东方金诚宏观研究 7 月财政收入端有所改善，支出端继续发力 —— 2025 年 7 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布的数据显示，2025 年 7 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 2.7%， 6 月为-0.3%；7 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 3.0%，6 月为 0.4%；1-7 月全国政府性 基金收入累计同比下降 0.7%，1-6 月为-2.4%；1-7 月全国政府性基金支出累计同比增长 31.7%，1-6 月为 30.0%。 主要观点：7 月广义财政收入同比增速从上月的 2.8%继续加快至 3.6%，广义财政支 出同比增速则较上月回落 5.5 个百分点至 12.1%，但处于两位数增长，显示收入端延续改 善，支出端则体现财政发力特征。往后看，下半年财政将继续发力支撑支出端，尤其是在 基建投资类。一方面，在上半年用于隐债置换的地方政府再融资专项债集中发行后，下半 年用于项目建设的地方政府新增专项债将大规模发行；另一方面，预计下半年有可能上调 支持"两重"投资的超长期特别国债发行规模，用于项目建设的地方政府新增专项债和国 企稳增长扩投资专项债发行额度也可能上调。另外，由于今年上半年财政前 ...

2025.08.22 本文字数：1631，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈益刊 更加积极财政政策陆续落地，推动经济平稳运行。 根据财政部最新数据，今年前7个月广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入合计约 15.9万亿元，与去年同期基本持平。广义财政支出约21.5万亿元，同比增长约9.3%。广义财政支出超出 收入约5.6万亿元，同比增长约47%。 根据中国人民银行数据，今年前7个月，政府债券净融资8.9万亿元，同比增4.88万亿元。 财政支出规模及结构是衡量财政政策扩张程度的重要指标。今年前7个月广义财政支出增速（9.3%）明 显高于经济增速（上半年国内生产总值同比增长5.3%），折射出更加积极财政政策的落地。 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪认为，整体来看，前7个月财政数据总量和结构基本延续持续改善趋 势。在土地收入维持平稳、印花税（含证券交易印花税）大幅增长情形下，7月广义财政收入增速改 善、回暖。在政府债发行前置下，广义财政支出力度加快上行，对经济增长起到了重要支撑。 今年以来，广义财政收入降幅持续缩窄，直至今年前7个月这一数据与去年同期持平。这主要得益于税 收收入和地方政府土地出让收 ...

Revenue Insights - In July, general public budget revenue reached 2.03 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the first positive growth since the beginning of the year[3] - Monthly revenue growth rebounded significantly by 3.0 percentage points to a new high of 2.6%[3] - Tax revenue increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.0%, the highest monthly figure since December of the previous year[3] Tax Contributions - The contribution of stamp duty saw a notable improvement, significantly influenced by favorable capital market performance in July[3] - Non-tax revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.9%, exacerbating the overall revenue growth pressure[3] - Value-added tax contribution fell by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting ongoing domestic demand weakness and low inflation impact on corporate revenues[3] Fiscal Expenditure and Gaps - Fiscal expenditure in July rose by 2.7 percentage points to 3.0%, with most major expenditure areas showing varying degrees of increase[12] - The budget revenue-expenditure gap narrowed slightly to 2.49 trillion, but remains substantial, necessitating continued government bond financing[12] - Cumulative fiscal deficit from January to July expanded by 1.83 trillion, with government debt financing reaching 67.1% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the previous two years[26] Real Estate and Land Revenue - Government fund budget revenue fell sharply by 11.9% year-on-year to 8.9%, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in land transfer revenue[18] - The contribution of land transfer revenue to government fund budget revenue decreased by 11.1 percentage points to 5.3%[18] - The real estate market remains unstable, with significant imbalances in housing price-to-income ratios in major cities, affecting land market activity[18] Future Outlook - If domestic and external demand continues to decline, there is a pressing need for the central government to adopt a more aggressive fiscal expansion strategy[26] - The potential impact of new tariffs from the U.S. on exports necessitates ongoing monitoring of economic indicators[26] - The overall economic environment suggests that substantial improvements in fiscal revenue are unlikely in the coming months[3]

