记者 辛圆 据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月12日，纽约联邦储备银行发布报告称，美国消费者和企业承担了特朗普政府加征关税的大部分成本，比例约为90%，与政府 此前"由外国承担关税"的说法形成对比。 报告评估显示，去年美国平均关税水平从2.6%升至13%。其中，1月至8月期间，美国承担了94%的关税冲击；9月至10月为92%；11月为86%。 研究指出，在特朗普首个任期内的经验显示，外国出口商并未显著降价，关税成本几乎"100%转嫁至美国进口价格"。 美国国会预算办公室（CBO）本周亦发布类似结论，称更高关税直接推高进口商品价格。CBO估算，外国出口商承担约5%的成本，美国企业短期内吸收约 30%，其余70%通过涨价转嫁给消费者。 在此之前，德国基尔世界经济研究所（Kiel Study）发布的一份研究报告显示，美国政府加征的关税并未转嫁给国外出口商，相反，美国进口商和消费者承 担了绝大部分额外关税负担。 这份报告分析了在2024年1月到2025年11月期间，通过海运进入美国的超过2500万条、总额近4万亿美元的贸易数据，结果显示，关税每提高10个百分点，进 口商品的平均价格仅会下降0.39%。 这也意味着，如果美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has released the fiscal revenue and expenditure data for 2025, indicating a stable overall fiscal revenue with significant changes in key areas of public concern, particularly in personal income tax and corporate income tax growth [1][3]. Revenue Summary - Total fiscal revenue for 2025 is projected at 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from 2024, with tax revenue increasing by 0.8% [3]. - Personal income tax revenue reached 1.6187 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year growth, while corporate income tax revenue was 4.1304 trillion yuan, showing a 1% increase [1][4]. - The increase in personal income tax is attributed to the implementation of the "Golden Tax Phase IV" and a record high in A-share trading volumes, which boosted property income tax [5]. Expenditure Summary - Total general public budget expenditure for 2025 is estimated at 28.7395 trillion yuan, representing a 1% increase from the previous year [7]. - Key areas of expenditure include social security and employment (up 6.7%), education (up 3.2%), health (up 5.7%), and science and technology (up 4.8%) [7][8]. - The government has maintained or increased spending in essential areas despite economic pressures, indicating a commitment to social welfare [8]. Social Welfare Initiatives - In 2025, approximately 100 billion yuan is allocated for childcare subsidies, benefiting over 30 million infants, marking a significant investment in human capital [9]. - There is a recognized need for further improvement in social spending, with current broad social security expenditures at nearly 10% of GDP, compared to 18%-30% in developed countries [9][10]. - Recommendations for enhancing social welfare include increasing tax deductions for childcare and elder care to alleviate financial burdens on families [9].

一图速览>> | 省份 ■ | 地方一般公 | | --- | --- | | 广东 | 13939 | | 江苏 | 10246 | | 浙江 | 8862 | | 上海 | 8501 | | 山东 | 7864 | | 北京 | ୧୧୫1 | | 四川 | 5854 | | 河南 | 4502 | | 河北 | 4399 | | 湖北 | 4211 | | -- | IAF | | 女徽 | 415/ | | --- | --- | | 福建 | 3723 | | 湖南 | 3508 | | 陕西 | 3289 | | 山西 | 3219 | | 江西 | 3079 | | 内蒙古 3005 | | | 辽宁 | 2918 | | 重庆 | 2736 | | 新疆 | 2662 | | 云南 | 2243 | | 黒세 | ากาว | | 火川 | | | --- | --- | | 天津 | 2221 | | 广西 | 1922 | | 黒龙江 1535 | | | 吉林 | 1350 | | 甘肃 | 1112 | | 海南 | 904 | | 宁夏 | 541 | | 青海 | 355 | | 西 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan plans to suspend sales tax on food, which is expected to result in a fiscal revenue loss of approximately 0.8% of GDP and a decrease in inflation rate by about two percentage points, potentially pushing overall inflation into negative territory [1] Group 1 - Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, highlights that the reduction in Japan's budget deficit is occurring at a faster pace than most anticipated [1] - Despite an expected widening of the deficit this year and next, strong nominal GDP growth will lead to a rapid decline in the public debt-to-GDP ratio [1]

