以下文章来源于城市战争 ，作者孙不熟 城市战争 . 趁稿子不注意的时候，把它写出来。 编者荐语： 因为今年有苏超？ 高手过招，胜负往往在毫厘之间。 三季度经济数据出炉，经济大省你追我赶，精彩纷呈。例如广东与江苏、山东与浙江、四川与河南、湖北与福建其实都在伯仲之间，谁超过谁都不奇 怪。 以下是国民经略整理的一组数据，各大省份前三季度的GDP排名如下： | | 地区 | 2025Q3 | 2024Q3 | 增量 | 名义增速 | 实际增速 | 2024年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 广东 | 105177 | 102187 | 2990 | 2.9% | 4.1% | 141634 | | 2 | 江苏 | 102811 | 99235 | 3576 | 3.6% | 5.4% | 137008 | | 3 | 山东 | 77115 | 73782 | 3333 | 4.5% | 5.6% | 98566 | | 4 | 浙江 | 68495 | ୧୧୦୧୨ | 3436 | 5.3% | 5.7% | 90131 | | 5 ...

与此同时，财政脆弱性持续累积。偿债成本大幅攀升，挤压发展支出，目前已有20国陷入债务困境 或高风险。尽管通胀整体回落，但仍有约五分之一经济体通胀超过10%，国际储备普遍不足。 （原标题：撒南非洲国家经济保持韧性） 据"全非洲"11月18日报道，过去半年，全球外部环境动荡持续冲击撒哈拉以南非洲，但该地区经济 仍展现韧性，预计今年增长4.1%，明年微升至4.4%，反映部分主要经济体改革见效。科特迪瓦、埃塞 俄比亚、卢旺达和乌干达增速领先，而依赖资源、受冲突影响的国家增长低迷，人均收入几乎停滞。大 宗商品表现分化，石油价格下跌，而可可、咖啡、铜和黄金上涨，各国借贷成本仍高。 全球贸易和援助形式也已恶化。《非洲增长与机遇法案》到期导致对美出口关税上调，虽影响有 限，但紧张局势可能通过大宗商品价格进一步传导。外援骤降对贫困和脆弱国家冲击尤甚。 在此形势下，提高财政收入与改善债务管理成为两大政策关键。加纳、卢旺达和坦桑尼亚的成功改 革表明，税收制度与征管协同推进并配合公共服务改善和反腐举措，能确保收入可持续。债务管理方 面，更透明、可信的机制能降低融资成本并吸引投资，"债务换发展"模式在科特迪瓦等地已有试点，可 将部分债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, the broad fiscal revenue declined slightly, and the broad fiscal expenditure decreased significantly. To meet the budget targets at the beginning of the year, the revenue side has little difficulty, while the expenditure may accelerate significantly at the end of the year [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Revenue Side - **General Fiscal Revenue**: In October, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was - 0.6%, compared with 3.2% in the previous period. The general public budget revenue increased slightly, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.2% in October (previous value: 2.6%), tax revenue at 8.6% (previous value: 8.7%), and non - tax revenue at - 33% (previous value: - 11.4%) [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue**: In October, the four major taxes performed well, especially personal income tax. The growth rate of securities trading stamp duty declined due to the base effect. The year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 8.7%. Among the four major taxes, corporate income tax was 7.3% (previous value: 19.59%), personal income tax was 27.3% (previous value: 16.68%), domestic VAT was 7.2% (previous value: 7.60%), and domestic consumption tax was 4.4% (previous value: 3.83%). Real - estate - related taxes were - 1.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 3.4%), and vehicle purchase tax was - 16.8% (previous value: - 3.7%). Stamp duty and securities trading stamp duty were 9.4% and 17.5% year - on - year respectively, but declined month - on - month [2][11]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of government fund revenue was - 18.4%, compared with 5.6% in the previous period. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 2.8% (previous value: - 0.5%). There was no significant impulse phenomenon. The annual budget target for government fund revenue in 2025 is a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the current gap is not large [1][15]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was - 9.78%, compared with 3.08% in the previous period, the lowest growth rate of the year. All expenditure items decreased year - on - year, with infrastructure - related fiscal expenditure declining most significantly, at - 25.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 1.2%). Energy conservation and environmental protection was - 11.8%, urban and rural communities was - 24.0%, agriculture, forestry and water was - 32.8%, and transportation was - 14.8% [3][17]. - **Government Fund Expenditure**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of government fund expenditure was - 38.2%, compared with 0.4% in the previous period, also the lowest growth rate of the year [3][17]. - **Broad Fiscal Deficit**: From January to October, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 8.58 trillion yuan, down from 8.84 trillion yuan from January to September, indicating that the broad fiscal revenue exceeded expenditure in October. