1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show an oscillatory trend. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity issues of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, with increased volatility in the near future. The overall fundamentals are still weak, but the downside space is limited, and it will continue the high - level oscillatory rhythm [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures prices**: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated during the day, closing at 808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or - 0.62% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 158,000 lots, the open interest was 354,000 lots, and the settled funds were 6.29 billion yuan. It is currently oscillating between the support level of around 800 and the resistance level of around 820 [1] - **Spot prices**: Among the mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder rose by 1 to 787 yuan/ton, Super Special powder rose by 1 to 672 yuan/ton, and the main swap was at 105.5 (- 0.75) US dollars/ton. The swap was oscillating at a high level, and the spot prices rose slightly [1] - **Basis and spread**: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 822.5 yuan/ton, with a basis of 14.5 yuan/ton, and the basis widened slightly. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 17.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis due to the impact of a hurricane that closed some Australian ports last week. Although shipments have gradually recovered and are expected to pick up later, the US - Iran conflict has disrupted the shipping and arrival rhythm. The cost of iron ore shipping has increased due to high oil prices, and the liquidity of some spot varieties is limited [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills increased on a month - on - month basis, and the production of molten iron continued to resume. The production is gradually returning to normal, and attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventory decreased on a month - on - month basis, the inventory of ships at ports increased due to concentrated arrivals, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills decreased slightly [2] Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: Policy support continues, corporate profits are improving, and physical work volume shows a structural improvement. Industrial enterprise profits from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, manufacturing profits increased by 18.9% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing profits increased by 58.7% year - on - year. Real estate transactions have marginally improved, but land transactions and listing prices in first - tier cities are still weak. The issuance of special bonds is relatively fast, but the elasticity of physical work volume in infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale [4] - **Overseas**: The US economy has not stalled, but the combination of "weak demand + high oil price risk" restricts the short - term policy shift space of the Federal Reserve. The overseas macro - environment shows a pattern of "growth not stalling, inflationary disturbances not receding, and limited policy space" [4] Viewpoint Summary - The supply side of iron ore remains loose, the molten iron output on the demand side still has room for further recovery, and attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand. Port inventory has declined to some extent and has been transferred downstream. Overall, the fundamentals are still weak. Due to geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continuous BACK structure, the downside space is limited, and it will continue the high - level oscillatory rhythm [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show an oscillating trend. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity issues of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, with increased volatility recently. The overall fundamentals are weak, but due to geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continued BACK structure, the downside space is limited, and it will continue the high - level oscillating rhythm [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated during the day, closing at 813 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 143,000 lots, the open interest was 371,000 lots, and the settled funds were 6.643 billion yuan. It is currently oscillating between the short - term support near 800 and the short - term resistance near 830 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 4 to 790, and Super Special powder rose 4 to 672. The main swap was at 107.2 (- 0.05) US dollars/ton. The swap was oscillating at a high level, and the spot prices rose slightly [1] - Basis and spread: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 824.7 yuan/ton, with a basis of 11.7 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 22 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 19.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - The US - Iran conflict disrupts the shipping and arrival rhythm of overseas mines, and the Australian hurricane still affects shipping. High oil prices push up the shipping cost of iron ore, and the liquidity of some spot varieties is restricted, making it difficult to trade the overall supply - demand relaxation pressure of iron ore. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity issues of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, and the recent volatility may increase [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: Policy support continues, profit improvement is evident, and physical work volume shows a structural improvement. From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 15.2% year - on - year, the profits of the manufacturing industry increased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 58.7% year - on - year. Real estate transactions have marginally recovered, but land transactions and the listing prices in first - tier cities are still weak. The issuance progress of special bonds is relatively fast, but the elasticity of infrastructure physical work volume may be lower than the nominal scale. Overall, the domestic macro situation is in a state of "continued policy support, marginal profit improvement, and slow demand recovery" [4] - Overseas: The US economy has not stalled, but the combination of "weak demand + high oil price risk" still limits the short - term turning space of the Federal Reserve. The overseas macro environment presents a pattern of "no stall in growth, persistent inflation disturbances, and limited policy space" [4] Viewpoint Summary - On the iron ore fundamentals, the supply side remains loose, the molten iron output on the demand side still has room for further recovery. Attention should be paid to the support strength of peak - season demand. Port inventories have declined to some extent and shifted downstream. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Due to geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continued BACK structure, the downside space is limited, and it will continue the high - level oscillating rhythm [5]

