Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, emphasizing the need to leverage reforms for economic benefits and identifying potential opportunities in various sectors [7][8]. - It highlights the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a crucial period for China's modernization, focusing on restructuring economic growth logic and promoting inclusive growth [11][12]. - The article outlines three main themes for the "15th Five-Year Plan": intelligent transformation, green transformation, and integrated development [11]. Group 2 - The article provides insights into the recent sharp decline in fiscal spending, attributing it to high base effects, declining revenues, and a reduction in government debt financing [14]. - It raises questions about the implications if "reciprocal tariffs" are deemed illegal, suggesting potential shifts in trade dynamics [15].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is facing significant turmoil as the government prepares a large-scale economic stimulus plan, raising concerns about fiscal health and leading to a sell-off in government bonds [1][3][6] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.8%, the highest level since 2008, indicating a significant sell-off in the bond market [1][3] - The 40-year bond yield reached a historical peak of 3.695%, while the 20-year bond yield hit 2.815%, the highest since 1999 [1] - The anticipated issuance of long-term bonds to finance the stimulus plan is seen as a primary driver for the rising yields [3][6] Group 2: Economic Stimulus Plan - The Japanese government is finalizing a stimulus plan exceeding 20 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD) to boost the economy [1] - Reports suggest that the supplementary budget could be at least 25 trillion yen (approximately 168 billion USD), raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal position [3][6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar, falling below 157 yen per dollar, reflecting market anxiety [3] - The Nikkei 225 index has experienced significant declines, erasing most gains since the new Prime Minister's election [3][4] Group 4: Broader Economic Concerns - Japan's GDP contracted by an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter, indicating ongoing economic challenges [4] - Investor sentiment has been further dampened by the cancellation of the primary fiscal balance target and proposed changes to corporate governance rules [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts warn that the upcoming announcement of the fiscal stimulus plan could trigger further sell-offs in Japanese assets, highlighting the fragility of the current market [6] - Concerns are growing that Japan may face a scenario similar to the UK under Liz Truss, with simultaneous declines in the stock market, bond market, and currency [6]

申万宏源宏观 数据点评 | 财政支出缘何"骤降"？（申万宏观·赵伟团队） 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Insights - The October fiscal data shows a clear divergence in revenue and expenditure, with tax revenue continuing to grow significantly, likely due to improvements in prices affecting nominal variables [2] - Non-tax revenue growth has hit a five-year low, indicating challenges in revitalizing state-owned assets [2] - General fiscal expenditure growth has notably slowed, with the possibility of either accelerating spending by year-end or rolling over to next year, which will directly impact next year's fiscal spending strength [2] - Land transfer revenue has again shown negative growth, putting pressure on land finance [2] - The urgent task for fiscal policy is to implement existing policies effectively to generate more tangible work output [2] Revenue Analysis - From January to October, fiscal revenue has increased by 0.8% year-on-year, surpassing the initial budget growth target by 0.1%, indicating that achieving the annual target is feasible with a required decline of only 3.7% in November and December [3] - Tax revenue growth has slightly underperformed expectations, and adjustments in the revenue structure have been insufficient [3] - Government fund revenue needs to achieve a 5.3% year-on-year growth in the last two months, with potential for a year-end surge in land transfer revenue [3] Expenditure Analysis - Fiscal expenditure from January to October has increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while the annual budget anticipates a 4.4% increase, necessitating a significant 12.9% growth in the last two months [3] - Government fund expenditure is expected to require a 40.3% year-on-year increase, suggesting a potential for accelerated spending in the coming months, including possible year-end spending spikes [3] Future Outlook - The report maintains the view that fiscal policy in 2026 will likely be proactive and expansionary, focusing on "investment in things" and "investment in people," with an expected fiscal expansion similar to 2025 [2] - The anticipated fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is around 4%, with special bonds projected at 5 trillion and special treasury bonds at approximately 2 trillion, leading to an expected total fiscal expenditure of 43 trillion, an increase of 1.13 trillion from 2025 [2]