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the cumulative broad deficit rate in October was 6.1%, still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years [3][21]. Budget Completion - **Revenue Side**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fiscal revenue was 0.8%, exceeding the budget growth rate at the beginning of the year by 0.1%. From November to December, only a year - on - year decline of 3.7% is needed to meet the annual target. Government fund revenue needs to achieve a year - on - year growth rate of 5.3% from November to December, and land transfer revenue may increase at the end of the year [4][24]. - **Expenditure Side**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 2.0%, while the annual budget growth rate was 4.4%. From November to December, the year - on - year growth rate needs to reach 12.9%, and the government fund expenditure needs to reach 40.3%. The expenditure growth rate may accelerate significantly in the next two months, and there may even be a rush of expenditure at the end of the year [4][24].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the fiscal situation in China, highlighting trends in fiscal revenue and expenditure as well as property-related government revenue. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Revenue Growth**: On-budget fiscal revenue growth increased slightly to **3.2% year-on-year (yoy)** in October from **2.6% yoy** in September, despite a broad-based weakness in activity data [1][3][7] 2. **Fiscal Expenditure Decline**: Fiscal expenditure growth fell significantly to **-9.8% yoy** in October from **+3.1% yoy** in September, marking the lowest growth rate since December 2021 [2][7][9] 3. **Property-Related Revenue Weakness**: Property-related government revenue saw a notable decline, with land sales revenue dropping **-27.5% yoy** in October compared to **-0.9% yoy** in September. On-budget property-related tax revenue also remained weak at **-1.4% yoy** [2][8][9] 4. **Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD)**: The AFD metric narrowed in October, indicating a less supportive fiscal policy for growth. The AFD ratio was **-10.6% of GDP** on a 3-month moving average basis [1][3][9] 5. **Government Spending Trends**: The government’s fiscal "spend-through" ratio decreased slightly to **98.5%** in October from **98.8%** in September, suggesting a slowdown in fund deployment [9][10] 6. **Impact on Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: The deceleration in government spending growth, particularly in infrastructure, may have negatively impacted FAI growth, although other factors may also contribute to this trend [10] Additional Important Insights - **Non-Tax Revenue Contraction**: Non-tax revenue experienced a significant contraction of **-33.0% yoy** in October, widening from **-11.4% yoy** in September, primarily due to a high base effect [7] - **Overall Government Revenue**: Total government revenue growth slowed to **-0.6% yoy** in October from **+3.2% yoy** in September, while government expenditure growth dropped to **-19.1% yoy** from **+2.2% yoy** [9] - **Future Fiscal Policy Outlook**: There is a downside risk to the AFD forecast for this year (projected at **12.0% of GDP**), but expectations for continued fiscal expansion into next year remain, as indicated by recent policy communications [10]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/11/18 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,465.00 -60.00 | -260.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +80.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,780.00 -61.00 | -37.00↓ +21.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 356,547.00 | -34312.