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8月财政数据点评:增量政策渐行渐近
LIANCHU SECURITIES· 2025-09-24 06:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The economic repair momentum is weakening, and incremental policies are urgently needed. The latest economic data shows that the economic growth momentum continues to slow down, with fixed - asset investment, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment declining, and real - estate investment still having double - digit declines. Consumption repair is unstable, and deflation pressure persists. The economic fundamentals are still weak, and incremental policies need to be quickly implemented to address multiple constraints such as investment, consumption, and debt resolution risks [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fiscal Revenue Growth Improves Continuously, Tax Revenue Increases Slightly - General public budget revenue growth rate continues to rise, with local fiscal revenue being the main contributor and the drag from central fiscal revenue weakening. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue reached 0.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, exceeding the annual budget target by 0.1%. The central fiscal revenue has been improving, with the decline narrowing for 6 consecutive months, while local fiscal revenue has maintained positive growth. However, the revenue completion progress is slow [12]. - Tax revenue turns to a slight increase, and non - tax revenue continues to shrink. From January to August, the cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turned positive to 0.02%, rising for 6 consecutive months. Securities trading stamp duty contributes significantly, while consumption tax, real - estate tax, and foreign - trade tax are still drags. The growth rate of non - tax revenue dropped to 1.5%, declining for 6 consecutive months [17]. 3.2 Fiscal Expenditure Growth Declines, Infrastructure Expenditure Growth Declines Significantly - Fiscal expenditure growth has declined across the board, with both central and local expenditures hitting new lows this year. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was 3.1%, with the increase narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. The expenditure rhythm is the lowest in the same period in the past five years. The growth rate of central expenditure is still relatively high but has declined by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while local expenditure growth has declined for 4 consecutive months, mainly affected by factors such as the decline in land transfer income [22]. - In terms of expenditure structure, people's livelihood expenditure has slowed down from a high level, and infrastructure expenditure has shrunk significantly. The growth rate of social security and employment expenditure has slightly increased, while the growth rates of education and health - care expenditure have slightly decreased. The growth rate declines of infrastructure - related expenditures such as agriculture, forestry, and water affairs and urban - rural community affairs have expanded [26]. 3.3 Government - Fund Revenue and Expenditure Growth Slows, Special Bond Issuance Speeds Up but Remains Slow - Government - fund revenue and expenditure growth is weak. The revenue side is under continuous pressure, with the year - on - year growth rate of government - fund revenue from January to August being - 1.4%, and the decline expanding. The expenditure side growth rate has marginally declined. The revenue growth rate is significantly lower than the expenditure growth rate, and the "mismatch" between revenue and expenditure progress highlights the debt - resolution pressure [28]. - Local government special bond issuance has accelerated but remains slow. From January to August, the completion progress of new special bonds was about 74.2%, an increase of about 11 percentage points from the previous value, but still 15 percentage points lower than the average in the same period from 2022 - 2024. The slow issuance is mainly restricted by debt resolution and tightened access to projects [28]. 3.4 Incremental Policies Are Approaching The economic repair momentum is weakening, and incremental policies are urgently needed to be stepped up. The economic growth momentum continues to slow down, consumption repair is unstable, and the economic fundamentals are still weak. Incremental policies need to be quickly implemented to address multiple constraints [6][34].
财政支出趋弱,关注加码可能:8月财政数据点评
Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure reached 179,324 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - In August 2025, general fiscal revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline of 3.3 percentage points compared to July[5] - General fiscal expenditure in August 2025 increased by 6% year-on-year, down 6.1 percentage points from July[5] Budget Completion Rates - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue in the first eight months was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[5] - General fiscal expenditure budget completion was 57.3%, also below the five-year average of 58.8%[5] Government Debt and Fiscal Support - As of the end of August, net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaled 8.5 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 72%[2] - The large-scale support phase of government debt financing for general fiscal expenditure is nearing its end, indicating a potential decline in fiscal support for the economy[2] - The issuance of new government debt is approaching its limit, which may hinder the maintenance of high growth rates in general fiscal expenditure going forward[11] Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the decline in general fiscal revenue growth[3] - The budget completion rate for government fund revenue in August was 5.3%, lower than the five-year average of 7.1%[18] Economic Growth Implications - The decline in government fund revenue and the nearing end of debt support may put pressure on future economic growth[11] - Retail growth related to "old-for-new" programs has slowed since June, impacting equipment purchase investment growth as well[11]
泰国2025财年前10个月财政收入距目标差400亿
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-09-18 06:48
据泰媒报道,近日,泰财政部近日公布的数据显示,2025财年前10个月(2024年10月至2025年7月), 政府净财政收入累计2.25万亿泰铢,同比增长1.8%,但仍低于原定目标约400亿泰铢。财政部指出,收 入未达标的主因是关键税收下降,特别是汽车税受到电动车(EV)政策影响,实际缴税数量少于预 期;进口增值税与企业所得税也低于目标,反映免税区优惠使用增加及经济形势变化。截至2025年7月 底,政府累计支出3.16万亿泰铢,为维持流动性与政策推进,举债8278亿泰铢弥补赤字,国库余额为 4057亿泰铢。 ...