1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡稍显偏强，收于 817 元/吨，较 前一个交易日收盘价涨+10.5 元/吨，涨幅+1.3%，成交 21.6 万手，持仓量 40.8 万手，沉淀资金 73.34 亿。目前下方短期支撑 800 附近，上方短期压力 830 附近， 仍处于压力与支撑区间震荡。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 795 涨+10，超特粉 678 涨+10， 掉期主力 107.45(+1.85）美元/吨。掉期高位震荡、现货拉涨。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 832.4 元/吨，基差 15.4 元/吨， 基差收缩；铁矿 5-9 价差 29.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 20 元。 【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：短期扰动因素较多，基本面压力仍存 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 26 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 三、宏观层面 国内方面，"十五五" 规划纲要公布，在延续"十四五"指标框架基础上， 上调数字经济核心产业增加值占比目标，新增民生托育养老与绿色非化石能源相 关指标；同时将整治内卷式竞争、推进碳达峰工作前置，完善统一大市场与双碳 考核认证制度。当前国内宏观经济总体表现平 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The supply side remains loose, the demand side sees an increase in hot metal production, and the overall fundamentals are still weak. Under the dual disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic, and the iron ore futures and spot prices will continue the high - level oscillation rhythm [2][5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures adjusted weakly within the day, closing at 806.5 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 379,000 lots, the open interest was 414,000 lots, and the settled funds were 7.351 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 795, and the short - term resistance is around 825 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, dropped 3 to 796 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 3 to 676 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 105.3 (-2.45) US dollars/ton. The swap price fell from the high, and the spot price declined slightly [1] - Basis and spread: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 829.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22.6 yuan/ton, and the basis widened. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore was 29 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts was 20.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period recovered month - on - month. Geopolitical disturbances continued, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated. The new CEO of BHP will take office on July 1, 2026, and its impact on negotiation progress and spot liquidity should be noted [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. After the Two Sessions, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. The hot metal production recovered month - on - month, and there is still room for recovery. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory declined, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: The "15th Five - Year Plan" outline was announced, raising the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries, adding indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and it has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and CRB index are at seasonal highs, and South Korea's exports in early March increased significantly, indicating that external demand remains resilient [3] - Overseas: The Iranian geopolitical situation continues to affect the financial market, and major asset prices fluctuated significantly today [4] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show a loose supply, an increase in hot metal production on the demand side, and a decline in port inventory with a transfer to downstream. The overall fundamentals are weak. Under the dual disturbances of supply and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic, and the iron ore futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate at a high level [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Iron ore fundamentals are still weak, with a loose supply and rising hot metal production on the demand side. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand. Under the dual disturbances of supply and geopolitics, it's difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. The iron ore futures and spot show a positive basis and the BACK structure continues, with limited short - term downside space and a high - level oscillation pattern. Focus on further tests near the upper pressure [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated slightly stronger during the day, closing at 819 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 263,000 lots, the open interest was 442,000 lots, and the settled funds were 7.963 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 795 and the short - term pressure is around 825 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder, remained unchanged at 798 yuan, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 675 yuan. The main swap contract was 108.25 (+0) US dollars/ton. The swap was in high - level oscillation and the spot price remained unchanged [1] - Basis and spread: The converted futures price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 829.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10.1 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 32.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Iron ore shipments increased month - on - month, while arrivals decreased. The shipping plans of mines were affected by the US - Iran conflict, and some cargo ships changed their destinations. Although the overall supply was still relatively loose, the shipment and arrival rhythm was affected, and the liquidity of some spot varieties was limited [2] - Demand: Hot metal production significantly rebounded, and the profitability rate of steel mills increased. After the Two Sessions ended, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. There was still room for the recovery of hot metal production, depending on the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: Port inventory and berthing decreased slightly, while steel mill inventory increased. Without significant disturbances, it was difficult for the total inventory to show obvious destocking [2] Macro - level - Domestic: The "15th Five - Year Plan" outline was announced, raising the target of the added value ratio of the core digital economy industries, adding indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable and has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. Domestic port container throughput and the CRB index are at seasonal highs, and the strong exports of South Korea in early March confirm the resilience of external demand [3] - Overseas: The US - Iran geopolitical conflict continues, and the expected reduction in crude oil supply continues to push up oil prices. The Fed's interest rate decision in March was hawkish, increasing the market's expectation of "stagflation" in the US economy in the second quarter, and the overseas economic operation logic will gradually shift from trading "inflation" to "stagflation" [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, iron ore is affected by supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to price based on fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate. Medium - to long - term, the high - inventory pressure is hard to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly fluctuating. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase [2][5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures prices**: The main iron ore futures contract showed a slightly stronger intraday oscillation, closing at 815.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 247,000 lots, the open interest was 450,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.077 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 795, and the short - term resistance is around 825, showing a slightly stronger oscillation within the support - resistance range [1] - **Spot prices**: The mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder, rose 3 to 794, and Super Special powder rose 3 to 673. The swap main contract was at 108.35 (+0.9) US dollars/ton. The swap was highly volatile, and the spot prices rose slightly [1] - **Basis and spread**: The converted futures price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 826.9 yuan/ton, with a basis of 11.4 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 34.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries showing month - on - month rebounds. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. After the Two Sessions, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. The hot metal production recovered month - on - month, and some steel mills extended the resumption of production. There is still room for hot metal recovery. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory declined, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory accumulated [2] - **Overall situation**: Under the background of continuous supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to price iron ore based on fundamentals. