A股复盘 | 一个雅江直接砸出一个牛市来 / 2025.07.22 今天写文压力很大，因为各个财经公众号的标题都很亮眼，但我每次写得都不及粉丝的留言 哈哈哈，今天煤炭、水泥又拉冒烟了！煤炭主要是市场传出"小作文"，国家能源局发布核查通知，超能力生产煤矿一律责令停产整改。随 后，一份能源局开展煤矿生产情况核查促进煤炭供应平稳有序的文件在网络上传播。反内卷进入加快落实阶段了！ 再就是水泥！虽然水泥发货有"合理运距"一说，但是感觉今天全国各地的水泥公司都涨停了！ 那么这个1.2万亿的雅江水电站对水泥钢铁有多少拉动呢？ Jefferies在研报中指出，若按10年建设期计算，该项目每年平均将消耗相当于西藏地区水泥年产量（2024年为1,300万吨）的25%-35%， 预计将显著推高区域供需紧张程度。 一些本地厂商预期水泥价格将从目前的500-600元/吨上涨至700元/吨。 瑞银也差不多，参照三峡水电站的2.7倍装机容量（三峡总计消耗水泥约1,600万吨），并假设为期10年的集中建设期，预计该水电项目将累 计消耗水泥4,300万吨，年均消耗约430万吨。增量部分占中国水泥年产能的不到0.2%， 但将使西藏水泥需求提升三 ...

Export Performance - June exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage points from May, but down 3.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2024[3] - Exports to the US saw a significant narrowing of the decline to -16.1%, an improvement of 18.4 percentage points since mid-May[4] - Exports to ASEAN and Hong Kong rose by 2.0 and 5.3 percentage points to 16.8% and 16.7% respectively[4] Import Trends - June imports grew by 1.1% year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 4.5 percentage points from May, marking a return to positive growth after three months[5] - The decline in crude oil imports narrowed to -14.3%, a reduction of 7.9 percentage points, influenced by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions[5] - Capital goods, chemicals, and intermediate goods for domestic demand showed improvement in imports, while processing trade and consumer goods imports declined[5] Economic Outlook - The second quarter's export performance is expected to positively impact economic growth, driven by the temporary easing of US-China tariffs and resilient export supply chains[6] - However, potential risks include increased uncertainty in global trade policies and a possible decline in exports to the US and ASEAN after July[6] - The central bank may consider monetary easing to stabilize the real estate market and support domestic demand if exports decline significantly post-August[6]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 适当关注战略性基建项目主题 2025 年 06 月 22 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 2024/6/24 2024/10/22 2025/2/19 2025/6/19 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《更大力度地推动房地产市场止跌回 稳》 2025-06-15 《家庭消费仍有潜力，期待服务消费 刺激》 2025-06-08 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.6.16–2025.6.20，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅- 1.42%，同期沪深 300、万得全 ...