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first seven months, the national general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing the decline seen in the first half of the year [3] - National general public budget expenditure was 160737 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security, education, and health expenditures [3] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with local government fund revenue down 1.8%, indicating a continued downturn in the land market [3][4] Banking Sector - Several village and town banks have lowered deposit rates by 10 to 20 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of declining deposit rates across the banking sector [5] - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.00%, while the five-year LPR is at 3.50%, indicating stable lending conditions [5] - The banking sector faces pressure on profitability despite lower funding costs, with weak demand for new loans impacting growth [6] Xiaomi's Performance - Xiaomi reported a 30.5% year-on-year increase in Q2 revenue, reaching 1160 billion yuan, with a net profit of 108 billion yuan, up 75.4% [9] - The automotive business saw significant growth, with revenue from smart electric vehicles increasing by 233.9% to 213 billion yuan, indicating a strong second growth curve for the company [10] - Despite strong performance in the automotive sector, traditional smartphone sales showed signs of weakness, with market competition intensifying [9][10] Pop Mart's Financial Results - Pop Mart's revenue surged by 204.4% year-on-year to 138.8 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 396.5% to 45.7 billion yuan [11] - The overseas market has become a key growth driver, with international revenue rising by 440% [11] - The company is shifting focus from blind boxes to higher-margin plush toys, indicating a strategic pivot to enhance profitability [11][12] Gaming Industry Developments - Game Science released a teaser for "Black Myth: Zhong Kui," indicating ongoing development in the single-player action RPG genre [13] - The success of "Black Myth: Wukong" has not led to a surge in domestic single-player game development, highlighting challenges in the industry [14] Meta's AI Team Restructuring - Meta is restructuring its AI team into four independent departments to accelerate its "superintelligence" goals, reflecting a strategic shift in response to competitive pressures [15][16] - The company is facing challenges in AI product innovation, necessitating a focus on core talent and effective restructuring to remain competitive [16] Stock Market Trends - The stock market showed resilience with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.04%, reaching new highs, despite some sectors experiencing corrections [17][18] - Market activity remains robust, with over 3600 stocks rising, indicating a strong overall market sentiment [17]

Fiscal Performance - General fiscal expenditure cumulative year-on-year growth reached 9.3%, aligning with the annual budget level[3] - General fiscal revenue for January to July was 13.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while expenditure was 16.1 trillion yuan, up 3.4%[6] - In July, general fiscal revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while expenditure decreased by 12.4%[9] Revenue and Taxation - Tax revenue has shown positive year-on-year growth for four consecutive months, with July's tax revenue increasing by 4.6%[9] - Major tax categories such as VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax grew by 4.3%, 5.4%, 6.4%, and 13.9% respectively[9] - Non-tax revenue saw a decline, with July's non-tax revenue down 12.4% year-on-year[9] Expenditure Trends - Social security, health, and education expenditures increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 14.2%, and 4.6% respectively[9] - Infrastructure spending has been reduced, with traditional infrastructure sectors showing negative growth[9] - Debt interest payments rose to 8.9% year-on-year, indicating increasing pressure on debt management[9] Land Sales and Special Bonds - Land sale revenue continued to show positive growth, increasing by 7% year-on-year, supported by active land market transactions[9] - Special bonds and specific government bonds have significantly bolstered fund expenditures, with fund spending growing by 31.7% year-on-year[9] Government Debt and Future Outlook - The front-loading of government debt has boosted fiscal expenditure, but expectations for economic stability still require fiscal support[9] - Excluding capital injections and debt relief funds, general fiscal expenditure growth would drop from 9.3% to 2.9%[9] - The net financing of government debt is expected to decrease in the second half of the year, impacting local government cash flow and economic indicators[9]

Group 1 - In July, national general public budget revenue showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1] - For the first seven months, the total general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, indicating a positive turnaround compared to the previous period [1] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5%, the highest growth rate of the year, contributing to a significant narrowing of the revenue decline in the first seven months [2] Group 2 - The corporate income tax decreased by 0.4% in the first seven months, but the decline was significantly narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, which was a key factor in the growth of tax revenue in July [2] - The growth in tax revenue in July was supported by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the strong correlation between price factors and tax revenue [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 62.5% in the first seven months, reflecting a recovery in market confidence [2] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 33% [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining a focus on social welfare spending [3] - Expenditure in social security and employment grew by 9.8%, indicating a continued emphasis on improving public welfare [3] Group 4 - Local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributed to a government fund budget expenditure growth of 31.7% in the first seven months, amounting to 2.89 trillion yuan [4] - With the reduction of disruptions from extreme weather, infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to sufficient project and funding support [4]