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - to long - term, the high - inventory pressure is hard to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly fluctuating [2] Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: After the important meetings, the domestic macro - economy has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, the domestic export, inflation, and financial data were mainly released, and the overall data performance was relatively good. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The reality of external demand resilience has been initially confirmed, and the resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels. High - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of domestic demand investment repair, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - **Overseas**: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and the market's concern about the US economic stagflation in the first quarter has further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and amplitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show that the supply is still loose, the hot metal production on the demand side has decreased, the resumption of production has been delayed, and the port inventory has declined to some extent. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Under the double disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on the fundamental logic. The iron ore futures and spot show a positive basis, and the BACK structure continues. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper resistance [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, iron ore is affected by multiple factors including supply and geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to price based on fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - to - long - term, the high inventory pressure of iron ore is difficult to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If the macro - disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be greater, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - term [2] - Overall, the iron ore fundamentals are weak with a loose supply, a decline in molten iron production on the demand side, a delayed resumption of production, and an accumulation of port inventory. In the short - term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures Price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated during the day, closing at 807.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193,000 lots, the position was 447,000 lots, and the settled funds were 7.939 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 790, and the short - term resistance is around 820. In the near future, it may continue to face pressure near the upper resistance and enter a consolidation phase [1] - Spot Price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, dropped 1 to 793 yuan/ton, and Super Special Powder dropped 1 to 669 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was 107.05 (- 0.3) US dollars/ton. The swap was highly volatile, and the spot price declined slightly [1] - Basis and Spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures surface was 825.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 18.3 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly contracted. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 31.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 19.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil and non - mainstream countries showing an increase. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2] - Demand: There was a mismatch in the rhythm of blast furnace inspections and resumptions. The molten iron production decreased significantly month - on - month this period, while the steel mill profitability rate increased. After the Two Sessions, the molten iron production is likely to recover month - on - month, and the daily output of sintered ore increased. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory decreased slightly, and the mill inventory decreased slightly [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the important meeting, the domestic macro - economy entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, domestic export, inflation, and financial data were released, showing relatively good performance. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The resilience of external demand has been initially confirmed, while the resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels, and high - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of domestic demand investment repair, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - Overseas: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility of a continued high - oil - price environment, and concerns about the economic stagflation in the US in the first quarter have further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the easing of liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The iron ore market is facing short - term disturbances and fundamental pressures. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the medium - term, it is expected to be weakly volatile. The overall fundamental situation is weak, but due to supply and geopolitical disturbances, the short - term downward space is limited, and it may enter a high - level volatile consolidation phase [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures rebounded with a bias towards strength intraday, closing at 811 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day's closing price, with a trading volume of 189,000 lots, an open interest of 456,000 lots, and a settled capital of 8.127 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 790, and the short - term pressure above is around 820. It may continue to face pressure near the upper pressure and enter a volatile consolidation [1]. - The mainstream spot varieties at the port: the price of PB powder at Qingdao Port remained unchanged at 798 yuan/ton, the price of Super Special powder remained unchanged at 675 yuan/ton, and the price of the main swap was 107.9 (- 0.9) US dollars/ton. The swap was highly volatile, while the spot price had little fluctuation [1]. - The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 831.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20.3 yuan/ton, and the basis widened. The spread between the May and September contracts of iron ore was 32 yuan, and the spread between the September and January contracts was 21 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil and non - mainstream countries showing an increase. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2]. - Demand side: The rhythm of blast furnace inspections and restarts was mismatched. The molten iron output this period decreased significantly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills increased, and after the Two Sessions, the molten iron output is likely to recover month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the support strength of peak - season demand [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly month - on - month, the inventory under berthing decreased slightly, and the mill inventory decreased slightly. There are still disturbance expectations in supply and the macro - environment, the liquidity expectation of some spot varieties is tightened, the futures and spot prices are strengthening, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the important meeting, the domestic macro - environment has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, domestic export, inflation, and financial data were mainly released, and the overall data performance was relatively good. