Economic Data and Events - The US manufacturing and services PMI, as well as consumer confidence, exceeded expectations, while employment data was significantly weaker than anticipated [2][14] - In the Eurozone, January manufacturing PMI showed a greater rebound than the initial value, but services PMI and retail sales fell short of expectations; inflation met expectations and remained stable compared to the previous value [2][14] - Japan's manufacturing and services PMI both improved in January [2][14] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key focus on the US non-farm payroll report for January to be released on February 11 and the US CPI data for January to be released on February 13 [3][16] Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 2.13% for the week ending January 31, down from 2.49% the previous week [4][18] - Germany's economic activity index returned to positive territory, with the WAI index at 0.1% for the week ending February 1, compared to -0.01% the previous week [5][18] Demand - US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth rate showed fluctuations, with a reading of 6.7% for the week ending January 30, down from 7.1% the previous week [6][21] - The US mortgage rate stabilized, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.11% on February 5, slightly up from 6.10% the previous week; mortgage applications fell, with the MBA market composite index at 330.8, down 8.9% week-on-week [6][24] Employment - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 for the week ending January 31, up from 209,000 the previous week; continuing claims increased from 1.819 million to 1.844 million for the week ending January 24 [7][27] - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 103.9 as of January 30, slightly lower than the December average of 104.2 [8][29] Prices - Commodity prices experienced a significant pullback, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 3.3% week-on-week as of February 6 [9][34] - US gasoline prices stabilized at $2.75 per gallon for the week ending February 2, showing no change from the previous week [9][36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe showed signs of recovery, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.755 on February 6, up from 0.539 the previous day [10][39] - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with narrow fluctuations in swap basis [11][41] - High-yield dollar bond spreads widened but showed signs of recent recovery, with the spread-to-worst for JPMorgan's global BB-B rated dollar bonds at 256.3 basis points [11][43] - The yield spread between US and Japanese bonds narrowed, while the spread between Italian and German bonds widened [11][46] Fiscal Data - As of February 5, cumulative federal funding expenditures in the US increased by 3.8% year-on-year, totaling approximately $784.5 billion [12][49][52]

格隆汇2月9日｜Invesco亚洲太平洋全球市场策略师David Chao表示，日本首相高市早苗的压倒性胜利可 能给长期日本国债收益率带来上行压力。他指出："更积极的财政支出可能增加财政及通胀风险。"从日 元角度看，短期内可能出现一定波动，市场正在评估自民党大胜对货币动态的影响。Chao补充道，在 美联储按兵不动、且日本央行预计要到第二季度才可能加息的背景下，美元/日元可能再次逼近160.00 水平。 ...

