Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market is currently in a state of weak adjustment. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. With the futures contract in a back structure and positive basis, the futures are at a discount. In the short - term, it shows a slightly weak oscillation, but the overall downside space is limited [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate narrowly during the day, closing at 794 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 2.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 396,000 lots, the open interest was 616,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.766 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term [1]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of mainstream port spot varieties, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port and Super Special powder, both dropped by 8 yuan. The price of the main swap contract was 104.65 (-1.35) US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 841.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 47.2 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened. The iron ore 2 - 5 spread was 16 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The shipping is relatively stable. There may be hurricane and rainfall disturbances in Australia and Brazil. The high - volume shipments in the early stage are arriving at ports one after another. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather disturbances [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was still supported. Steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream was strong [2]. - **Inventory**: The port continued to accumulate inventory, the berthing inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated. The overall inventory pressure was still building up. The downstream replenishment demand and market sentiment supported the futures and spot prices [2]. Macro - level - **Overseas**: Consumption provides support, inflation declines, and the Federal Reserve maintains a wait - and - see attitude. The US economy is in a "light to moderate" expansion range, with regional performance differentiation. Employment is mainly for filling vacancies, and labor employment is relatively stable. Price pressure has generally eased, but there are still differences in tariff - related categories [4]. - **Domestic**: Incremental policies are continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The current fundamental reality is still in the off - season, but the incremental policies issued since the fourth quarter have entered a critical period of implementation. The incremental policy statements and the implementation of early - batch projects since January are also expected to continue. The central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Platinum and palladium prices have surged significantly, with platinum futures hitting a limit up for the first time since their listing, driven by strong industrial demand and tightening supply conditions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 15, platinum futures (PT2606) closed up 7%, marking the first limit up since its listing, with a trading volume of 41,832 contracts, a 237% increase [3]. - Palladium futures (PD2606) also saw a substantial rise, closing up 4.73% at 407.6 yuan per gram, with a trading volume increase of 498% [3][4]. - Year-to-date, NYMEX platinum has risen by 97%, while NYMEX palladium has increased by over 73%, outperforming COMEX gold's 65% rise during the same period [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in platinum prices is attributed to increasing industrial demand, particularly from the recovering fuel vehicle sector, and supply constraints from South Africa, which produces over 70% of the world's platinum [4][5]. - The global platinum market is expected to face a supply shortage for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an anticipated annual gap of 21.6 tons due to structural supply tensions and geopolitical trade uncertainties [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that platinum and palladium prices will continue to rise, supported by macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply-demand imbalances [5][6][7]. - The recent listing of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to enhance China's pricing power and risk management capabilities in the platinum group metals market [3][5]. - The long-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations of price fluctuations between $1,300 and $1,800 per ounce for platinum by 2026, driven by demand in the jewelry market and industrial applications [6][7].