财政收入延续增长态势
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-18 06:30
Group 1: Revenue Performance - In August, the national general public budget revenue reached 1.24 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2%, with both central and local revenue increasing by 2% [1] - For the first eight months, the total general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.3%, which is an improvement of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [1] - Tax revenue for the first eight months amounted to 12.11 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth in cumulative tax revenue [1] Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax grew by 3.2%, 2%, and 8.9% respectively, indicating stable growth [1] - Corporate income tax also achieved positive growth with an increase of 0.3%, highlighting the recovery in key sectors and industries [1] Group 3: Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure for the first eight months was 17.93 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 10%, while education expenditures increased by 5.6%, reflecting a strong focus on key areas [2] - The acceleration in the issuance and utilization of bond funds contributed to a 30% growth in government fund budget expenditures [2] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The overall fiscal performance for the first eight months is stable, with an optimized revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - The government aims to maintain a proactive fiscal policy to enhance economic and fiscal interaction, focusing on expanding effective demand and improving livelihoods [3]
年内税收累计增幅首次转正 财政收入延续增长态势
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-18 02:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's fiscal revenue continues to show a growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 2% in August, totaling 1.24 trillion yuan [1] - In the first eight months, the total fiscal revenue reached 14.82 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.3%, which is an improvement of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [1] - Tax revenue has turned positive for the first time, with a total of 12.11 trillion yuan collected, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Public budget expenditure also maintained growth, with a total of 17.93 trillion yuan spent in the first eight months, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Key areas such as social security and employment saw a significant increase in spending, with a growth rate of 10%, while education spending grew by 5.6% [2] - The acceleration of bond fund issuance and utilization has contributed to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [2] Group 3 - Overall, the fiscal operation in the first eight months has been stable, with an optimized revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - The articles emphasize the need to maintain a proactive fiscal policy to enhance economic and fiscal interaction through effective demand expansion and improvement of people's livelihoods [3]
财政收入延续增长 年内税收累计增幅首次转正
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-09-18 00:36
9月17日,财政部发布统计数据显示,8月份全国一般公共预算收入延续增长态势,累计增幅继续回升。 8月份,全国一般公共预算收入1.24万亿元,同比增长2%;其中,中央、地方收入增幅均为2%。 统计显示,前8个月,全国一般公共预算收入14.82万亿元,增长0.3%,增幅比前7个月提高0.2个百分 点。税收收入累计增幅由负转正。前8个月,全国税收收入12.11万亿元,比去年同期多26亿元,微增 0.02%,累计增幅首次转正。其中,国内增值税、国内消费税、个人所得税分别增长3.2%、2%、 8.9%,增幅保持平稳;企业所得税增长0.3%,累计增幅实现转正。 "财政收入结构进一步优化,对于财政的可持续性将发挥积极作用。主要税种中,国内增值税、国内消 费税、个人所得税、印花税等保持较快增长,显示出经济回升向好和资本市场活跃的带动效应。"北京 国家会计学院副院长、教授李旭红说。 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任、研究员何代欣分析,企业所得税实现正增长的意义很 大,关键领域、重点行业和重点企业的增长功不可没;文化体育娱乐业等方面的税收增速加快,受益于 提振消费政策的作用和服务业的增长。 支出方面,全国一般公共预算支 ...
