行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 一、行情回顾与操作建议 当日行情： 市场情绪有所修复，30 年长债在昨日大跌后回暖收涨。 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月30日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.640 ...

第 524 期 2025-12-22 焦点关注 7省已偿还违规新增政府隐性债务33.42亿元 12月22日，受国务院委托，审计署审计长侯凯向十四届全国人大常委会第十九次会议作了《国务院关于 2024年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支审计查出问题整改情况的报告》。 当日，审计署发布关于2024年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支审计查出问题整改情况报告的答记者问。 其中提到，加强地方政府债务风险管理，财政部进一步加强债务风险防控力量建设；严肃查处新增政府 隐性债务的地方和单位，在全国公开通报12起问责典型案例；印发工作通知，进一步加强对隐性债务新 增、问责、化解等全链条监管；开展地方政府隐性债务化解核查，会同有关方面按程序做好地方债务重 点省份退出工作。7省已偿还违规新增的政府隐性债务33.42亿元；9个地区国企违规归集的涉农贷款已 归还18.48亿元；2省2个地区已实质性化解政府债务1.7亿元。 河南再添AAA主体 12月22日，经东方金诚综合评定，河南省金水投资管理有限公司获AAA主体信用等级，评级展望为"稳 定"。 河南省金水投资管理有限公司成立于2010年12月，注册资本7.5亿元，系郑州市金水控股集团有限公司 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The report highlights the significant adjustment in the long-term bond market, indicating a supply-demand imbalance due to increased government bond issuance, which rose from 4.77 trillion in 2018 to approximately 13.35 trillion by December 2025 [6][7] - It is suggested that the future demand for ultra-long bonds may weaken, particularly from insurance funds, as the issuance of long-term bonds has surged, leading to increased pressure on banks' investment durations [7][8] - The report recommends addressing the supply-demand imbalance by controlling the issuance of government bonds and encouraging the central bank to purchase ultra-long bonds to alleviate market pressures [8][9] Group 2: China Jushi Co., Ltd. Insights - The report discusses the confidence of major shareholders in China Jushi Co., Ltd., with plans for significant share buybacks totaling between 6.75 billion and 11 billion RMB, reflecting a strong belief in the company's long-term growth potential [12][13] - China Jushi is recognized as a leading global manufacturer in the fiberglass industry, with a production capacity of nearly 3 million tons of fiberglass yarn and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.72% in revenue from 2014 to 2024 [13][14] - The company is entering the high-end electronic fabric market, which is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by advancements in computing power, positioning it for substantial growth in this sector [13][14]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 债市回顾：利率震荡回升，收益率曲线小幅走陡 11月，在政策空窗期，债市受资金面波动、股债跷跷板继续演绎及政策预期反复等因素影响下震荡加剧，整体呈现收益率震荡上行、曲线小幅走陡态势， 10Y国债收益率上行5BP，1Y国债收益率上行2BP。月初，受资金面收敛、信贷与通胀数据超预期、公募费率新规预期以及权益市场走强带来的股债跷跷 板效应影响，债市情绪偏谨慎，10Y国债收益率上行1BP；月中旬，资金面受买断式逆回购加力投放等呵护但仍显收敛，叠加地产贴息政策预期与经济数 据走弱交织等影响下，十债震荡上行至1.82%左右；月末，在基金费率新规落地前的谨慎预期以及降息预期反复等因素下，10Y国债收益率迅速上行3BP 至1.84%。截至11月28日，10年期国债收益率上行5BP至1.84%，1年期国债收益率上行2BP收于1.4%，期限利差走阔1BP至44BP。 本月债市展望：关注12月重点中央会议的表态和机构年末会否抢跑 基本面来看，其一，继续关注通胀改善-CPI温和回升、PPI跌幅持续收窄对债市的扰动；其二关注高基数下出口的韧性、PMI景气度触底改善 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant adjustment in the long-term bond allocation value, particularly noting the weak performance of ultra-long bonds and the systemic reduction in duration by broker proprietary trading and bond funds due to limited capital gains expectations [1][2] - Since 2018, the net issuance of government bonds has rapidly increased from 4.77 trillion to approximately 13.35 trillion by December 2, 2025, with an expected net issuance of around 13.8 trillion for 2025, indicating a substantial increase in bond supply [1][2] - The report indicates a supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds, with the annual issuance of interest rate bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more increasing from 1.96 trillion in 2021 to 5.28 trillion by December 2, 2025, leading to increased duration pressure on bank proprietary bond investments [1][2] Group 2 - Recommendations for addressing the ultra-long bond issues include controlling the issuance duration of government bonds and exploring the issuance of floating rate bonds to mitigate interest rate risk for banks [1][2] - The report suggests that the central bank should increase its own allocation of ultra-long bonds and encourage insurance funds to enhance their allocation to reduce the asset-liability duration gap [1][2] - The report notes that the conditions for further policy interest rate cuts may be in place, as the overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks has decreased significantly, supporting the potential for lower LPR and policy rates [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Bond Market Outlook and Investment Strategy Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market outlook for 2025 and 2026, focusing on the impact of macroeconomic factors, inflation, and government policies on bond yields and investment strategies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Outlook**: - The central bank is expected to maintain the 10-year government bond yield between 1.7% and 1.9% due to limited fundamental recovery [1][4]. - A slight interest rate cut of 10 basis points has occurred, but long-term bond yields have decreased significantly from 2.0% to 1.6% [2][3]. 