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The reality of external demand resilience has been initially confirmed, and the resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital aspects. High - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the repair progress of domestic demand investment, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [3]. - Overseas: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and the market's concern about the economic stagflation in the first quarter of the United States has further increased. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation promoted by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and amplitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [3]. View Summary The iron ore fundamentals are still loose on the supply side, the molten iron output on the demand side has decreased, the restart rhythm has been postponed, and the port inventory has accumulated. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Under the double disturbances of supply and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. The positive basis of iron ore futures and spot and the continuation of the BACK structure limit the short - term downward space, and it may enter a high - level volatile consolidation. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, iron ore is expected to fluctuate due to supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, and it is difficult to price based on fundamentals. It may be in high - level shock consolidation, and the downward space is limited for now. In the medium - term, the high - inventory pressure of iron ore is difficult to relieve, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Overall, the iron ore fundamentals are weak with loose supply, decreased demand, and accumulated port inventory [2][4]. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures rebounded with a strong bias during the day, closing at 816.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 210,000 lots, the open interest was 462,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.294 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 790, and the short - term pressure above is around 820. In the near future, it may continue to be under pressure near the upper pressure and fall into shock consolidation [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream varieties of port spot, Qingdao Port PB powder was 793 (unchanged), Super Special powder was 671 (unchanged), and the main swap was 109 (+1.08) US dollars/ton. The swap rose slightly again, and the spot price fluctuated little [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 825.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 9.3 yuan/ton, and the basis shrank significantly. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 31 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 20.5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil and non - mainstream countries showing month - on - month recoveries. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2]. - Demand side: The rhythms of blast furnace maintenance and resumption of production were mismatched. The pig iron output this period decreased significantly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills increased. After the Two Sessions, the pig iron output is likely to recover month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, the pressured port inventory decreased slightly, and the mill inventory decreased slightly [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the important meeting, the domestic macro has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The overall data of exports, inflation and finance released this week are relatively good, and the macro - fundamentals maintain resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels, and high - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the repair progress of domestic demand investment, the impact of external imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [3]. - Overseas: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and concerns about the economic stagflation in the first quarter of the United States have further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft - landing" expectation driven by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and amplitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [3]. Viewpoint Summary - Comprehensively, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, with loose supply, decreased pig iron output, delayed resumption of production, and accumulated port inventory. Under the double disturbances of supply - side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continued BACK structure, the short - term downward space is limited, and it may fall into high - level shock consolidation. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The iron ore market is expected to experience short - term high - level narrow - range fluctuations and show a slightly stronger tendency. Although the iron ore fundamentals face challenges such as disturbances in the shipping end and high inventory pressure, the positive basis and the continuation of the BACK structure limit the short - term downward space. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly stronger during the day, closing at 787.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193,000 lots, the holding volume was 475,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.229 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 770, and the short - term pressure is around 795. It may fluctuate narrowly between the short - term pressure and support levels in the near future [1]. - Spot prices: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 773 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 655 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was 104.2 (+0.3) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to strengthen while the spot prices were unchanged [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 803.8 yuan/ton, and the basis was 16.3 yuan/ton, with a slight contraction. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore was 29 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts was 18 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with declines in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period increased significantly as the previous high shipments gradually arrived. The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly on a month - on - month basis, the berthing inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. Although the shipping has recovered, there are still expectations of disturbances, and the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term [2]. - Demand side: The number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and there were environmental protection restrictions in some areas during the Two Sessions. The molten iron output decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, the steel mill profitability rate declined, and the复产 rhythm of molten iron was postponed. However, it is likely to recover seasonally later, and attention should be paid to the support strength of peak - season demand [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the release of the "Report", the policy expectation of the market for the active policy in the first half of the year to support the economic start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will gradually converge, and then it will gradually turn to the verification stage of real data [4]. - Overseas: For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it is important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, which will affect the market's judgment duration of inflation and economy. The Fed will only react when the long - term inflation expectation changes. It is too early to discuss the duration of the war at present, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation portfolio construction. In the short term, it is advisable to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [4].