2026.02.05 根据财政部数据，2025年广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）支出约为40.03万亿 元，同比增长3.7%；广义财政收入约为27.38万亿元，同比下降约2.9%；广义财政支出超过收入约12.65 万亿元，同比增长21.3%。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经，去年面对收入端多重压力，财政政策通过提高赤字率与扩 大债务规模，实施超常规逆周期调节，保持必要支出强度，有力发挥了宏观政策的支撑作用，推动全年 经济平稳运行。 去年底全国财政工作会议提出，今年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，包括扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要 支出力度等，以推动今年经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 罗志恒认为，2026年财政政策预计在现有基础上进一步加力提效，通过提升赤字规模、优化支出结构、 创新政策工具等，以更强的政策力度推动经济稳中向好并切实改善民生。 财政支出为何能保持力度 去年广义财政支出规模创新高，支出增速与名义经济增速相近，折射了财政支出有力。 财政部数据显示，2025年全国一般公共预算支出约28.74万亿元，同比增长1%。全国政府性基金支出约 11.29万亿元，同比增长11.3%。 本文字 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong demand for Japan's 30-year government bonds in the recent auction alleviated short-term concerns about long-term debt, leading to a decline in yields ahead of the upcoming elections [1][3]. Group 1: Auction Results - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 30-year bonds reached 3.64, significantly higher than the previous auction's 3.14 and above the 12-month average of 3.35, indicating increased investor interest [4]. - The yield on the 30-year bonds fell by 5 basis points to 3.585%, while the 10-year bond yield decreased by 1.5 basis points to 2.23%, reflecting a positive market sentiment [1][4]. - Over 23% of the bonds were purchased by two large domestic companies, which is expected to support stable trading in the secondary market [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Context - Despite concerns over rising fiscal spending, the auction results suggest that higher yield levels are attracting buyers, indicating a potential increase in demand as political uncertainties diminish [3][4]. - The upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8 will determine future fiscal spending, adding complexity to the current market environment [5]. Group 3: Currency and Monetary Policy Considerations - The depreciation of the yen has become a focal point, with hedge funds resuming short positions ahead of the elections, indicating concerns over currency volatility [6]. - Investors are closely monitoring how the election results may influence the Bank of Japan's interest rate path, as Prime Minister Kishi Sanae is known for advocating monetary easing [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights the stable growth of Hebei's economy and fiscal revenue, with a notable increase in the revenue of the Xiong'an New Area [2][5]. Fiscal Performance - In 2025, Hebei's general public budget revenue reached 439.86 billion yuan, a 2% increase, aligning with the national average growth rate of 2.2% [2][3]. - Tax revenue in Hebei for 2025 was 263.84 billion yuan, growing by 3.4%, while non-tax revenue remained stable at 176.02 billion yuan [3]. - The proportion of tax revenue in the general public budget was approximately 60%, indicating room for improvement compared to the national average of about 82% [3]. Government Fund Revenue - The government fund revenue in Hebei for 2025 was 184.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 2%, which is a significant improvement from the previous year's decline of 15.8% [3][4]. - The revenue from land sales has been affected by the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, leading to a decline in local land sale income [3]. Xiong'an New Area - The Xiong'an New Area's general public budget revenue for 2025 was 3.08 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of approximately 45%, significantly higher than the national average [5]. - The government fund revenue for Xiong'an was projected at 25.4 billion yuan, with a 2% increase [5]. Fiscal Expenditure - Hebei's general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 1,024.36 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.8%, but a comparable growth of 7.2% when excluding one-time factors [5]. - Social welfare spending accounted for 81.7% of the general public budget expenditure, totaling 836.96 billion yuan [5]. Future Projections - For 2026, Hebei's general public budget revenue is expected to reach 448.66 billion yuan, with a growth rate of around 2% [8]. - The government fund revenue for 2026 is projected to be 224.97 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 22% [9]. - The Xiong'an New Area's budget revenue for 2026 is anticipated to be 3.5 billion yuan, a growth of about 14%, while the government fund revenue is expected to decline by approximately 17% [10]. Key Spending Areas - The 2026 budget emphasizes spending on public welfare, major national strategies, technological innovation, and the construction of a modern industrial system [11]. - Specific allocations include 1 billion yuan for high-quality construction in Xiong'an and 1.063 billion yuan for promoting technological and industrial innovation [11].

2025年全国财政支出28.74万亿元 2025年全国规模以上文化及相关产业企业营业收入增长7.4% 2026年1月中国采购经理指数运行情况 2025年中国对外投资合作运行情况 点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2825 字，阅读全文约 10 分钟 2025年全国财政支出28.74万亿元 财政部1月30日发布数据显示， 2025年，全国一般公共预算支出28.74万亿元，同比增长1%。 其中，社会 保障和就业、教育、卫生健康、科学技术、节能环保等支出分别增长6.7%、3.2%、5.7%、4.8%和6.1%，重点 领域支出得到较好保障。 2025年，我国实施了育儿补贴政策，这是新中国成立以来首次大范围、普惠式、直接向群众发放的民生 保障现金补贴。当年，全国各级财政共安排约1000亿元，其中，中央财政安排904亿元。据统计，截至目前， 全国已惠及3000多万名婴幼儿。 针对提振消费，2025年，财政部先后分四批累计下达超长期特别国债资金3000亿元支持消费品以旧换 新，有力释放了消费潜力，助力相关产业加快转型升级。 (来源:财政部 ) 2025年全国规模以上文化及相关产业企业营业收入增长7.4% 2025 ...