2. **Inflation Concerns**: - Inflation is primarily driven by upstream factors, with no significant improvement in sectors like real estate or food [1][2][3]. - The sustainability of the recent CPI growth is questioned, as commodity prices have not shown significant recovery [3]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - The bond market has faced challenges due to a recovering equity market, which has not led to a corresponding increase in bond yields [2][5]. - The central bank's bond purchasing activities signal a desire to prevent rapid increases in yields, aiming to stabilize the market around 1.8% [11][12]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: - The investment approach emphasizes "configuration trading," focusing on market sensitivity and flexibility to navigate uncertain conditions [7][9]. - The strategy includes controlling drawdowns and maintaining agility in trading to capitalize on structural opportunities [7][9]. 5. **Impact of Regulatory Changes**: - New regulations on fund redemption fees may impact funds holding long-duration bonds, potentially leading to increased market volatility [13][14]. - The anticipated redemption volume could reach 700 billion, affecting market dynamics [13]. 6. **Government Policies**: - The government's efforts to address debt issues and increase fiscal special bonds are seen as positive but may not directly stimulate GDP growth [10]. - The real estate market's stability is crucial for consumer confidence and overall economic recovery [10][18]. 7. **Market Sentiment**: - Despite the challenges, there is a relatively optimistic outlook for bond market configuration opportunities towards the end of the year, supported by the central bank's actions [5][6]. Other Important Insights - The bond market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation range, with trading strategies needing to adapt to short-term market movements rather than long-term predictions [23]. - The importance of maintaining strict stop-loss disciplines and psychological resilience in trading is emphasized to manage risks effectively [24][26][27]. - The overall macroeconomic environment is stable, but the potential for interest rate cuts is increasing as the central bank seeks to support economic growth [16][18]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategies discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current and future outlook for the bond market.

Summary of the Conference Call on Bond Market Investment Strategy Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market, specifically the investment strategies for November 2025, highlighting a strong but limited downward movement in bond prices with low risk [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Economic Expectations**: Investors have high expectations for a strong economic start in the coming year, supported by positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and potential recovery in PMI data [1][3]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The ten-year government bond yield needs more favorable conditions to effectively drop below 1.7%. Current conditions show a 7,000 fund level around 1.4, indicating a loose but not extremely low liquidity environment [2][3]. - **Duration Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a neutral to slightly high duration strategy in November, focusing on opportunities to compress spreads, particularly in 30-year non-active bonds, 50-year government bonds, and 5-10 year active government bonds [5][11]. - **Short-term vs Long-term Bonds**: Short-term certificates of deposit are not cost-effective, while short-term government bonds are less likely to decline due to central bank purchases. If short-term rates continue to decline, a bullet strategy is preferred; if rates fluctuate, a balanced approach between bullet and barbell strategies is suggested [6][10]. - **Central Bank Actions**: The central bank restarted government bond trading to stabilize the balance sheet and as a long-term liquidity tool. This move is crucial given the declining balance of central government debt from January to September [7][8]. - **Government Bond Supply**: Although the net financing scale of government bonds in Q4 is lower than last year, it is still significant, necessitating central bank cooperation. The expected net financing scale for November to December is approximately 1.7 trillion, lower than last year's nearly 3 trillion [9][10]. - **Future Monetary Policy**: There is a high probability of interest rate cuts next year, although the likelihood of cuts within the year is low. The central bank may adopt a more flexible approach to reserve requirement ratio adjustments based on market conditions [10][12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: For 10-year government bonds, the new bond 220 is less attractive compared to the main bond 215 due to its small issuance scale. Recommendations include focusing on high-value long-term bonds such as the 30-year and 50-year government bonds [11][12]. - **Floating Rate Bonds**: Floating rate bonds benefit from declining short-term rates, but many are currently overpriced. Investors are advised to selectively focus on specific floating rate products [13]. - **Bond Futures Strategies**: The December contract IR2 is at a high level, suggesting effective hedging strategies using bond futures. Specific analysis is required for different contracts during the November rollover [14]. Other Important Insights - The overall bond market is expected to remain strong with limited downside risk, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for investors [4]. - The central bank's actions are crucial for maintaining liquidity and supporting the bond market amid fluctuating economic conditions [8][10].