Group 1 - The Trump administration has significantly expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, imposing a 50% tariff on over 400 product categories, including firefighting equipment, machinery, construction materials, and specialty chemicals made from steel and aluminum [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that the new measures cover 407 new product categories, aiming to close loopholes and support the revival of the U.S. steel and aluminum industries [1] - Experts predict that the impact of these tariffs will be extensive, with the current steel and aluminum tariffs covering at least $320 billion in imported goods, which is expected to further increase inflationary pressures in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] Group 2 - S&P Global indicated that the substantial revenue generated from the broad tariff policy will largely offset the recent significant tax cuts and spending reductions, maintaining the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating at AA+ [2] - The report warns that if the U.S. deficit continues to expand over the next two to three years without effective spending control or addressing the fiscal gap caused by tax cuts, there may be a downgrade in the rating [2] - Despite the increase in customs tariff revenue, the federal budget deficit still widened by approximately 20% during the same period [2]

Group 1 - In July, national general public budget revenue showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1] - For the first seven months, national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, indicating a positive turnaround compared to the first half of the year [1] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5%, the highest this year, contributing to a significant narrowing of the revenue decline in the first seven months [2] Group 2 - The corporate income tax decreased by 0.4% in the first seven months, but the decline was significantly reduced by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half, contributing to the growth of tax revenue in July [2] - The securities transaction stamp tax saw a year-on-year increase of 62.5%, reflecting a recovery in market confidence [2] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 33% [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining a focus on social welfare spending [3] Group 4 - Local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributed to a government fund budget expenditure growth of 31.7%, with 2.89 trillion yuan spent in the first seven months [4] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to sufficient project and funding support [4]

全国狭义财政收入由负转正，折射经济稳中向好。 8月19日，财政部披露今年前7个月财政收支情况。1~7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增 长0.1%。 今年以来全国一般公共预算收入增速出现下滑，不过降幅逐步缩窄，随着7月份收入增幅（2.6%）创下 年内新高，带动全国一般公共预算收入累计增速首次实现由负转正。 近几个月税收收入保持增长，折射经济运行向好。不过总体来看税收收入累计增速依然低于经济增速 （上半年经济增速为5.3%）。 财政部数据显示，今年前7个月全国非税收入24906亿元，同比增长2%。这一增幅明显低于去年同期数 据（12%）。 除了一般公共预算收入外，以地方卖地收入为主的政府性基金收入也是广义财政收入重要的组成部分。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖近日公开表示，受多重因素影响，7月份部分经济指标有所波动，但主要 指标累计增速保持总体平稳，就业物价总体稳定，经济平稳运行态势没有改变。 税收收入方面，今年前7个月，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比下降0.3%，这一降幅持续缩窄。其中7 月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。 对于税收增速与经济增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of tax revenue in July, highlighting a 4% year-on-year increase, while non-tax revenue continues to decline, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income by the government [1][5]. Revenue Analysis - In the first seven months, general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year, meeting the initial budget target, with tax revenue showing a cumulative decline of 0.3%, leaving room for improvement towards the annual target of 3.7% [1][5]. - The four major tax categories performed strongly, with personal income tax rising by 13.9% year-on-year, significantly exceeding seasonal levels, attributed to factors such as a strong equity market and improved tax collection management [10][11]. - Corporate income tax showed a cumulative decline of 0.4% year-on-year, reflecting low corporate profitability amid low PPI levels, although July saw a monthly increase of 6.4% [10][11]. - Domestic consumption tax increased by 5.4% year-on-year, influenced by previous adjustments in consumption tax policies for automobiles [10][11]. - Stamp duty on securities transactions surged by 58% year-on-year in July, marking a significant increase [10][11]. Expenditure Analysis - In July, general public budget expenditure rose by 3.0% year-on-year, driven primarily by social security, health care, and debt servicing, while infrastructure spending declined by 3.6% [2][12]. - Cumulative expenditure from January to July increased by 3.4% year-on-year, slightly below the budget target of 4.4%, indicating a slower spending pace compared to the previous year [2][12]. - The increase in fiscal deposits is attributed to the front-loaded issuance of government bonds, which has allowed for smoother expenditure patterns and potential recovery in fiscal spending growth in the coming months [2][12]. Land Revenue and Market Trends - Land transfer revenue in July grew by 7.2% year-on-year, although cumulative growth for the year narrowed to -4.6% [3][18]. - High-frequency data indicates a 31.5% year-on-year decline in land transfer revenue for residential land in 300 cities in the first half of August, primarily influenced by first- and second-tier cities [3][18]. - The government is expected to implement strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, which may impact future fiscal policies and land revenue [3][18]. Infrastructure Investment Insights - Weak infrastructure investment in June and July is identified as a macroeconomic characteristic, potentially leading to looser narrow liquidity conditions [4][21]. - The government has emphasized the need to accelerate effective investment and the disbursement of new policy financial tools, which is likely to support construction activity in the latter half of the year [4][21].