Revenue Insights - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a growth rate improvement of 0.3 percentage points compared to January to September[1] - In October, the general public budget revenue recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, up from 2.6% in September, driven primarily by tax revenue which grew by 8.6%[1][2] - Personal income tax showed a remarkable year-on-year growth of 27.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 16.7%, making it a core driver of tax revenue growth[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure from January to October 2025 totaled 22.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2%[1] - In October, public budget expenditure decreased by 9.8%, marking the first negative growth of the year, attributed to earlier fiscal spending in the first half of the year and constraints from the annual deficit requirements[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a significant decline of 26.7%, indicating reduced support for traditional fiscal investment methods[5] Tax Revenue Dynamics - Non-tax revenue experienced a sharp decline of 33.0%, indicating an ongoing improvement in the quality of fiscal revenue[1] - Export tax rebates fell by 14.8%, suggesting a potential weakening in external demand, consistent with the downward trend in October's export growth[2] - The growth rate of securities transaction stamp duty normalized to 17.5%, down from a previous 342.4%, indicating a return to typical market conditions[2] Fiscal Policy Implications - The tightening of fiscal expenditure in October may necessitate an increase in the deficit ratio next year to support economic continuity, especially with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan"[3] - Local government land transfer revenue dropped by 27.3%, a significant increase in decline compared to the previous month's -1.0%, impacting government fund expenditures which fell by 38.2%[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, the broad fiscal revenue declined slightly, and the broad fiscal expenditure decreased significantly. To meet the budget targets at the beginning of the year, the revenue side has little difficulty, while the expenditure may accelerate significantly at the end of the year [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Revenue Side - **General Fiscal Revenue**: In October, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was - 0.6%, compared with 3.2% in the previous period. The general public budget revenue increased slightly, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.2% in October (previous value: 2.6%), tax revenue at 8.6% (previous value: 8.7%), and non - tax revenue at - 33% (previous value: - 11.4%) [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue**: In October, the four major taxes performed well, especially personal income tax. The growth rate of securities trading stamp duty declined due to the base effect. The year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 8.7%. Among the four major taxes, corporate income tax was 7.3% (previous value: 19.59%), personal income tax was 27.3% (previous value: 16.68%), domestic VAT was 7.2% (previous value: 7.60%), and domestic consumption tax was 4.4% (previous value: 3.83%). Real - estate - related taxes were - 1.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 3.4%), and vehicle purchase tax was - 16.8% (previous value: - 3.7%). Stamp duty and securities trading stamp duty were 9.4% and 17.5% year - on - year respectively, but declined month - on - month [2][11]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of government fund revenue was - 18.4%, compared with 5.6% in the previous period. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 2.8% (previous value: - 0.5%). There was no significant impulse phenomenon. The annual budget target for government fund revenue in 2025 is a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the current gap is not large [1][15]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was - 9.78%, compared with 3.08% in the previous period, the lowest growth rate of the year. All expenditure items decreased year - on - year, with infrastructure - related fiscal expenditure declining most significantly, at - 25.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 1.2%). Energy conservation and environmental protection was - 11.8%, urban and rural communities was - 24.0%, agriculture, forestry and water was - 32.8%, and transportation was - 14.8% [3][17]. - **Government Fund Expenditure**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of government fund expenditure was - 38.2%, compared with 0.4% in the previous period, also the lowest growth rate of the year [3][17]. - **Broad Fiscal Deficit**: From January to October, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 8.58 trillion yuan, down from 8.84 trillion yuan from January to September, indicating that the broad fiscal revenue exceeded expenditure in October. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the cumulative broad deficit rate in October was 6.1%, still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years [3][21]. Budget Completion - **Revenue Side**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fiscal revenue was 0.8%, exceeding the budget growth rate at the beginning of the year by 0.1%. From November to December, only a year - on - year decline of 3.7% is needed to meet the annual target. Government fund revenue needs to achieve a year - on - year growth rate of 5.3% from November to December, and land transfer revenue may increase at the end of the year [4][24]. - **Expenditure Side**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 2.0%, while the annual budget growth rate was 4.4%. From November to December, the year - on - year growth rate needs to reach 12.9%, and the government fund expenditure needs to reach 40.3%. The expenditure growth rate may accelerate significantly in the next two months, and there may even be a rush of expenditure at the end of the year [4][24].