一、引言 2018年4月，《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见》（资管新规）正式实施，推动银行理财业 务全面进入净值化转型阶段。新规之前，理财产品以资金池模式运作，设定预期收益并依赖刚性兑付， 风险由银行体系隐性承担。这种模式在表面平稳的水面下积聚了大量暗流，掩盖了不断累积的期限错配 和信用风险。 新规要求打破刚兑，禁止资金池运作，实行独立建账、穿透管理和期限匹配，将风险定价权重新交还市 场。核心措施之一是统一估值方式：摊余成本法逐步让位于市值法，产品净值需实时反映资产价格波 动。对风险偏好较低的个人投资者而言，这意味着理财产品不再是静态的预期收益型资产，而成为在市 场波动中起伏的动态资产。 这一制度变革不仅是资产估值方法的调整，更改变了理财机构的资产配置逻辑，尤其是对久期策略的选 择，从而影响不同久期与资质的债券信用利差。围绕这一问题，研究聚焦于2022年初这一净值化元年开 启时点，将估值方式调整作为外生冲击，利用双重差分（DID）方法分析政策前后信用利差的变化与机 制。 二、政策背景与市场环境 ①理财净值化转型的演进。理财估值方式的改革可划分为四个阶段：资管新规发布前，多数理财产品为 非净值型，采用摊 ...

证券研究报告 固收 第二批科创债 ETF 上报，关注指数成 份券机会 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 信用周报 信用热点：第二批科创债 ETF 上报，关注指数成份券机会 8 月 20 日第二批 14 只科创债 ETF 集中上报，首批科创债从申报到上市用 时 1 个月，第二批科创债 ETF 也有望较快落地。科创债 ETF 上市以来规模 快速增长、流动性表现较好，已成为信用债 ETF 的第二大品种。受股市走 强、债市偏弱影响，科创债 ETF 净值经历两轮调整。考虑到政策支持+科创 债供给增长+科创债 ETF 质押回购业务落地，科创债 ETF 未来发展可期。 若第二批科创债 ETF 落地，科创债指数成份券流动性有望进一步提升，收 益率仍有下行空间，但短期幅度或有限，且面临股市、政策、重要事件等扰 动较多，建议关注 1-3 年中高等级科创债指数成份券的调整后增配机会。 市场回顾：股强债弱持续，信用债收益率全面上行 SAC No. S0570523080005 SFC No. BTF199 华泰研究 朱沁宜 研究员 zhuqinyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 S ...

信用债周策略 20250824 当前怎么看待信用债 ETF 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 当前怎么看待信用债 ETF 科创债 ETF 上市以来大部分交易日的日度资金呈现净流入状态，而基准做市信 用债 ETF 的日度资金则大多为净流出状态。8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 于年初上 市，截至 7 月 23 日前整体申购情况较为稳定，每日基本都有资金净流入，自 7 月 23 日开始债市行情走弱，基准做市信用债 ETF 的资金连续出现三天大额净流 出，合计规模超 50 亿元，其中 7 月 24 日的单日净流出规模最大，为 25 亿元。 科创债 ETF 方面，上市当日市场资金大额流入，10 只科创债 ETF 的单日资金净 流入额在 474 亿元左右，上市两日资金净流入超 660 亿元，随后日度资金流入 势头明显放缓，申购情况趋于稳定。7 月 17 日以来至今，8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 的资金净流出规模为 77 亿元，而科创债 ETF 的资金净流入规模为 918 亿 元，可能存在基准做市信用债 ETF 的申购资金被分流到科创债 ETF 的情况。 2025 年以来的三轮调整中，大部分信用债 ETF 的赎回压力可控 ...

第 444 期 2025-08-22 焦点关注 "债券报价方式将受限"？多家机构：暂未收到新通知 据21世纪经济报道，近日，有市场传言声称"中小机构不允许开通对话报价，已开通的也会被取消"。针对该传言，向 多家中小债券投资机构的业内人士求证，对方均表示"近期暂未收到新通知"。上述农商行债券投资人士指出，首 先，"小作文"里并未明确所谓的"中小机构"所指具体债券业务体量范围；并且，"此前一部分较小农商行确实只能发起 请求报价，但这些天并没听说有新的要求变化。" 前三大评级机构拿下近七成业务量！二季度市场头部效应凸显 中国证券业协会发布2025年二季度信用评级机构业务运行及合规情况通报。通报显示，二季度评级机构承揽的债券产 品和主体数量环比均上升，市场集中度进一步提升，前三大机构业务量占比近七成。同时，同一发行人评比不一致率 环比下降，评级偏差减少。 交易商协会通报2024年绿色债券评估认证市场运行情况 交易商协会发布《2024年度绿色债券评估认证市场运行及相关情况的通报》。2024年，我国绿债市场共发行绿色债券 477只，较上年有小幅增长，发行金额有所回落，但仍维持高位。按照产品类型来看，2024年绿色债务融资 ...

