（原标题：欧洲民意的新信号：多元合作与自主发展的呼声增强） 本文作者为西班牙IE大学变革治理中心主任Irene Blazquez-Navarro。 对华认知变化具有现实基础 在国际格局加速演变的背景下，欧洲民意对中国的态度出现积极变化并不令人意外。调查显示，支持深 化对华关系的比例明显上升，年轻群体中的这一趋势尤为突出。这一变化并不意味着欧洲"选边站队" ，而是反映出其对全球力量对比变化的理性判断。作为世界主要经济体和全球治理的重要参与者，中国 在贸易、科技、气候变化等领域的作用日益凸显，欧洲社会对加强沟通与合作的现实需求也随之上升。 根据 IE 大学"变革治理中心"发布的《2025 年欧洲科技洞察报告》，欧洲社会对国际关系、科技发展以 及自身全球角色的认知正在发生结构性变化。其中尤为引人关注的是，支持加强对华合作的欧洲民众比 例在两年内上升了 15 个百分点。这一变化并非孤立现象，而是欧洲在复杂国际环境中重新审视自身定 位的一个缩影。 调查结果表明，在坚持与美国保持盟友关系的同时，越来越多欧洲民众倾向于以更加多元、务实的方式 看待对外关系。近四成受访者认为，欧洲在面对美国及大型科技公司的影响时，应当展现更明 ...

美欧撕破脸？特朗普说话很难听，反倒帮了中国一个大忙，欧洲领导人正接棒访华。 刚出炉的美国新版国安战略狠狠扎了欧洲人的心。 这份战略文件长达33页，涉及欧洲的部分，措辞十分犀利，一点面子都不留。 文件说，欧洲现在面临的经济衰退已经是次要问题，更严峻的现实是，欧洲正在面临文明消亡。 这对那些老牌欧洲国家来说，是绝对不能接受的说法。 美国作为欧洲的传统盟友，显然知道哪疼往哪戳。 从特朗普上台到现在，他的言行都在说明一件事，美欧之间的裂痕已经越来越大，在美国眼里，欧洲就是一头"大肥羊"，不割白不割。 美国的关税屠刀高高举起，中国的合作之手也稳稳递出，美国的翻脸无情，让欧洲加速做选择，转向中国。 5号，法国总统马克龙刚结束访华。 8号，德国外长瓦德富尔的专机就已抵达中国，和中方谈关键原材料合作。 之后德国总理默茨还想来一趟中国，而促使他们这么频繁这么着急访华的主要因素，就是美现在汽车、美妆等一些欧洲人引以为傲的产业，正在美国市场咬 牙硬扛。 欧盟委员会12月刚发布的经济报告说得明明白白，2025年欧盟GDP预计增长1.4%，但美国关税的滞后效应会在明年发酵，光汽车和化工两个行业，就可能 让欧元区增长少掉0.5个百分点。 ...

大家好，我是乔叔，今天咱们来聊聊美国这波所谓全球"收缩"，背后究竟是怎么在给自己的霸权换新招 数的。 日前，美国国债直逼37万亿美元，刚性利息支出已把财政搞得紧巴巴。战争消耗和造舰拖延，更让美国 不得不收敛全球扩张的野心。 拉美重新"抱紧"，保障安全底线 口头上说放弃主导权，实际可没真松劲。加勒比海集结大批美军，波多黎各基地翻修，F-35战机密集进 驻，离委内瑞拉只隔着几个小时的航程。 一边对委内瑞拉施压，一边拉拢阿根廷签协议，胡萝卜和棍子一起上，拉美国家的日子并不轻松。 美国在这片地区是出了力的，这种做法说到底也是为了给自己留条后路，强化自身安全防线，以应付外 部变数。 美国自身没怎么加兵力，反倒把日本、韩国推到前台。日本被逼着把军费暴涨，计划造新舰艇、潜艇， 军事指挥权和美军贴得越来越紧，几乎让美国遥控日本行动。 从高层到普通民众，大家都清楚，现在已玩不起大手笔的全球驻军了。白宫新战略宣布"低调"，其实就 是不得不调整打法，把以往的铺张转为精打细算。 这背后的现实压力，才是美国政策变脸的根本动力。 亚太盟友"变炮灰"，欧洲自力更生 金融拳头没收手，美元背后权力暗涌 别看美国军力转型，其实最厉害的还在金融牌 ...