报告摘要 （一）本周和未来一周的海外重要经济数据 文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 核心观点 高频来看，美国初请失业金人数仍处于低位，海外大宗商品价格大幅上涨但周五明显回调，美国汽油零售 价持续反弹，美国信用利差有所扩大。经济数据方面，美国去年12月PPI环比超预期，欧元区四季度GDP好 于预期，日本1月东京CPI低于预期。关注即将公布：美国1月ISM制造业（2/2）、1月非农数据（2/2）、2 月密歇根消费者信心指数（2/6），欧元区1月CPI（2/4）、欧央行利率决议（2/5）。 1 月 26 日 -30 日当周，美国： 去年 11 月耐用品订单环比初值好于预期，去年 12 月 PPI 环比超预期， 1 月世界大型企业研究会消费者信心指数低于预期， 1 月 MNI 芝加哥 PMI 好于预期。 欧元区 ：去年 4 季 度 GDP 好于预期，去年 12 月失业率好于预期。 日本 ： 去年 12 月工业产值好于预期， 1 月东京 CPI 低 于预期，去年 12 月失业率符合预期，去年 12 月零售环比低于预期。 2 月 2 日 ...

非税高基数扰动：狭义收入回落 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年 12 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 12 月，非税高基数扰动下，狭义收入增速回落。支出端有保有压，凸显 "保障重点"、"提质增效"政策取向。展望 2026 年，总体支出力度"只 增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"，节奏有望前置。 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产需求有待提振。 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.31 | | 021-23185643 | | --- | --- | | | houhuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040074 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 报 证 券 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 快 结构性宽松继续 2026.01.15 M2 增速反弹：哪些驱动力 2026.01.15 美国通胀：延续温和 2026.01.14 ...

华福证券 宏 观 研 究 财政支出降幅收窄 ——2025 年 12 月财政数据解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 全年收支未达目标。回顾 2025 年全年的财政收支，首先，税收收入明 显改善，尤其是增值税、个人所得税和企业所得税，是公共财政收入端的 重心；其次，财政支出侧重民生领域，基建类支出占比趋降；再次，支出 节奏前置，年末进度落后，全年预算短支；最后，土地财政持续低迷且波 动较大，对广义财政收入构成拖累。2025 年广义财政收入、支出增速分别 为-2.9%、3.7%，单独看 12 月当月的表现，2025 年 12 月广义财政收入较 上月回落 13.3 个百分点至-18.5%，广义支出增速较上月回升 1 个百分点至 -0.7%。收入端来看，12 月税收走弱受到高基数效应和经济放缓的影响，土 地出让收入对广义财政持续构成制约；支出端方面，融资前置导致年底后 劲略显不足，仅基建相关支出有明显改善。 财政依旧前置发力。展望 2026 年，一般公共预算赤字率或保持稳定， 同时，全国财政工作会议指出要"扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度"， 随着物价有望企稳回升，财政收入对于支出端的制约减弱，财政"增支" 的效果或更 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's fiscal revenue for 2025 is projected to be 21.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 1.7% compared to the previous year, with tax revenue showing a modest increase of 0.8% [1] - The overall fiscal revenue is expected to operate steadily, with tax revenue showing a gradual recovery, indicating a stable economic development trend [1] - Non-tax revenue is expected to decline significantly by 11.3%, primarily due to a high base effect from one-time special revenue payments made by central units in 2024 [1] Group 2 - In terms of tax categories, domestic value-added tax is projected to grow by 3.4%, while domestic consumption tax is expected to increase by 2%, driven mainly by the growth in tobacco and refined oil consumption taxes [1] - Corporate income tax is anticipated to rise by 1%, with an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, largely supported by the manufacturing sector [1] - Personal income tax is expected to grow by 11.5%, and securities transaction stamp duty is projected to increase significantly by 57.8% [1] Group 3 - Local general public budget revenue is expected to increase by 2.4% in 2025, with 27 out of 31 regions experiencing revenue growth compared to 2024 [2] - National general public budget expenditure is projected to reach 28.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1% [2] - Government fund budget revenue is expected to decline by 7%, with land use rights revenue decreasing by 14.7% [2] Group 4 - Government fund budget expenditure is projected to grow by 11.3%, with significant spending on special bonds and other financial instruments amounting to 619 billion yuan to support economic recovery [2]