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Adopt short - and medium - term credit as the foundation, conduct band - trading on secondary and perpetual bonds, and be cautious about chasing long - term credit. The central bank's bond - buying is not a one - time benefit. It aims to promote banks to expand their balance sheets and absorb the fourth - quarter supply. There may be more measures to encourage bank bond - buying, and the bond market is likely to turn around in the fourth quarter, but the process will not be rapid. Short - duration credit remains the core, secondary and perpetual bonds can be traded in bands, and long - term credit should be approached with caution [5][8]. - In terms of specific allocation, continue to explore the steeper parts of the 2 - 3Y yield curve. There are many entities with a 3Y - 2Y term spread of over 25bp in public bonds, and there is also a wide range of bond selection with a 5Y - 3Y term spread between 30 - 40bp [5][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly View - The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading enhanced Q4 liquidity, leading to a rapid decline in bond yields and a rise in credit bonds, especially in the medium - and long - term. Future central bank policies may further boost the bond market. Short - duration credit is the base, secondary and perpetual bonds can be traded in bands, and long - term credit should be chased cautiously [5][8]. - Suggest exploring the 2 - 3Y steeper parts of the yield curve, with favorable term - spread conditions for bond selection [5][10]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From October 27 to November 2, there was no downgrade in corporate or bond ratings. However, some companies had negative events, such as Rongqiao Group with large - scale overdue loans and commercial acceptance bills, and Greenland Holdings with a large number of new lawsuits [12][13]. 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - Credit bond issuance decreased significantly week - on - week, and the maturity volume also shrank. The net financing was 126 billion yuan, indicating a basic balance between inflow and outflow. Two bonds with a total scale of 700 million yuan were cancelled or postponed. The issuance cost fluctuated slightly, with the AA+ level rising slightly [13][14]. 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - The repair slope of credit bonds of all grades and tenors increased, with a central decline of about - 6bp. Credit spreads widened at the short end and narrowed at the long end. The 5Y - 1Y term spread of all grades narrowed significantly, and the 3Y - 1Y spread narrowed slightly. The AA - AAA grade spread narrowed at the short - and medium - term and widened at the long - term. The weekly turnover rate decreased slightly to 2.02%. Only one bond was traded at a discount of over 10%, and no real - estate enterprise bonds were involved. The top five real - estate enterprises with widening spreads were Times Holdings, Yuzhou Hongtu, and Zhongjun [17][25][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the stock index futures market, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that using stock index futures as a long - position substitute can achieve certain excess returns, and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. However, the short - term market shows signs of cooling [2]. - For the bond market, in the short term, it is recommended to be bullish, as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is attractive. In the medium - to - long term, with the upward trend of risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is advisable to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 21, the four major A - share stock indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.02%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 2.81%. The market turnover was 189.27 billion yuan, an increase of 14.14 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.9%), electronics (+3.5%), and building decoration (+2.36%) led the gains, while coal (-1.02%), food and beverage (+0.23%), and transportation (+0.29%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC > IF > IM > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 4,624, 82, and 729 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 15.8 billion, - 6 billion, - 15.9 billion, and 6.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +12.7 billion, +5.6 billion, - 5.8 billion, and - 12.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 161.25, 132.82, 30.27, and 2.46 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 12.48%, - 10.5%, - 3.73%, and - 0.47% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 25%, 17%, 25%, and 39% respectively [2]. - The table shows the performance of various stock index futures contracts, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [5]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 21, the bond market rose. