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中国股市慢牛,基本面逻辑是什么?
虎嗅APP· 2025-08-14 09:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bullish trend in the Chinese stock market, highlighting the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a four-year high of 5777.7, and contrasts this with the persistent skepticism from some analysts regarding the sustainability of this growth [5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current stock market rally is likened to the historical context of the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846, which allowed for rapid development of the bourgeoisie, suggesting that the current market conditions may similarly benefit from structural changes [7][28]. - The article emphasizes that the relationship between real estate and the stock market is critical, indicating that a downturn in the real estate market could lead to a rise in stock market performance, and vice versa [24][27]. Group 2: Economic Theory - The ongoing struggle between landlords and business owners is presented as a fundamental economic dynamic, where increasing rents can stifle business profitability and investment, leading to lower valuations in the stock market [10][19]. - The article argues that in a scenario where land supply is inelastic, even with high GDP growth, business profits may remain low due to rising rents, which are captured by landlords rather than business owners [16][22]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article posits that recent policy shifts signal a transition away from a "landlord economy" towards a "shareholder economy," where profits are more likely to flow to business owners, thus potentially enhancing stock market valuations [25][27][30]. - It concludes that the historical context of economic transitions suggests that the current changes in the real estate market dynamics could lead to a more favorable environment for stock market growth, moving away from the constraints imposed by real estate [28][30].
股市慢牛的基本面逻辑:地产才是股市的死敌
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-14 01:39
近期,股票市场持续上涨,万得全a指数来到了5777.7大关,创了四年以来的新高。 长时间的慢牛把那些看衰中国的人搞得很不自在,但是,这并不妨碍还有一些人会梗着脖子讲"这是水牛"、"这缺乏基本面支撑"如何如何。 说实话,那帮子讲水牛的宏观分析师在学校的时候大概率忙于实习,忽略了最基本的经济学训练,如果他们在上学的时候好好念过"经济思想史"这门课就 不会讲出这么反智的言论了。 | ☆ 收藏 △ 160 ▷ | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 谷物法(Corn Laws, 或称"玉米法案") 是一道于1815年至1846年强制实施的进口关税, 藉以"保护"英国农夫及地主免受来 | 自从生产成本较低廉的外国所进口的谷物的竞争。它规定了国产谷物平均价达到或超过某种限度时方可进口。其目的是维护土地 | | | | | | | 贵族的利益。要注意的是,在英式英语里,"玉米"(com)这个词语泛指所有谷物,与美式英语专指玉米的意思有所不同。 | | | | | | | | 谷物法 | દ્વા | श | 天米法案 | 441 | V | 维 ...
关于股市慢牛的基本面逻辑
对冲研投· 2025-08-13 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The recent stock market rally, with the Wind All A Index reaching 5777.7, marks a four-year high, indicating a significant upward trend in the market despite skepticism from some analysts regarding its sustainability and fundamental support [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The prolonged bull market has unsettled those who are pessimistic about China's economy, yet it does not deter others from claiming that the market lacks fundamental support [7]. - The current stock market situation is likened to the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846, which allowed for rapid development of the bourgeoisie, suggesting a similar potential for growth in the current market environment [8][9]. Group 2: Economic Relationships - The ongoing struggle between landlords and entrepreneurs is highlighted, where rising rents can stifle business profits and discourage capital investment, leading to a disparity in wealth distribution [10][12][19]. - The relationship between real estate and the stock market is characterized as a seesaw effect, where a downturn in the real estate market can lead to an upturn in the stock market, and vice versa [25][26]. Group 3: Policy Shifts - Recent policy changes, such as the Central Urban Work Conference and the 7.30 zzj meeting, signal a shift away from large-scale real estate expansion towards enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the capital market [26][28]. - The transition from a "landlord economy" to a "shareholder economy" is emphasized, suggesting that as land supply becomes more elastic, profits will more readily flow to shareholders, enhancing corporate valuations [28][30].