Report Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the week from August 11 to August 15, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, and the total trading volume also declined month - on - month. The credit spreads showed different trends in various industries, regions, and enterprise types [1][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - A total of 409 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 335.034 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 23.50%. Among them, 185 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 167.545 billion yuan (down 4.78% month - on - month, accounting for 50.01%); 188 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 107.989 billion yuan (down 9.87% month - on - month, accounting for 32.23%); 36 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 59.5 billion yuan (down 58.16% month - on - month, accounting for 17.76%) [1][11]. - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.92 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.55 years, urban investment bonds was 3.36 years, and financial bonds was 2.31 years [1][14]. - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.13%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.08%, urban investment bonds was 2.24%, and financial bonds was 1.88% [2][20]. 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Nine credit bonds cancelled their issuance this week [3][24]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - The overall industry credit spreads increased this week. Different industries, enterprise types, and regions showed different trends in credit spread changes. For example, among the Shenwan primary industries, the largest increase in AAA - rated industry credit spreads was in the public utilities sector (up 4.8BP), and the largest decrease was in the non - ferrous metals sector (down 0.9BP) [3][26]. 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 110.8575 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 12.25%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes [4][29]. 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report lists the top 20 actively traded urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week, including information such as security codes, security names, trading volumes, yields, and issuers [33][36].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market may experience profit-taking following a potential dovish signal from the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, as investors have recently flocked to risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, anticipating interest rate cuts to support a weak labor market and alleviate U.S. debt burdens [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are optimistic about the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, which has led to increased investments in stocks, cryptocurrencies, and corporate bonds [1] - The S&P 500 index has reached record highs, driven by technology giants, and the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has heightened expectations for a rate cut in September [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remains elevated, causing some cooling in rate cut bets, yet swap traders still see a 92% probability of a rate cut next month [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The team led by Michael Hartnett favors international stocks over U.S. equities, a stance that has proven correct this year [1] - Hartnett warns of a potential stock market bubble forming, suggesting that gold, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging market assets may benefit as investors seek to hedge against inflation and a weakening dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New-Type Industrialization," which aims to inject financial resources into China's new industrialization efforts, focusing on 18 targeted support measures [1]. Group 1: Positive Impacts of the Opinions - The Opinions provide financial "lifeblood" to promote new industrialization by increasing the supply of financial resources, especially medium- and long-term funding [13]. - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive financial product and service system, including support for technology transfer and encouraging intellectual property pledge financing [13]. - The Opinions serve as an action guide for financial support to the manufacturing sector and are crucial for enhancing China's production capabilities [13][14]. Group 2: Structural Changes in New-Type Industrialization - New-type industrialization is expected to undergo three structural transformations: technology-driven breakthroughs, deep restructuring of traditional industries, and regional resource reallocation [17]. - The financial structure for manufacturing will become more rational, with a focus on advanced manufacturing and improved collaboration within the industrial chain [17][18]. - The Opinions aim to establish a mature financial system by 2027 that supports high-end, intelligent, and green development in manufacturing [17][18]. Group 3: Role of Capital Markets - Capital markets are identified as key platforms for supporting new industrialization by providing long-term, low-cost funding for technology-intensive manufacturing enterprises [21]. - The article highlights the importance of a multi-tiered capital market system to meet the long-term funding needs from research and development to industrialization [21][22]. - Capital markets can help improve corporate governance and transparency, which is essential for aligning with international standards [21][22]. Group 4: Investment End Reform and Long-Term Assessment - The Opinions stress the need for investment end reform and long-term assessment mechanisms to shift focus from short-term profits to strategic direction and technological breakthroughs [25][27]. - Challenges in emerging industries include long technology conversion cycles and insufficient early-stage capital supply, which the reform aims to address [26][28]. - Long-term assessment mechanisms will enhance the willingness of long-term capital to invest in cutting-edge fields, facilitating the transition from laboratory results to industrial applications [25][27]. Group 5: Preventing "Involution" in Competition - The Opinions emphasize the need to prevent "involution" in competition by guiding financial resources towards innovative and high-tech enterprises [33][34]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to implement differentiated credit policies and optimize supply through industry self-regulation [33][34]. - The "anti-involution" approach aims to shift competition from price-based to technology-based, enhancing overall industry quality and reducing systemic risks [33][35]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities in Emerging Industries - The article identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, AI applications, and industrial internet, driven by policy support and market demand [41][42]. - Focus areas include high-end manufacturing, smart equipment, and digital infrastructure, which are expected to benefit from financial support and technological breakthroughs [41][42][43]. - The emphasis on green finance tools will aid enterprises in their transition towards sustainability, enhancing resource utilization [18][41].

