铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般 【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡，收于 750.5 元/吨，较前一个 交易日收盘价上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅+0.27%，成交 17.6 万手，持仓量 54.7 万手， 沉淀资金 90.26 亿。铁矿下跌至预判支撑 730 附近之后，呈现一定抗跌，短期以 偏强反弹思路对待。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 750 跌 0，超特粉 638 跌 0， 掉期主力 98.45(+0.15）美元/吨。掉期反弹走强后陷入窄幅震荡，现货持稳。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 785.3 元/吨，基差 34.8 元/吨， 基差小幅收窄；铁矿 5-9 价差 19.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 12 元。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比增加，澳洲发运恢复；本期到港继续走弱，天气影响 到港节奏，后期有望回升；需求端，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂盈利率走弱， 刚需边际回升，关注节后需求支撑力度。库存方面，铁矿港口库存止增，到 港回落叠加钢厂补库使得港口累库压力阶段性缓解，但整体总库 ...

一、市场行情态势回顾 【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 26 日 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡，收于 748.5 元/吨，较前一个 交易日收盘价下跌-4 元/吨，跌幅-0.53%，成交 19.0 万手，持仓量 54.1 万手， 增仓 1.2 万手，沉淀资金 89.02 亿。铁矿下跌至预判支撑 730 附近之后，呈现一 定抗跌，短期以偏强反弹思路对待。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 750 跌-2，超特粉 638 跌-2， 掉期主力 98.85(+0.05）美元/吨。掉期反弹走强后陷入窄幅震荡，现货微跌。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 785.3 元/吨，基差 36.8 元/吨， 基差小幅走扩；铁矿 5-9 价差 16.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 11.5 元。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比增加，澳洲发运恢复；本期到港继续走弱，天气影响 到港节奏，后期有望回升；需求端，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂盈利率走弱， 刚需边际回升，关注节后需求支撑力度。库存方面，铁矿港口库存止增，到 港回落叠加钢厂补库使得港口累库压 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 788.6 元/吨，基差 48.1 元/吨， 基差变化不大；铁矿 5-9 价差 16 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 11 元。 二、基本面梳理 节前发运受到天气影响，目前已经恢复，春节期间没有明显扰动，没有意外 扰动的情况下供应端仍偏宽松，关注天气对发运到港节奏的扰动；需求端铁水产 量边际回升，刚需仍旧偏稳，节前仍有钢厂生产事故发生，可能影响节后铁水复 产节奏，关注节后需求支撑力度。库存方面，整体库存压力仍在积累，节前市场 情绪走弱，盘面表现承压，节后即将召开全国两会，关注市场情绪变化。 整体而言，库存压力仍在积累，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当前市场对节 后需求预期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，节后即将召开两会，宏观预 期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内维持窄幅震荡，收于 740.5 元/吨， 较前一个交易日收盘价下跌-5.5 元/吨，跌幅-0.74%，成交 22 万手，持仓量 51.9 万手，增仓 2.4 万手 ...

Report Summary of Iron Ore Daily by Guantong Futures 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show a decrease in arrivals, alleviating supply pressure. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and although ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the futures contracts present a back structure and a futures discount under a positive basis. After a short - term breakdown, it shows a certain weakness [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Prices**: The main contract of iron ore futures maintained a weak downward trend, closing at 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 1.04% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 216,000 lots, the open interest was 515,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.612 billion yuan. After the breakdown, it remained weak, with attention on further tests around 750 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 2 to 770 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 2 to 665 yuan/ton. The main swap was at 99.3 (-1.3) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined slightly [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 807.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 46.7 yuan/ton, showing little change. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 18 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan. Iron ore was slightly weak in the short - term [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery in Brazilian shipments. The arrivals continued to decline, as the previous drop in shipments was reflected in arrivals. There were expectations of supply disruptions due to weather. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the steel mill profitability weakened, and the rigid demand was stable. As the Spring Festival approached, steel mills accelerated restocking, and as restocking progressed, the support for prices might gradually weaken. In terms of inventory, ports continued to accumulate inventory, the inventory at berth decreased, and steel mill inventories increased significantly. The total inventory pressure was still building up. Market sentiment weakened, and both futures and spot prices were under pressure [2]. Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: The positive policy expectation continues as the macro - mainline, and the expectation of policy intensification in the first quarter to achieve an economic "good start" in the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan" is strengthening. The overall policy environment is favorable, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on risk assets in the first quarter [3]. - **Overseas**: One of the core variables in overseas macro this week is that Kevin Warsh was nominated as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, but the impact on the market is expected to be limited. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", so he is considered a hawkish figure. In addition to monetary policy, investors are also advised to pay attention to the two high - uncertainty risk events of the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weakening trend in the short - term after breaking key levels, but the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The futures contracts present a back structure and positive basis with futures at a discount [1][5] - The overall policy environment in the domestic market in Q1 is warm, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on Q1 risk assets. Overseas, Kevin Warsh's nomination for the new Fed chair is expected to have limited impact on the market, and investors should also focus on the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 768.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 1.66% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 332,000 lots, the open interest was 525,000 lots, and the funds on hold were 8.878 billion yuan. The short - term trend is weak after breaking key levels [1] - Spot prices of mainstream port varieties and swaps declined slightly. The PB powder at Qingdao Port dropped 9 yuan to 775 yuan, the Super Special powder dropped 9 yuan to 660 yuan, and the main swap was 100.75 (- 1.4) US dollars/ton [1] - The basis of the PB powder at Qingdao Port was 44.1 yuan/ton, showing a slight contraction. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts presented a back structure and positive basis, but were slightly weak in the short - term [1] Fundamental梳理 - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery of Brazilian shipments. The arrivals continued to decline, and there were expected disruptions on the supply side due to weather. On the demand side, pig iron production decreased slightly, the steel mill profitability weakened, the rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated as the Spring Festival approached. The support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses [2] - Port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, steel mill inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory pressure was still building up [2] Macro层面 - Domestically, the expectation of positive policies continues as the macro - mainline. There is a growing expectation that policies in Q1 will strengthen to achieve an economic "good start" in the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with a warm overall policy environment [4] - Overseas, Kevin Warsh's nomination for the new Fed chair is expected to have limited market impact. