Core Viewpoint - The property management sector is regaining investor interest in the current bull market, characterized by both defensive and growth attributes, with a year-to-date increase of 23%, closely aligning with the Hang Seng Index's 25% rise. However, internal differentiation within the industry remains, necessitating careful identification of unique value propositions among various property companies [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The property management sector has unique appeal for investors, particularly in uncertain external environments, due to its high dividends and stable cash flow, providing a safety net with low risk and anti-cyclical characteristics [4]. - Despite facing challenges in recent years due to the real estate market's downturn, the core value of property management stocks remains unchanged, characterized by a "three excellence" model: excellent light-asset operation, excellent cash flow, and excellent long-term growth potential [4][5]. - The current rapid development phase of the property management industry is driven by urbanization and the increasing demand for high-quality living, with business boundaries expanding beyond traditional residential markets to include commercial, public, and industrial properties [5][6]. Group 2: Company Performance - Shimao Services reported a revenue of 3.62 billion yuan and a core net profit of 282 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a significant discrepancy between market expectations and the company's actual performance [3]. - The company has demonstrated strong independent growth capabilities, with 72% of its managed area and 78% of its contracted area coming from third-party sources, reducing reliance on its parent company [8][18]. - The company achieved a remarkable 54.6% year-on-year increase in new annual contract value from third-party bidding, with a 126.6% increase in newly contracted building area [11]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Shimao Services is actively expanding into non-residential sectors, with over 80% of newly contracted building area in the first half of 2025 coming from non-residential properties, highlighting its strategic value in diversifying its business [14][19]. - The company is focusing on systematic service upgrades across various sectors, aiming for a comprehensive renewal that enhances market competitiveness and injects vitality into urban living [16]. - The company's strategic investments in high-potential urban areas, such as Hangzhou, have led to increased market share and competitive positioning [15][20]. Group 4: Market Misconceptions - The market has overly pessimistic views regarding the risks associated with Shimao Services' ties to real estate companies, underestimating its independent development capabilities [18]. - There is a lack of recognition of the strategic value of Shimao Services' expansion into non-residential sectors, which has become a significant growth driver, contributing 36.22% to total revenue [19]. - The market has not fully appreciated the benefits of Shimao Services' urban deep cultivation strategy, which has created scale effects and cost advantages, nor its ongoing digital transformation efforts that enhance operational efficiency [20][22].

保利发展（600048.SH）2024 年报 及 2025Q1 业绩点评：强化城市深耕 战略，加快增量项目销售 公司发布 2024 年及 2025Q1 业绩：公司 2024 年实现营业总收入 3116.7 亿元， 同比下滑 10.2%，归母净利润 50.0 亿元，同比下降 58.6%.2025Q1 营业总收 入 542.7 亿元，同比增长 9.1%，归母净利润 19.5 亿元，同比下滑 12.3%。 由于近年来销售规模收缩，存量项目去化压力加大，预计未来 2 年营收仍面临 一定的下行压力。受行业下行的影响，公司销售规模自 2022 年以来持续下降， 2024 年销售金额为 3230 亿元，同比下滑 23.5%。我们根据销售规模拟合竣工 规模，测算 2025 年地产销售收入约下滑 8.9%。 市场下行之下，公司强化城市深耕战略，加快高价增量项目销售，有效对冲低 价库存项目去化压力。公司进一步深耕核心城市，28 个核心城市 2024 年销售 占比达到 90%，同比提升 2 个百分点。近三年的拿地和销售均价显著提升，新 增土储计容建面均价从 2021 年的 0.73 万/平大幅度提升至 2024 年的 1.69 万 ...