最近国际舞台上最热闹的事，莫过于欧洲国家集体"向东看"。法国总统马克龙刚结束3天的访华行程，德国外长瓦德富尔就紧接着带着合作清单赶来中国， 后面还有德国总理默茨、英国等欧洲国家政要排着队想来访华。这波密集的访华潮，背后离不开特朗普政府的"神助攻"，曾经牢不可破的美欧同盟，如今已 经裂痕累累，让人不禁想问：难道真的名存实亡了？ 要说欧洲为啥突然集体转向中国，特朗普政府绝对是关键推手。美国刚出炉的新版国安战略文件，33页内容里对欧洲的评价堪称扎心，居然说欧洲面临的经 济衰退是小事，"文明消亡"才是大问题。这种话换谁都受不了，要知道欧洲那些老牌国家，最看重的就是自己的历史和地位。更过分的是美国的实际行动， 一边逼着欧洲加码对俄制裁，喊着"盟友就该共进退"，一边转头就举起关税屠刀。去年美欧刚签完"友好关税协议"，欧洲承诺每年买7500亿美元美国液化天 然气，结果美国转头就对欧盟钢铝产品续征25%关税，还新增了对意大利皮具32%的惩罚性关税。欧洲的汽车、美妆这些引以为傲的产业，在美国市场被搞 得举步维艰，这哪是盟友，分明是把欧洲当"大肥羊"宰。 特朗普一直推行的"美国优先"政策，彻底寒了欧洲的心。以前欧洲还能忍忍，但现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential decline of U.S. hegemony accelerated by Trump's policies, drawing parallels to the collapse of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev's reforms [1][3][6]. Group 1: Institutional Foundations - Trump's criticism of the education system and media has undermined the trust and recognition that form the basis of U.S. hegemony, similar to Gorbachev's actions that led to the collapse of Soviet beliefs [3][4]. - The social unrest in the U.S. during the first half of the year reflects the severe division within the country, indicating a loss of confidence in American values [3][6]. Group 2: Alliances - Trump's demands for NATO allies to increase military spending and threats to reduce U.S. troop presence have weakened alliances, potentially pushing European nations towards Russia [4][6]. - The internal divisions within NATO and the discussions among France and Germany about EU self-defense highlight the diminishing influence of the U.S. in Europe [4][6]. Group 3: Trade Foundations - Trump's imposition of tariffs and restrictions on international students has disrupted supply chains and led to economic stagnation, reminiscent of the Soviet Union's closed economy [6][7]. - The protectionist policies have resulted in a decline in economic growth and increased national debt, raising concerns about a potential financial crisis [6][7]. Group 4: Political Developments - Trump's victory in the 2024 election and subsequent policies have been characterized by a focus on "America First," which may further isolate the U.S. internationally [7]. - The rapid implementation of policies, including immigration and trade reforms, has led to significant internal conflict and a decline in national cohesion [7].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi is set to reshape global energy dynamics and geopolitical relations, focusing on energy cooperation as a key agenda item [2][4]. Group 1: Energy Cooperation - Energy cooperation is the central theme of the upcoming talks, with discussions on nuclear localization, technology transfer, and small nuclear power projects expected to yield multiple agreements during Putin's visit [4]. - India's import of Russian oil aligns with its energy security needs and plays a positive role in stabilizing international oil prices, becoming a crucial pillar of the bilateral relationship despite external pressures [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. has imposed heavy tariffs on Indian goods, reaching a total tax rate of 50%, in response to India's oil imports from Russia, which has led to significant challenges for Indian exporters [7]. - The Modi government has shown resilience against U.S. pressure, emphasizing the protection of farmers and small businesses while implementing measures like fiscal support and tax reforms [7][10]. Group 3: Long-term Relations - The longstanding Russia-India relationship transcends mere trade, encompassing comprehensive cooperation in energy, military, and cultural sectors, which is expected to be reinforced during the upcoming visit [10]. - The meeting is anticipated to not only enhance energy collaboration but also establish mechanisms for Indian labor in various sectors in Russia, further solidifying bilateral ties [10]. Group 4: International Implications - India's Foreign Minister has criticized U.S. actions as unreasonable and unjust, asserting that India's energy import decisions are based solely on national interests, unaffected by external pressures [12]. - The deepening Russia-India cooperation is likely to influence global energy market dynamics and geopolitical balance, warranting ongoing observation from various stakeholders [12].