财政收入延续增长态势 年内税收累计增幅首次转正
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-17 23:52
Group 1 - In August, the national general public budget revenue continued to grow, reaching 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - For the first eight months, the total general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [1] - Tax revenue for the first eight months was 12.11 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth [1] Group 2 - General public budget expenditure for the first eight months was 17.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [2] - Key areas such as social security and employment saw a significant increase in expenditure, with a growth rate of 10% [2] - The acceleration of bond fund issuance and utilization contributed to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [2] Group 3 - The overall fiscal operation remained stable in the first eight months, with an optimized revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - The need for a continued proactive fiscal policy is emphasized to enhance economic and fiscal interaction [3]
【广发宏观吴棋滢】8月财政收支数据简析:亮点和约束
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-09-17 15:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of fiscal revenue and expenditure in August, highlighting a slight year-on-year increase in tax revenue while non-tax revenue continues to decline, indicating a need for sustained economic growth policies [1][4][25]. Fiscal Revenue - In August, fiscal revenue increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with tax revenue rising by 3.4% and non-tax revenue decreasing by 3.8%, continuing the trend of stronger tax revenue since May [1][5]. - Cumulative fiscal revenue from January to August showed a slight increase of 0.3%, slightly exceeding the initial budget target of 0.1% [1][6]. - The performance of corporate income tax, personal income tax, and domestic value-added tax in August was strong, with year-on-year increases of 33.4%, 9.7%, and 4.4%, respectively [2][11]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure in August showed a decline, with spending growth lower than the average level for the same period in previous years, primarily due to a slowdown in infrastructure-related expenditures [3][16]. - Social security and employment expenditures maintained a high growth rate of 10.9% year-on-year in August, contributing positively to overall expenditure growth [3][16]. - Cumulative fiscal expenditure from January to August increased by 3.1%, which is still below the initial budget target of 4.4% [17]. Broader Fiscal Context - Land revenue growth further declined by 12.9 percentage points to -5.8% in August, reflecting a significant drop in land sales [21]. - The overall performance of government fund income from January to August showed a cumulative decline of 1.4%, indicating challenges in meeting the annual growth target of 0.7% [21][25]. - The article emphasizes the need for new policies to stabilize growth, particularly in the context of declining contributions from the real estate sector [25].
1-8月中国财政收入同比增长0.3%
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-17 12:00
1-8月中国财政收入同比增长0.3% 中新社北京9月17日电 (记者 赵建华)中国财政部17日公布的数据显示,2025年1-8月,全国一般公共预算 收入148198亿元(人民币,下同),同比增长0.3%。其中,全国税收收入121085亿元,同比微增0.02%; 非税收入27113亿元,同比增长1.5%。 财政部介绍,8月份全国一般公共预算收入延续增长态势,同比增长2%,1-8月全国一般公共预算收入 增幅比1-7月提高0.2个百分点,累计增幅继续回升。8月份全国税收收入月度增幅连续5个月保持正增 长。1-8月全国税收收入累计增幅首次转正,其中国内增值税增长3.2%、国内消费税增长2%、企业所得 税增长0.3%、个人所得税增长8.9%。 国家税务总局税收科学研究所所长黄立新表示,受经济运行稳中向好、资本市场较为活跃等带动,税务 部门征收的税收收入稳中有升。其中,7、8月份收入(未扣除出口退税)增幅均超过5%。分行业看,制造 业、金融业税收保持较快增长,其中制造业占全部税收的比重超过30%且税收增幅在5%以上,"压舱 石"作用明显。特别是部分高端制造业税收增长较快,如铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业 税收增 ...
全国税收收入增速由负转正
第一财经· 2025-09-17 10:54
Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal revenue in China has shown stability and growth in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a positive economic trend, with tax revenue turning from negative to positive for the first time this year [3][4]. Fiscal Revenue - The total general public budget revenue reached 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [3]. - Tax revenue amounted to 121,085 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth in tax revenue this year [3][4]. - The four major tax categories all experienced growth: - Domestic VAT: approximately 47,000 billion yuan, up 3.2% [5]. - Corporate income tax: approximately 32,000 billion yuan, up 0.3%, indicating a potential improvement in corporate profitability [5]. - Domestic consumption tax: approximately 12,000 billion yuan, up 2% [5]. - Personal income tax: approximately 11,000 billion yuan, up 8.9%, linked to increased property income for certain demographics [5]. Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue reached 27,113 billion yuan, growing by 1.5%, significantly lower than the 11.7% growth seen in the same period last year [6]. Government Fund Revenue - Government fund budget revenue totaled 26,449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with land use rights transfer income at 19,263 billion yuan, down 4.7% [7]. Government Debt and Expenditure - Net financing of government bonds reached 10.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.63 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating increased government borrowing to support fiscal spending [9]. - General public budget expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, up 3.1%, with significant investments in social security, education, and healthcare [11]. - Government fund budget expenditure was 62,602 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 30%, primarily directed towards major project construction to stabilize the economy [11].