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", and he is considered a hawkish figure. Investors should also pay attention to the high - uncertainty risks of the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [4] Viewpoint总结 - In terms of the iron ore fundamentals, the arrivals decreased, reducing the supply pressure. The rigid demand on the demand side was stable. Although the port inventory was still accumulating, it was gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions were not prominent, but the futures were at a discount under the back structure and positive basis. The short - term trend was weak after breaking key levels [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show that the arrival volume has decreased, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. The demand side has relatively stable rigid demand. Although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradiction is not prominent, but the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount, and the market remains in a narrow - range oscillation [4] Summary by Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated within a narrow range during the day, closing at 781.5 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 4 yuan/ton or 0.51% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 241,000 lots, the open interest was 516,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.866 billion yuan. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term, and attention should be paid to further tests near the support level of 775 [1] - The mainstream spot varieties at the port: the PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), the Super Special powder was 668 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), and the main swap contract was 102.6 (- 0.2) US dollars/ton. The spot price was firm, while the swap price declined slightly [1] - The converted price of PB powder at Qingdao Port to the futures price was 831.5 yuan/ton, with a basis of 50 yuan/ton, and the basis changed little. The spread between the May - September contracts of iron ore was 17 yuan, and the spread between the September - January contracts was 11 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts presented a back structure + positive basis, showing a slight break in the short term. From this perspective, the downside space may still be limited [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery of shipments from Brazil. The arrival volume continued to decline, as the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to the arrival. There are expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. On the demand side, the pig iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, the rigid demand was relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, steel mills are accelerating inventory replenishment, and as the replenishment progresses, the support for prices may gradually weaken [2] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the inventory replenishment speed has accelerated, and the total inventory pressure is still accumulating. The market sentiment has weakened, and both the futures and spot prices are under pressure [2] - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and there is uncertainty about the post - holiday demand. In reality, both the supply and demand sides need to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment [2] Macro - level Analysis - At the domestic macro - level, it is judged that the positive policy expectations continue to be the macro - mainline. From the perspective of policy changes, the expectation that policies will be intensified in the first quarter to achieve a good start for the economy in the "15th Five - Year Plan" year is gradually strengthening, and the overall policy environment is warm, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on risk assets in the first quarter [3] - In overseas macro - aspects, one of the core variables in overseas macro this week is that Kevin Warsh was nominated as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, but it is expected to have limited impact on the market. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", so he is considered a hawkish figure by the market. In addition to monetary policy, investors are also advised to pay attention to two risk events with high uncertainty: the situation between the US and Iran and the US government shutdown [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market has a slightly weakening trend with the futures contract showing a back structure and positive basis, and the overall disk is slightly weak in oscillation. The supply pressure eases due to reduced arrivals, and the demand side has stable rigid demand. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated weakly during the day, closing at 777.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 357,000 lots, the open interest was 519,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.875 billion yuan. It shows a short - term weakening oscillation [1]. - Spot prices: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, decreased by 4 to 791 yuan, and Super Special powder decreased by 4 to 678 yuan. The main swap price was 101.95 (-0.85) US dollars/ton. The spot is firm, and the swap price slightly declined [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 830.1 yuan/ton, and the basis is 52.6 yuan/ton, with a slight expansion of the basis. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore is 17.5 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts is 11 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts present a back structure and a positive basis, showing a short - term breakdown and a weakened oscillation [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased slightly, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and there are expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The short - term supply pressure eases, but the inventory pressure is still increasing [2]. - Demand: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the steel mill profitability weakened, the rigid demand was relatively stable, the steel mill replenishment speed accelerated, and the steel mill inventory increased rapidly. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, the steel mill inventory increased significantly, the replenishment speed accelerated as the Spring Festival approached, and the total inventory pressure was still accumulating [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic macro: This week continues the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The domestic demand recovery rhythm is still slow, the price remains low, the upstream improvement is limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises is weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools are still being implemented, and the macro - environment is mainly for support. The market still needs to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - Overseas macro: The US consumption is still resilient, but the income growth slows down, the savings rate is at a low level, and consumption more depends on credit and employment stability, with weakening internal impetus. The core inflation continues to cool down, the commodity - end pressure eases, but the stickiness of service items still exists. The market trading focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro - environment is still conducive to risk assets maintaining resilience, but policy uncertainty increases, and asset pricing differentiation intensifies [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show that the arrival volume has decreased, and the supply pressure has eased. The demand side has stable rigid demand. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The contradictions in the fundamentals are not prominent, but the futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the overall market remains volatile [4]. