Core Insights - The fiscal revenue in China for the first ten months of 2025 shows a steady recovery, with public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year-on-year, while expenditure growth has slowed down [1] - Tax revenue has been a significant contributor to the overall revenue increase, with notable growth in various tax categories [3] - Infrastructure-related spending is expected to rebound due to new policy measures and increased project implementation [5][6] Revenue Performance - Total public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, with tax revenue at 15.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.7% [1] - Non-tax revenue decreased by 3.1%, amounting to 3.31 trillion yuan [1] - Major tax categories showed growth: VAT increased by 4%, consumption tax by 2.4%, corporate income tax by 1.9%, and personal income tax by 11.5% [3] Sectoral Tax Contributions - The equipment manufacturing and modern service sectors demonstrated strong tax revenue performance [4] - Specific sectors such as computer and communication equipment manufacturing saw a tax revenue increase of 12.7%, while scientific research and technical services grew by 14.8% [4] Expenditure Trends - Total public budget expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - Key areas such as social security, education, and health saw significant expenditure increases, with social security and employment spending growing by 9.3% [5] - Infrastructure-related spending in agriculture, forestry, and water management decreased by 9%, although the decline rate has narrowed [5] Future Outlook - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to support infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter and early next year [6] - The central government has allocated additional funds for project construction, indicating a proactive adjustment in response to slowing infrastructure growth [6]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January-February 2025 shows unusual trends, with public fiscal revenue experiencing a negative year-on-year growth while personal income tax saw a significant increase, reaching its highest growth rate in nearly 10 months. This divergence raises questions about the underlying factors driving these changes [1][3]. Group 1: Personal Income Tax Growth - The high growth rate of personal income tax at 26.7% year-on-year is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, which affected the collection of year-end bonuses. In years where the Spring Festival falls in January, the peak for personal income tax collection occurs in February, while in years where it falls in February, the peak occurs in March. This year's earlier Spring Festival compared to last year has amplified the growth in personal income tax for January-February [1][3]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Dynamics - Positive contributors to tax revenue include the securities transaction stamp duty and value-added tax, both benefiting from supportive policies. The securities transaction stamp duty has shown double-digit growth for five consecutive months due to increased trading enthusiasm in the stock market since the "924" policy [3][7]. - Negative contributors include corporate income tax, which saw a year-on-year decline of 10.4%, indicating ongoing challenges for businesses. Additionally, consumption-related taxes such as consumption tax and vehicle purchase tax are weaker than last year, and taxes related to imports are also experiencing negative growth. The real estate sector remains under pressure, with real estate-related taxes declining by 11.4% year-on-year and local land transfer revenue decreasing by 15.7% [7][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Fiscal expenditure is shifting focus from infrastructure to technology and social welfare. Compared to last year, infrastructure-related fiscal spending has significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 6.2% in January-February 2025, contrasting with a growth of 17.9% in the same period of 2024 [10][13]. - In contrast, expenditures related to technology, education, social security, and employment continue to show high growth rates of 10.5%, 7.7%, and 5.5% respectively, indicating a sustained commitment to these areas [13].