Economic Development - Yangjiang's GDP is projected to exceed 167.12 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 3.3% compared to the previous year [3] - The primary industry is expected to contribute 27.85 billion yuan with a growth rate of 6.3%, the secondary industry is projected to add 61.33 billion yuan with a growth of 1.3%, and the tertiary industry is anticipated to reach 77.94 billion yuan with a growth of 3.7% [3] - The per capita GDP in Yangjiang is expected to be 63,600 yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.2% [3] Fiscal Performance - Yangjiang's general public budget revenue is expected to reach 11.54 billion yuan in 2025, marking a historic breakthrough by surpassing the 10 billion yuan threshold [4] - The budget revenue is projected to grow by 8.8% year-on-year, ranking third in growth rate among provinces [4] Environmental Initiatives - The mangrove conservation area in Chengcun, Yangxi, has been recognized as a typical case for ecological value transformation in Guangdong Province [5] - The area spans 15,000 acres, with nearly 7,000 acres being the second-largest natural mangrove area in western Guangdong, serving as a habitat for various rare species [5] Cultural Events - The "碧海丝路·情满海陵" cultural and tourism integration performance is set to take place on February 7, 2026, featuring various artistic presentations that highlight the cultural heritage and future prospects of Hailing Island [6] - The event will include multiple performances such as dance, music, and drama, aimed at providing an immersive cultural experience for attendees [6] Consumer Trends - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a noticeable increase in vehicle maintenance and inspections at 4S shops, with many car owners seeking to ensure their vehicles are in good condition for holiday travel [10] - The industry is experiencing a peak in service demand, prompting repair staff to work overtime to meet customer needs [10] Consumer Protection - In 2025, consumer associations in China handled over 2 million complaints, achieving a resolution rate of approximately 52.7% and recovering economic losses of 9.25 billion yuan for consumers [11] - This reflects a 14.45% increase in complaints compared to the previous year, indicating a growing awareness and engagement among consumers [11] Foreign Investment - The Ministry of Commerce has emphasized its commitment to providing a favorable environment for foreign enterprises in China, aiming for high-quality development and expanded openness during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [13] - The focus is on maintaining a multilateral trade system and fostering equitable and mutually beneficial economic relationships with various countries [13]

2026.02.05 根据财政部数据，2025年广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）支出约为40.03万亿 元，同比增长3.7%；广义财政收入约为27.38万亿元，同比下降约2.9%；广义财政支出超过收入约12.65 万亿元，同比增长21.3%。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经，去年面对收入端多重压力，财政政策通过提高赤字率与扩 大债务规模，实施超常规逆周期调节，保持必要支出强度，有力发挥了宏观政策的支撑作用，推动全年 经济平稳运行。 去年底全国财政工作会议提出，今年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，包括扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要 支出力度等，以推动今年经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 罗志恒认为，2026年财政政策预计在现有基础上进一步加力提效，通过提升赤字规模、优化支出结构、 创新政策工具等，以更强的政策力度推动经济稳中向好并切实改善民生。 财政支出为何能保持力度 去年广义财政支出规模创新高，支出增速与名义经济增速相近，折射了财政支出有力。 财政部数据显示，2025年全国一般公共预算支出约28.74万亿元，同比增长1%。全国政府性基金支出约 11.29万亿元，同比增长11.3%。 本文字 ...