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 405,009.00 | + ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to October this year, national fiscal revenue showed a steady increase, with a cumulative growth rate of 0.8% year-on-year, which is an improvement of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [1] - In October alone, national fiscal revenue reached 2.26 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, indicating a continued upward trend in monthly growth [1] Revenue Breakdown - Total tax revenue from January to October amounted to 15.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.7%, which is an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the first nine months [1] - The computer and communication equipment manufacturing sector saw a tax revenue increase of 12.7%, while the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector experienced a 7.9% growth [1] Expenditure Insights - The government has implemented more proactive fiscal policies, increasing expenditure intensity and optimizing expenditure structure, with a focus on ensuring funding for key areas [1] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.3%, scientific and technological expenditures increased by 5.7%, and education expenditures rose by 4.7% [1]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月18日 2025 年 10 月财政数据快评 财政支出离完成预算有多远？ 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 1-10 月，全国一般公共预算收入 186490 亿元，同比增长 0.8%。其中，全国税收收入 153364 亿元，同比 增长 1.7%；非税收入 33126 亿元，同比下降 3.1%。 后续可能需要加快财政资金落地速度。10 月财政存款环比上行 7200 亿，存款余额来到 7.7 万亿，这一数 字高出过去三年同期均值 8414 亿；1-10 月广义财政累计缺口约 8.7 万亿，而广义赤字到十月底已落地 10.3 万亿，已发未用 1.7 万亿，即使剔除特殊新增专项债，财政资金仍有部分尚未落地。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 1-10 月，全国一般公共预 ...

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 10 月公共财政收入同比 3.2% ，创年内单月增速高点。其中税收表现偏强，同比 8.6% ，大致持平前值 8.7% 的高位，显著高于前 8 个月累计同比的 0.02% 。同时财政对非税的依赖度进一步下降，非税收入同比 -33% 。今年财政收入年累计增速并不高，前 10 个月同 比为 0.8% ，和今年名义 GDP 增速中枢依然偏低的状况匹配；但 9 月以来边际改善较为明显。 第二， 10月税收增速为何偏强？基数并不是关键，从绝对规模来看，10月税收收入也显著超出季节性。其中个人所得税近月表现相对突 出，9月个税同比16.7%、10月同比27.3%。我们理解一则可能与资本市场表现活跃、财富效应有所增加有关；二则可能与10月实施的《互 联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》有关。除个税外，消费税由于其税收结构，或受金价上行的带动较多。企业所得税和国内增值税的好 转，应与PPI环比改善有关，后者9月以来的好转还与增值税留抵退税政策、国债等利息收入政策调整有关。 第三， 财政支出同比下行12.9个百分点至-9.8% ...

央广网北京11月18日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，财政部昨天 （17日）发布的最新数据显示，今年1月—10月，全国财政收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%，增幅比1 月—9月提高0.3个百分点。10月单月，全国财政收入2.26万亿元，同比增长3.2%，月度增幅继续提高。 前10个月（1月—10月），全国财政支出22.58万亿元，同比增长2%。各级财政落实更加积极的财 政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域的支出保障。其中，社会保障和就业支出 增长9.3%，科学技术支出增长5.7%，教育支出增长4.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady recovery in public budget revenue and a slowdown in expenditure growth, with significant increases in spending related to people's livelihoods and technology [1][3] - In the first ten months of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue growing by 1.7% to 15.34 trillion yuan [1] - The growth in public finance revenue is primarily driven by tax revenue, with notable increases in domestic VAT (4%), domestic consumption tax (2.4%), corporate income tax (1.9%), and personal income tax (11.5%) [1][2] Group 2 - The capital market's high activity level has significantly boosted personal income tax, corporate income tax, and securities transaction stamp duty, with the latter increasing by 88.1% to 162.9 billion yuan in the first ten months [1][2] - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with computer communication equipment manufacturing tax revenue growing by 12.7% and scientific research and technical services by 14.8% [3] - Social security and employment expenditures, education, health, science and technology, and environmental protection expenditures all saw growth, with social security and employment spending increasing by 9.3% [3]