Group 1 - Nvidia, with only 36,000 employees, is becoming a key force in determining the global macroeconomic direction for 2026 [1] - The Deutsche Bank report emphasizes that technology spending, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, is crucial for understanding the current resilience of the US economy [1][3] - Without the boost from technology-related spending, the US economy would likely be close to or already in a recession [1] Group 2 - The core driver of technology spending is the "massive AI capital expenditures," which are expected to continue as long as the potential profitability of AI is not fundamentally questioned [3] - This significant capital expenditure explains why weak employment data has not hindered economic growth and why global trade remains resilient despite generally weak global demand [3] - The report narrows its focus to Nvidia as a central player in this AI wave, suggesting that Nvidia may hold the key to the global macroeconomic landscape in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January-February 2025 shows unusual trends, with public fiscal revenue experiencing a negative year-on-year growth while personal income tax saw a significant increase, reaching its highest growth rate in nearly 10 months. This divergence raises questions about the underlying factors driving these changes [1][3]. Group 1: Personal Income Tax Growth - The high growth rate of personal income tax at 26.7% year-on-year is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, which affected the collection of year-end bonuses. In years where the Spring Festival falls in January, the peak for personal income tax collection occurs in February, while in years where it falls in February, the peak occurs in March. This year's earlier Spring Festival compared to last year has amplified the growth in personal income tax for January-February [1][3]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Dynamics - Positive contributors to tax revenue include the securities transaction stamp duty and value-added tax, both benefiting from supportive policies. The securities transaction stamp duty has shown double-digit growth for five consecutive months due to increased trading enthusiasm in the stock market since the "924" policy [3][7]. - Negative contributors include corporate income tax, which saw a year-on-year decline of 10.4%, indicating ongoing challenges for businesses. Additionally, consumption-related taxes such as consumption tax and vehicle purchase tax are weaker than last year, and taxes related to imports are also experiencing negative growth. The real estate sector remains under pressure, with real estate-related taxes declining by 11.4% year-on-year and local land transfer revenue decreasing by 15.7% [7][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Fiscal expenditure is shifting focus from infrastructure to technology and social welfare. Compared to last year, infrastructure-related fiscal spending has significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 6.2% in January-February 2025, contrasting with a growth of 17.9% in the same period of 2024 [10][13]. - In contrast, expenditures related to technology, education, social security, and employment continue to show high growth rates of 10.5%, 7.7%, and 5.5% respectively, indicating a sustained commitment to these areas [13].