Group 1 - The core argument is that Trump's recognition of China's strength marks a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape, acknowledging that China has rapidly risen to challenge the U.S. [1] - Trump expresses concern over the potential cancellation of tariffs, emphasizing their importance as leverage in negotiations with China and other countries [3] - The U.S. has implemented various measures, including chip export controls and trade investigations under Section 301, to counter China's economic and technological advancements [5] Group 2 - Despite external pressures, China continues to advance in innovation and has increased its global influence, with a net favorability rating of 8.8 compared to the U.S.'s -1.5 [7] - The U.S. faces challenges in forming anti-China coalitions, as countries like Saudi Arabia and South Africa resist aligning against China, indicating a shift in global dynamics [9] - The U.S. is grappling with a significant national debt of $38 trillion and internal political strife, which has led to a government shutdown affecting over 42 million people [9][10] Group 3 - Trump's focus on tariffs as a solution for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing overlooks deeper systemic issues within the American economy [10] - The global landscape is evolving towards multipolarity, with emerging economies gaining prominence and diverse governance models becoming more accepted [10][12] - China's rise is attributed to its institutional resilience and strategic stability, suggesting that the U.S. must adapt to these fundamental changes to maintain its global leadership [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights India's defiance against U.S. pressure regarding oil purchases from Russia and its strategic alignment with China, indicating a shift in India's foreign policy amidst U.S.-India tensions [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S.-India Relations - Recent U.S. tariffs on Indian products have strained relations, with tariffs reaching up to 50%, aimed at forcing India to open its agricultural market and reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. [3] - Despite U.S. pressure, India has increased its daily imports of Russian oil to approximately 1.8 million barrels in early October 2023 [3][5]. - India has committed to not exporting rare earth materials sourced from China to the U.S., reflecting a strategic pivot towards China [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Considerations - India benefits economically from purchasing discounted Russian oil, saving approximately $89 per ton, and is processing this oil into refined products for sale to Europe and the U.S. [5][7]. - The country relies heavily on China for rare earth materials, with imports expected to reach around 870 tons valued at over 3 billion rupees in the 2024-2025 fiscal year [5][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Strategy - India's traditional policy of strategic autonomy prevents it from fully aligning with any single power, complicating U.S. efforts to have India counterbalance China [7][9]. - The U.S. demands for India to cease Russian oil purchases conflict with India's domestic agricultural interests, particularly concerning the livelihoods of millions of farmers [7][9]. - The article suggests that while there may be limited easing of tensions between the U.S. and India, fundamental disagreements on key issues like agricultural market access and Russian oil procurement will persist [9].

Core Points - The article discusses the escalating diplomatic tensions between the United States and India, particularly following U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's threats of imposing a 50% tariff on Indian goods unless India supports the dollar [1][2][4]. - India's Prime Minister Modi's strong response included canceling his attendance at the UN General Assembly and refusing to meet with President Trump, signaling India's commitment to maintaining its diplomatic independence [6][8]. Group 1: U.S. Threats and India's Response - U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo's ultimatum to India included a demand for full support of the dollar or face severe tariffs, which was perceived as a direct challenge to India's sovereignty [2][10]. - Modi's immediate cancellation of his UN trip and refusal to meet Trump demonstrated India's rejection of U.S. pressure tactics [6][8]. - The U.S. underestimated India's resolve, believing that economic pressure would compel compliance [10][13]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Strategic Interests - The U.S. is concerned about the trade imbalance with India, which saw a trade surplus of approximately $35 billion for India in 2024, amidst a total trade volume exceeding $119 billion [10][11]. - India's significant purchases of Russian oil, especially post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have raised alarms in Washington, as it undermines Western sanctions against Russia [10][13]. - The rise of the BRICS nations and their push for de-dollarization is viewed as a direct challenge to U.S. financial dominance, with BRICS currency settlements increasing to 23% in 2024 [11][17]. Group 3: Global Power Dynamics - The conflict between the U.S. and India reflects broader shifts in global power structures, highlighting the tension between unilateral dominance and a multipolar world [15][21]. - The expansion of BRICS from 5 to 11 member countries, representing half of the global population and GDP comparable to the G7, signifies a growing challenge to U.S. hegemony [17][19]. - India's diplomatic stance is seen as part of a larger trend where middle powers seek to assert their autonomy and influence in international relations, moving away from being mere followers of major powers [19][25]. Group 4: Implications for Future Relations - Experts predict that U.S.-India relations may enter a phase of managing differences rather than returning to a cooperative state, which could lead India to strengthen ties with BRICS partners [25][27]. - Modi's actions are viewed as a potential model for other emerging nations facing similar dilemmas between great power influence and national sovereignty [27][29]. - The article concludes that the current geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a multipolar order, where countries must choose between subservience and independence [29].

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant increase in tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods, raising from 25% to 50%, which has led to a 30% decrease in Indian exports to the US within five days [1][3][13] - The trade deficit between the US and India reached $45.7 billion in 2024, with high tariffs and non-tariff barriers from India causing frustration for US businesses [5][16] - India's reliance on the US market is highlighted, as exports to the US account for a significant portion of its trade, despite a decrease from 16.9% in 2018 to 11.3% in 2024 [16][18] Group 2 - The geopolitical implications of the tariff increase suggest that the US is pressuring India to choose sides between the US and China, with Trump aiming for a clear strategic alignment from India [7][9] - India's response to the tariff increase has been passive, with a lack of strong countermeasures, indicating a sense of vulnerability and uncertainty in its diplomatic stance [9][20] - The ongoing trade tensions and the potential for a downgrade in India's sovereign credit rating due to a widening trade deficit pose significant risks to India's economic strategy [18][40] Group 3 - The relationship between India and China is evolving, with India seeking to diversify its trade partnerships, but facing challenges in quickly mitigating losses from the US market [22][30] - China's approach to the US-India tensions has been characterized by restraint, indicating a strategic patience and a focus on maintaining its own interests without rushing to align with India [24][28] - The broader context of global multipolarity is emphasized, with India's situation reflecting the challenges faced by middle powers in navigating great power competition [34][46]