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly during the day, closing at 783 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 305,000 lots, the open interest was 521,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.969 billion yuan. The futures market tested the short - term support level near 780 again [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as Qingdao Port PB powder, dropped 5 yuan to 789 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 5 yuan to 675 yuan/ton. The swaps main contract was at 102.8 (-1.05) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined slightly [1]. - Basis and spread: The converted price of Qingdao Port PB powder on the futures market was 822.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 39.5 yuan/ton, with a slight expansion. The spread between the May and September contracts of iron ore was 17 yuan, and the spread between the September and January contracts was 12.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis. The futures market should be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to further testing near the lower support, with limited downward space [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrival volume continued to weaken, and supply was expected to be affected by weather. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, the rigid demand was stable, the inventory replenishment speed of steel mills accelerated, and the steel mill inventory increased rapidly. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly. With the approaching Spring Festival, the inventory replenishment speed accelerated, and the total inventory pressure was still increasing. The short - term supply pressure eased, but the inventory pressure increased. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre - festival inventory replenishment on the demand side supported the iron ore price. The supply - demand situation in reality remained to be verified [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: This week, the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations" continued. The pace of domestic demand recovery was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro - environment was mainly for support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [3]. - Overseas: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down, the savings rate was at a low level, and consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, with weakening internal momentum. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. In this context, the market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of a change in the Fed's leadership, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased, and asset pricing differentiation widened [3].

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Although the inventory pressure is increasing, the demand-side restocking before the Spring Festival supports the ore price. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis, with the futures at a discount [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated within the day, closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.88% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 278,000 lots, the open interest was 541,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.424 billion yuan. The futures price may continue to be slightly strong in the near future [1] - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties and swaps declined slightly. The basis widened slightly, and the iron ore futures contract showed a back structure + positive basis [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while those from Brazil and non-mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, with supply-side disturbances expected due to weather. The molten iron output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the steel mill profit margin weakened. The steel mills' restocking speed accelerated, and the inventory pressure continued to accumulate [2] - The decrease in arrivals eased the short-term supply pressure, but the inventory pressure continued to increase. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre-festival restocking on the demand side supported the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remained to be verified [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, the week continued the pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand was slow, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the willingness of residents and enterprises for long - term financing was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented, and the market was waiting for policy effects and data confirmation [3] - Overseas, the US consumption remained resilient, but its internal driving force was weakening. Core inflation continued to cool, but the stickiness of service items remained. The market's focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, and the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased [3] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show that the supply pressure has eased slightly, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows an overall trend of gradually strengthening in a volatile manner. The supply pressure has eased due to reduced arrivals, the demand side has stable rigid demand, and although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the market has turned stronger again [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **期货价格**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate strongly during the day, closing at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton or 1.98% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 308,000 lots, the open interest was 555,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.758 billion yuan. The futures price stopped falling near the predicted support level of 780 and may continue to fluctuate strongly in the near term, suggesting a low - buying strategy [1]. - **现货价格**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 7 to 797 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder rose 7 to 680 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 104.75 (+1.7) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices strengthened again [1]. - **基差价差端**: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 832.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 19.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis, and the futures market should be treated with a view of fluctuating strength [1]. 基本面梳理 - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to arrivals. There were expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was stable, and steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak. There was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to accumulate, the inventory of berthed ships increased, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still increasing [2]. 宏观层面 - **Domestic**: This week, the domestic market continued the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The recovery rhythm of domestic demand was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro environment was mainly for bottom - support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - **Overseas**: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down and the savings rate was at a low level. Consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, and the internal driving force weakened. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. The market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased and asset pricing differentiation widened [4].