新办举办的发布会上，财政部部长蓝佛安答记者问时表示，继续落实好一揽子化债举 措，提前下达部分2026年新增地方政府债务限额，靠前使用化债额度，多措并举化解存量隐性债务。 中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇告诉第一财经，这意味着未来将根据实际需要，科学优化化债方案，看 准了就做，这也是财政治理能力提高的表现。 为了防范化解地方政府隐性债务风险，去年四季度中国推出一揽子化债"组合拳"，其中一大核心就是发 行10万亿元地方政府债券来置换存量隐性债务，实现展期降息，缓释风险。根据此前财政部公开的化 债计划，上述10万亿元隐性债务置换额度分布在2024年至2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that local government debt replacement is expected to accelerate, with measures being implemented to address hidden debt ahead of schedule to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize part of the 2026 new local government debt limit of 2.8 trillion yuan earlier, indicating a proactive approach to debt management [1][3] - The overall government debt level in China is considered manageable, with a total debt of 92.6 trillion yuan and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, which is lower than the G20 average [5] Group 2 - The implementation of a comprehensive debt replacement strategy, including the issuance of 10 trillion yuan in local government bonds, aims to replace existing hidden debts and reduce interest burdens [1][4] - As of now, over 60% of financing platform companies have exited, indicating significant progress in the transformation and reduction of hidden debts [4] - Experts suggest that the acceleration of debt replacement could provide more funds to support the real economy, contributing to economic recovery [4][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - "One - package debt - resolution policy" has been in place for two years, and debt resolution has entered the second half. The credit risk is expected to remain controllable during the debt - resolution cycle, and more attention should be paid to the creditworthiness development in the post - debt - resolution cycle [2][3] - As of now, the local government's implicit debt resolution work is expected to have passed the halfway mark. By the end of 2025, the overall progress of platform delisting in the country may reach 70 - 80%, and the resolution progress of operating debts is also expected to exceed half by the end of the year [2][3][39] Summary According to the Table of Contents 2024 - present Debt Resolution Actions - Since the "one - package debt - resolution" proposal, a series of policies centered around the "Document 35" have been introduced, including "Document 47", "Document 14", "Document 134", "Document 150", "Document 226", and "Document 99", which have continuously refined and supplemented the debt - resolution requirements [6][7] Implicit Debt Resolution Progress - In 2025, the issuance of replacement bonds continued to advance, with a disclosed issuance plan of 19042.34 billion yuan and an annual progress of 95.21%. The issuance scale of special new special bonds reached 8505.78 billion yuan [2][8] - Since 2024, a total of 63225.88 billion yuan of debt - resolution funds have been implemented, accounting for 51.4% of the implicit debt balance to be resolved before 2028. As of now, Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, 22 prefecture - level cities, and 113 counties have announced the achievement of the goal of "zero implicit debt across the region", and Inner Mongolia announced its withdrawal from the key debt - resolution provinces on July 29 [2][9][13] Delisting Progress - As of the end of 2024, 40% of local government financing platforms had exited the financing platform sequence. As Inner Mongolia withdrew from the key provinces, Chongqing, Guangxi, Liaoning and other places are also actively seeking delisting. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the overall delisting progress in the country may reach 70 - 80% [3][15][16] Operating Debt Disposal - By the end of 2024, the scale of operating financial debts of financing platforms was 14.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 25% compared with the beginning of 2023. The bond issuance interest rate has significantly decreased, and high - interest debts in bank loans and non - standard debts are mainly reduced through three ways. The proportion of bank loans in the interest - bearing debt structure has increased rapidly, and the non - standard debts have been significantly reduced [20][23][26] - In 2024, the overall interest payment scale of urban investment was 3.05 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of only 2.06%. The comprehensive financing cost of urban investment platforms was 4.72%, a decrease of about 7bp compared with 2023 [29] Industrial Transformation - The ways of establishing industrial platforms include setting up a holding parent company, separating or integrating industrial - attribute subsidiaries, and developing industrial businesses on the original basis of entities with low urban investment attributes [33] - The injected operating assets depend on local resource endowments. Industrial transformation can also be achieved through equity investment and mergers and acquisitions of listed companies [36] Summary - The "one - package debt - resolution policy" continues to advance, and debt resolution has entered the second half. The credit risk is expected to remain controllable during the debt - resolution cycle, and more attention should be paid to the creditworthiness development in the post - debt - resolution cycle [3][41]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit local government debts through concentrated issuance of refinancing special bonds, which squeezed the issuance window for special bonds to some extent [2][45] - New special bonds will take over from refinancing special bonds, with an expected issuance scale of nearly 2 trillion yuan in the third quarter. Their investment directions show many highlights, such as diversification, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][46] - The issuance of local bonds shows significant regional differentiation. Five key debt - resolution provinces have higher issuance costs, while some economically developed provinces have lower issuance spreads. "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas are the main issuers, and key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds [3][46] - The expansion of local bond scale intensifies the repayment pressure in some regions, and the flexibility and autonomy of special bond issuance and use increase the management difficulty. Future management should strengthen the whole - life cycle management of special bond projects and leverage the role of special bond funds [4][47] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Local Bond Issuance in the First Half of 2025 - Overall, local government bonds issued about 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 57.18% increase year - on - year, reaching a record high. Net financing was about 4.41 trillion yuan, a 135.69% increase year - on - year [6] - In terms of bond types, refinancing special bonds and new special bonds were the main types. Refinancing special bonds issued 2.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.16% of the total. New special bonds issued 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.35% of the total, with a slow overall issuance progress in the first half of the year and an expected peak in the third quarter [7] - New special bonds are mainly invested in traditional infrastructure, but also show many highlights, including diversified investment, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][11] - Special refinancing bonds issued 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota, with issuance expected to slow down in the second half of the year. Special new special bonds issued 4647.80 billion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of the total, with large issuance potential [2][15] 2. Regional Differentiation in Local Bond Issuance - In terms of overall issuance, Jiangsu Province issued the most local bonds, 5500.6 billion yuan, mainly refinancing special bonds. Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan issued over 300 billion yuan [25] - In terms of issuance spreads, five key debt - resolution provinces have spreads mostly above 20BP, while some economically developed provinces have spreads compressed to within 10BP [3][27] - "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas (excluding Hebei Xiongan New Area) issued 2.95 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 53.73% of the total. They are expected to speed up the issuance of new special bonds in the future [31] - Twelve key provinces issued 2.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly refinancing special bonds. Many provinces are accelerating their exit from the list of high - risk debt areas, and those that exit are expected to increase the quota of new special bonds [34][37] 3. Problems and Prospects of Local Bonds - Problems include the increased repayment pressure in some regions due to the large - scale growth of local bonds and weakening fiscal revenue, and the increased management difficulty of special bonds due to enhanced flexibility and autonomy [38] - In terms of repayment pressure, the balance of local government debts has risen rapidly, and although the average term has been extended and the average interest rate has decreased, the weak fiscal revenue may intensify the interest - payment pressure [38][39] - In terms of special bond management, there are problems such as illegal investment, false reporting, misappropriation, and idle funds. Future management should focus on strengthening investment area management, full - process management, and expanding the proportion of special bonds used as project capital [43][44] 4. Summary - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit debts. New special bonds will take over, and special new special bonds have large issuance potential [45][46] - Regional differentiation is significant, and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas will play an important role. Key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds, and provinces exiting high - risk debt areas may increase new special bond quotas [46] - The expansion of local bond scale and weak fiscal revenue increase repayment pressure, and special bond management needs to be strengthened. In the future, new special bonds will be issued and used more quickly, and investment areas may be further expanded [47]