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.05%, TF rose 0.05%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.16% [2]. - The current active contracts are 2512 contracts. The CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2][3]. - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 6.85 billion yuan, with a currency injection of 15.95 billion yuan and a currency withdrawal of 9.1 billion yuan [3]. - The table shows the performance of various treasury bond futures contracts and spot bonds, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [6]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activities, real estate, and infrastructure sectors are less prosperous than in previous periods [9]. - The chart of domestic mid - level data tracking shows the comparison of the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and imports and exports based on the changes compared with the same period in the past five years [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on April 3, 2025, Sino-US trade frictions have occurred from time to time. The bond market usually prices tariff events quickly, and the impact amplitude and persistence may weaken as tariff frictions become more normalized. If subsequent Sino-US tariff games continue, bond yields may first decline rapidly and then fluctuate on a new platform [2]. - After the tariff event, risk appetite may cool slightly compared to the third quarter. If the equity market weakens, the stock-bond seesaw effect will support the bond market, and the market's expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut may fluctuate, promoting a phased easing of bond market sentiment. However, the bond market is still in a volatile market, and the space for a significant decline in yields is limited. It may fluctuate around a new range of 1.7%-1.75% in the short term [3][35]. - In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Sino-US negotiations and the reaction of the equity market. The configuration disk does not need to replenish positions immediately but can gradually build positions during market adjustments. The trading disk can operate in small bands of 3-5bp. Credit bonds may have a supplementary increase, and attention should be paid to the coupon opportunities of general credit bonds and the short-term trading opportunities of perpetual bonds [4]. Summary by Directory I. Tariff Disturbances Recur, but This Time It's Different (1) Event Review: Sino-US Frictions Have Intensified Since October - On the evening of October 10, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US starting from November 1, and export controls on all key software. Since October, frictions have emerged in multiple aspects such as ship fees, rare earth export controls, and anti-monopoly investigations. This event is similar to the April tariff event but different in the game situation, with stronger controllability and leaving room for subsequent negotiations [7][12]. (2) Bond Market Performance: Long-Term Pricing Is Fast, and Both Trading and Allocation Enter Actively - On the morning of October 11, bond yields declined rapidly, with both interest rate and credit bonds recovering. The yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds and 10y CDB bonds declined by 3-5bp, outperforming the short-term. High-grade credit bond yields generally declined, with bonds over 5 years performing better, especially the perpetual bonds of banks leading the rise. Institutions such as funds and securities firms actively went long on interest rate bonds [7][17][22]. II. How Has Tariff Disturbance Affected the Market This Year? - Since the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on April 3, Sino-US trade frictions have affected the bond market. By sorting out the performance of the 10-year treasury bond active bond at 9 key tariff points, it is found that the bond market usually prices tariff events quickly, and the impact amplitude and persistence may weaken as tariff frictions become more normalized. The yield range of the 10-year treasury bond active bond mostly fluctuates within 3BP, and the bond market usually completes pricing within 4 trading days [2][29][34]. III. The Bond Market's Short-Term Sentiment Eases, and Attention Should Be Paid to Gradually Adding Positions During Fluctuations - After the tariff event, bond yields may still have a small downward space, but the bond market is still in a volatile market, and the space for a significant decline in yields is limited. It may fluctuate around a new range of 1.7%-1.75% in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Sino-US negotiations and the reaction of the equity market. Different investment strategies are proposed for different types of investors, and credit bonds may have a supplementary increase [3][35][40]. IV. Review of the Interest Rate Bond Market: The Stock Market's Phased Volatility and the Escalation of Tariff Frictions Have Eased Bond Market Sentiment (1) Funding Situation: The Central Bank's OMO Has Significantly Net Recovered, and the Funding Situation Is Balanced and Loose - The central bank's OMO has significantly net recovered funds, but the overall funding situation is balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 weighted prices have declined, and the funding sentiment index has been relatively stable [11][50][51]. (2) Primary Issuance: The Net Financing of Treasury Bonds, Policy Financial Bonds, and Interbank Certificates of Deposit Has Increased, While the Net Financing of Local Bonds Has Decreased - The net financing of treasury bonds, policy financial bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit has increased, while the net financing of local bonds has decreased [57][59][61]. (3) Benchmark Changes: The Term Spreads of Treasury Bonds and CDB Bonds Have Both Narrowed - The short-term yields of treasury bonds and CDB bonds have declined, and the long-term yields have declined more significantly, resulting in a narrowing of the term spreads [55].