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that central banks may purchase significant amounts of gold in November to diversify reserves against geopolitical and financial risks, maintaining a price forecast of $4,900 by the end of 2026 [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 55%, driven by economic and geopolitical concerns, increased inflows into exchange-traded funds, and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - In September, central banks purchased 64 tons of gold, up from 21 tons in August [1] Group 2: Oil Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively, due to strong global supply (excluding Russia) [2] - UBS expects Brent crude oil prices to fluctuate between $60 and $70 per barrel, with a year-end target of $62 per barrel and a 2026 target of $67 per barrel [3] Group 3: Chinese Stock Market Outlook - UBS forecasts a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market in 2026, driven by factors such as innovation and a projected 14% upside for the MSCI China Index by year-end [4] - Earnings per share are expected to grow by 10% in 2026, supported by anti-involution measures and a decrease in depreciation expenses [4] Group 4: Currency Trends - Barclays economists suggest that the USD/JPY exchange rate may continue to rise, recommending investors to remain long on USD/JPY due to Japan's fiscal policies [5] Group 5: Central Bank Policies - Goldman Sachs Asset Management predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice in 2026, while the European Central Bank may maintain rates and the Bank of England may resume cuts in December [6] - Morgan Stanley anticipates further rate cuts from the European Central Bank in the first half of next year, with a target for the 10-year German bond yield at approximately 2.45% by the end of 2026 [8] Group 6: Semiconductor Sector - Galaxy Securities asserts that the long-term growth logic for the semiconductor sector remains intact despite recent underperformance, emphasizing supply chain security and domestic substitution trends [11] Group 7: AI and Consumer Electronics - Galaxy Securities highlights the potential for smart glasses to become a major consumer electronics category, following the entry of major tech companies into the AI glasses market [12] Group 8: Multi-Modal AI Trends - CITIC Securities identifies the shift towards native multi-modal architectures as a pivotal point for the industry, suggesting investment opportunities in both foundational and application layers [13] Group 9: Energy Demand and Coal Prices - Huatai Securities predicts that electricity consumption growth in October may exceed 10%, supporting a positive outlook for thermal coal prices in the fourth quarter [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the fiscal situation in China, highlighting trends in fiscal revenue and expenditure as well as property-related government revenue. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Revenue Growth**: On-budget fiscal revenue growth increased slightly to **3.2% year-on-year (yoy)** in October from **2.6% yoy** in September, despite a broad-based weakness in activity data [1][3][7] 2. **Fiscal Expenditure Decline**: Fiscal expenditure growth fell significantly to **-9.8% yoy** in October from **+3.1% yoy** in September, marking the lowest growth rate since December 2021 [2][7][9] 3. **Property-Related Revenue Weakness**: Property-related government revenue saw a notable decline, with land sales revenue dropping **-27.5% yoy** in October compared to **-0.9% yoy** in September. On-budget property-related tax revenue also remained weak at **-1.4% yoy** [2][8][9] 4. **Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD)**: The AFD metric narrowed in October, indicating a less supportive fiscal policy for growth. The AFD ratio was **-10.6% of GDP** on a 3-month moving average basis [1][3][9] 5. **Government Spending Trends**: The government’s fiscal "spend-through" ratio decreased slightly to **98.5%** in October from **98.8%** in September, suggesting a slowdown in fund deployment [9][10] 6. **Impact on Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: The deceleration in government spending growth, particularly in infrastructure, may have negatively impacted FAI growth, although other factors may also contribute to this trend [10] Additional Important Insights - **Non-Tax Revenue Contraction**: Non-tax revenue experienced a significant contraction of **-33.0% yoy** in October, widening from **-11.4% yoy** in September, primarily due to a high base effect [7] - **Overall Government Revenue**: Total government revenue growth slowed to **-0.6% yoy** in October from **+3.2% yoy** in September, while government expenditure growth dropped to **-19.1% yoy** from **+2.2% yoy** [9] - **Future Fiscal Policy Outlook**: There is a downside risk to the AFD forecast for this year (projected at **12.0% of GDP**), but expectations for continued fiscal expansion into next year remain, as indicated by recent policy communications [10]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/11/18 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,465.00 -60.00 | -260.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +80.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,780.00 -61.00 | -37.00↓ +21.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 356,547.00 | -34312.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 405,009.00 | + ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to October this year, national fiscal revenue showed a steady increase, with a cumulative growth rate of 0.8% year-on-year, which is an improvement of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [1] - In October alone, national fiscal revenue reached 2.26 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, indicating a continued upward trend in monthly growth [1] Revenue Breakdown - Total tax revenue from January to October amounted to 15.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.7%, which is an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the first nine months [1] - The computer and communication equipment manufacturing sector saw a tax revenue increase of 12.7%, while the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector experienced a 7.9% growth [1] Expenditure Insights - The government has implemented more proactive fiscal policies, increasing expenditure intensity and optimizing expenditure structure, with a focus on ensuring funding for key areas [1] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.3%, scientific and technological expenditures increased by 5.7%, and education expenditures rose by 4.7% [1]