2025-08-08 第 434 期 焦点关注 3家机构遭交易商协会处分 8月8日，中国银行间市场交易商协会发布自律处分信息。 经查，上海寰财私募基金管理有限公司作为相关私募基金管理人，通过自身管理的私募基金嵌套相关资 产管理计划后协助某发行人"自融"发行。 上海复熙资产管理有限公司作为相关资产管理计划管理人，通过自身管理的资管产品协助多家发行人非 市场化发行，并收取大额财务资助或代持服务费。 江苏煜宁私募基金管理有限公司作为相关资产管理计划管理人或投资顾问，通过自身管理的资管产品协 助多家发行人非市场化发行，收取大额财务资助。 经自律处分会议审议，交易商协会对上海寰财予以警告，对复熙资产、江苏煜宁予以严重警告。 宏观动态 财政部拟发行200亿元记账式贴现国债，期限28天 8月8日，财政部发布通知，拟发行2025年记账式贴现（四十九期）国债。 本期国债为期限28天的贴现债。本期国债竞争性招标面值总额200亿元，进行甲类成员追加投标。 本期国债发行价格通过竞争性招标确定，以低于票面金额的价格贴现发行。本期国债自2025年8月12日 开始计息，于2025年9月9日（节假日顺延）按面值偿还。 区域热点 恢复增值税后 ...

新发国债等债券利息收入恢复征收增值税 将对险资大类资产配置影响几何？ 本报记者 冷翠华 8月8日起，新发行的国债等债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。保险机构的债券配置规模大、占比高， 这一调整将对其带来何种影响？ 同时，多家研究机构就上述新政策对险企经营的影响进行了测算。例如，华源证券发布研报称，定量静 态测算结果显示，新发国债、地方政府债和金融债恢复征收增值税，短期内对保险公司净利润的影响程 度在1%左右，同时，保险公司可通过将资产配置转向高股息资产、购买老债等方式进行对冲。随着时 间的推移，保险公司配置新发债券规模增加，影响程度会略有上升，但整体不会太大。 整体影响较小 根据财政部和税务总局8月1日发布的《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》，对8月8日之后 (含当日)新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。对在8月8日之前已发 行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券(包含在2025年8月8日之后续发行的部分)的利息收入，继续免征增 值税直至债券到期。 国金证券也在近日发布的研报中表示，按照五大上市险企2024年归母净利润数据测算，预计新政策的影 响幅度在0.26%到1.77%之间，整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The reintroduction of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds is expected to have a minimal impact on insurance companies' net profits, estimated at around 1% in the short term, while encouraging a shift towards high-dividend assets and older bonds for hedging purposes [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Impact of VAT Reintroduction - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced on August 1 that VAT will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued bonds starting August 8, while previously issued bonds will remain exempt until maturity [2]. - Insurance companies have significantly increased their bond allocations, with bond investments reaching approximately 16.97 trillion yuan, accounting for about 48.58% of total investment [2]. Quantitative Analysis - Research from Huayuan Securities indicates that the short-term impact on insurance companies' net profits from the VAT policy is around 1%, with potential for increased impact as the allocation to new bonds rises over time [3]. - Guojin Securities estimates the impact on the net profits of the five major listed insurance companies for 2024 to be between 0.26% and 1.77%, indicating a generally minor effect [3]. Asset Allocation Trends - Despite the slight decrease in actual interest income, bonds will maintain their status as the "ballast" in insurance asset allocation, although there may be a marginal increase in equity asset allocation to enhance overall investment returns [4][5]. - As of the end of the first quarter, insurance funds have continued to increase their bond allocations, with a notable rise in the proportion of bond investments compared to the end of the previous year [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that insurance funds will likely accelerate their allocation to long-duration bonds to lock in tax-exempt returns, while the scarcity of these bonds may lead to a premium, resulting in lower long-term bond yields and increased fair value [4]. - Insurance companies are expected to increase their holdings in high-dividend stocks and growth stocks to mitigate the pressure from the VAT reintroduction and declining long-term interest rates, aiming for better long-term returns [6].