Report Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Due to India's continued reduction in Russian oil purchases and the widening discount of Urals crude, Russia's fiscal revenue is expected to be significantly impacted, which may prompt Russia to make compromises on the Russia-Ukraine issue in the future [3] - The biggest downside risk to oil prices this year comes from the transformation of Russian oil from sanctioned oil to compliant oil after changes in sanctions [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - On February 5, a survey showed that due to the disruption of Venezuela's oil exports and other OPEC members implementing a three - month freeze on production increases, OPEC's crude oil production decreased last month. In January, OPEC's daily oil production was 28.83 million barrels, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day from the previous month. About one - third of the decline was caused by Venezuela, and other members also slightly cut production [2] - On February 4, Russia's government oil revenue in January fell to its lowest in more than five years. Weak global oil prices, a wider discount on Russian oil, and a stronger ruble dragged down the fiscal situation. In January, oil - related taxes were halved year - on - year to 281.7 billion rubles ($3.7 billion), and the combined oil and gas revenue also dropped 50% to 393.3 billion rubles. The combined oil and gas accounts for about a quarter of Russia's fiscal revenue [2] - In recent months, India has cut Russian oil purchases, especially after sanctions on major Russian producers. Although the discounts are still attractive, at least three refineries are seeking government clarification, and two have suspended purchases. India's oil minister expects imports from Russia to continue to decline, and refineries want to increase supplies from Canada and the US [2] Investment Logic - India's continued reduction in Russian oil purchases and the widening discount of Urals crude are expected to significantly impact Russia's fiscal revenue, which may prompt Russia to make compromises on the Russia - Ukraine issue. The biggest downside risk to oil prices this year is the transformation of Russian oil from sanctioned oil to compliant oil after changes in sanctions [3] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [4] Risk - Downside risks: Relaxation of Russian oil sanctions, macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights the stable growth of Hebei's economy and fiscal revenue, with a notable increase in the revenue of the Xiong'an New Area [2][5]. Fiscal Performance - In 2025, Hebei's general public budget revenue reached 439.86 billion yuan, a 2% increase, aligning with the national average growth rate of 2.2% [2][3]. - Tax revenue in Hebei for 2025 was 263.84 billion yuan, growing by 3.4%, while non-tax revenue remained stable at 176.02 billion yuan [3]. - The proportion of tax revenue in the general public budget was approximately 60%, indicating room for improvement compared to the national average of about 82% [3]. Government Fund Revenue - The government fund revenue in Hebei for 2025 was 184.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 2%, which is a significant improvement from the previous year's decline of 15.8% [3][4]. - The revenue from land sales has been affected by the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, leading to a decline in local land sale income [3]. Xiong'an New Area - The Xiong'an New Area's general public budget revenue for 2025 was 3.08 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of approximately 45%, significantly higher than the national average [5]. - The government fund revenue for Xiong'an was projected at 25.4 billion yuan, with a 2% increase [5]. Fiscal Expenditure - Hebei's general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 1,024.36 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.8%, but a comparable growth of 7.2% when excluding one-time factors [5]. - Social welfare spending accounted for 81.7% of the general public budget expenditure, totaling 836.96 billion yuan [5]. Future Projections - For 2026, Hebei's general public budget revenue is expected to reach 448.66 billion yuan, with a growth rate of around 2% [8]. - The government fund revenue for 2026 is projected to be 224.97 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 22% [9]. - The Xiong'an New Area's budget revenue for 2026 is anticipated to be 3.5 billion yuan, a growth of about 14%, while the government fund revenue is expected to decline by approximately 17% [10]. Key Spending Areas - The 2026 budget emphasizes spending on public welfare, major national strategies, technological innovation, and the construction of a modern industrial system [11]. - Specific allocations include 1 billion yuan for high-quality construction in Xiong'an and 1.063 billion yuan for promoting technological and industrial innovation [11].

非税高基数扰动：狭义收入回落 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年 12 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 12 月，非税高基数扰动下，狭义收入增速回落。支出端有保有压，凸显 "保障重点"、"提质增效"政策取向。展望 2026 年，总体支出力度"只 增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"，节奏有望前置。 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产需求有待提振。 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.31 | | 021-23185643 | | --- | --- | | | houhuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040074 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 报 证 券 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 快 结构性宽松继续 2026.01.15 M2 增速反弹：哪些驱动力 2026.01.15 美国通胀：延续温和 2026.01.14 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 21.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 1% [1] - The overall fiscal revenue in China remained stable, with tax revenue steadily rebounding and key areas of expenditure being well-supported [1][2] - Tax revenue grew by 0.8% in 2025, reflecting a steady upward trend in the economy, while non-tax revenue fell by 11.3% due to a high base from 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - Major tax categories such as value-added tax, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and individual income tax grew by 3.4%, 2%, 1%, and 11.5% respectively, accounting for about 81% of total tax revenue [2] - The growth in consumption tax was primarily driven by increases in cigarette and refined oil taxes, while corporate income tax growth was supported by the manufacturing sector [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty reached 203.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 57.8%, indicating a strong correlation with market activity [2][3] Group 3 - National general public budget expenditure increased by 1%, with social security and employment, technology, education, and health spending rising by 6.7%, 4.8%, 3.2%, and 5.7% respectively, together accounting for about 42% of total expenditure [3] - Fiscal funds showed a clear trend of investing in human capital, with over 30 million infants receiving childcare subsidies [3] - In 2025, the total expenditure on special bonds and other financial instruments reached 6.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.69 trillion yuan or 37.6%, enhancing economic development momentum [3][4]