Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, rebounding from a two-day decline, highlights the market's "buying on dips" mentality, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, with spot gold rising to $4,132.76 per ounce, marking a 1% increase in a single day, while December gold futures surged by 2% to $4,145.60 per ounce [1]. - The price drop on October 22, where gold fell to $4,054.34, was a decline of over $300 from the historical high of $4,381.21 on October 20, raising concerns about the sustainability of the gold bull market [1]. Investor Behavior - Despite the recent price drop, investors have shown a strong inclination to buy on dips, with many viewing price corrections as opportunities to enter the market [3]. - The trend of "buying on dips" has become a common strategy in the gold market, with significant inflows into gold ETFs observed throughout October [3][4]. Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors, particularly from North America and Europe, have been increasing their positions in gold ETFs, indicating a long-term bullish outlook despite short-term volatility [4][10]. - The combined efforts of retail and institutional investors provide robust support for gold prices, making it difficult for prices to experience significant declines [4]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical developments, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, have contributed to market volatility, driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [4][6]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to enhance gold's appeal as a "safe haven" asset, particularly in light of the recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU on Russia [6][10]. Economic Indicators - The release of lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November [7][8]. - Lower interest rates reduce the holding costs of gold, making it a more attractive investment option [8][9]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves at record levels, providing a strong foundational support for gold prices [10][11]. - A significant portion of central banks plan to continue purchasing gold, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to buy more gold in the next 12 months [10]. Future Projections - Morgan Stanley has set a target of $5,000 per ounce for gold by the end of 2026, citing stable demand and ongoing central bank purchases as key drivers [11]. - While short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to persistent geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and low interest rate expectations [12][15].

Group 1 - The US dollar index (DXY) continues to decline, breaking below the 99.00 level and approaching key support around 98.80, with expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December exceeding 90% [1] - The euro/dollar has rebounded from a low of 1.1542 this week, currently testing the neckline of a double bottom pattern around 1.1630, supported by dovish comments from the Fed and improved risk appetite [1][3] - Gold prices have been supported by buying interest for the fourth consecutive day, breaking above $4200 amid geopolitical tensions and trade friction, with expectations of rate cuts contributing to the demand for non-yielding assets [1][3] Group 2 - Global trade tensions and geopolitical risks are impacting the energy market, with oil prices potentially facing pressure if global demand expectations are revised downward, despite a weaker dollar typically supporting oil prices [2] - Market reactions are driven by dovish Fed expectations and the US fiscal deadlock, leading to a weaker dollar and increased safe-haven buying in gold, while the euro has rebounded due to improved risk sentiment [3]