点击小程序查看报告原文 居民存款搬家趋势初显 近期A股市场持续活跃，上证指数突破3800点，创10年新高，近一周（8月18-22日）A股市场日均成交额达2.6万亿元，以自由流通市值计算的日均换手率 近5%。 市场活跃度提升、增量资金入市的来源之一是居民存款搬家的初步显现。 近年来我国居民储蓄增长较快，2022年-2024年居民累计新增存款48.7万 亿元，储蓄存款余额累计增长47.6%，增速高于名义GDP增长。但近期随着市场和宏观环境变化，出现了一定的居民"存款搬家"现象，具体包括： 1）非 银金融存款提升。 7月新增居民存款同比减少了0.8万亿元，余额同比增长10.3%，而非银金融机构存款同比多增1.4万亿元，余额同比增长15.2%。 2）活 期存款增速有所回升。 住户活期存款同比增速从2024年初接近0的水平修复至2025年7月的6.8%，与此同时定期存款增速从14.9%下行至11.5%，企业活期 存款同比增速也转正。 3）A股市场个人投资者活跃度提升。 截至8月22日两融余额超过2.1万亿元，接近2015年的历史高点；7月上交所A股新增开户数达 196万，相比6月多增31.7万户。原本存入居民存款的一部 ...

2025 年 8 月 24 日 策略研究 3800 点后，继续看多市场 ——策略周专题（2025 年 8 月第 3 期） 要点 本周 A 股市场继续上涨 受风险偏好抬升等因素的影响，本周 A 股市场继续上涨。受政策利好刺激、市 场情绪回暖等因素的影响，A 股市场本周整体继续上行，主要宽基指数普遍上涨。 在主要宽基指数中，本周科创 50 涨幅最大，而上证 50 涨幅最小。 行业方面，通信、电子、综合表现相对较好。分行业来看，本周申万一级行业普 遍出现上涨。通信、电子、综合等行业本周表现相对较好，涨幅分别为 10.8%、 8.9%及 8.2%；相比之下，房地产、煤炭、医药生物等行业涨幅则靠后。 市场有望持续上行，积极做多 近期 A 股表现强势，已经突破去年高点。4 月 8 日以来，国内市场持续上行，并 且不断创下年内新高，在近期上证指数更是突破了去年的高点。在市场上涨的过 程中，整体回撤也相对较小，上证指数最大回撤率仅为 2.48%。截至 8 月 22 日， 上证指数的收盘点位为 3826。 展望未来，我们认为市场仍然有望继续上行。目前来看，支撑股票市场上涨的逻 辑并没有发生变化，市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现 ...

每日经济新闻消息，刚过去的交易周（8月18日~8月22日），A股用一种相当神奇的方式，诠释了什么 叫"慢牛"，什么叫"慢就是快"。 让我们把时间往回调↓ 本周五，8月22日，沪指站上3800点； 再往前，从5月6日到6月23日，在3300点~3400点震荡了34个交易日。 再往前，4月7日到4月30日，从3040.69点触底反弹至3300点附近。 …… 这就是最近4个半月，96个交易日，沪指的"来时路"。 其他主要股指走势整体相仿，因此本文将围绕沪指展开讨论。 不难发现，随着指数越走越高（目前已创出十年新高），突破整数关口消耗的时间变得越来越短。 因此，和近十年的历史行情相比，这次的"慢牛"实际上并不慢。 6个交易日前的8月14日，盘中首度站上3700点； 7个交易日前的8月5日，最近一次站稳3600点； 19个交易日前的7月9日，站上3500点； 11个交易日前的6月24日，站上3400点； 同样是上涨约800点—— 2020年6月下旬到2021年2月中旬，沪指从2966点涨到3731点，花了35周，接近9个月。 2016年1月底到2018年2月初，沪指从2638点反弹至3462点，更是用了整整两年！ （当 ...

资金驱动上涨，私募连续两周加仓 近期，A股市场呈现企稳回升态势，私募机构也随之调整仓位布局。根据私募排排网数据，截至8月15 日，股票私募连续两周加仓，仓位指数为74.86%，较前一周上升0.64个百分点，这意味着股票私募加仓 意愿正在增强。从周期来看，私募仓位回升与市场情绪回暖基本同步，此数据或表示机构投资者对后市 的态度趋于乐观。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张玫 北京报道 近日，A股市场延续强势格局，交投情绪持续高涨。在资金踊跃入场、政策面利好频出的推动下，沪深 两市成交额连续多个交易日在2万亿元以上。 伴随着市场信心归来，私募基金正以真金白银的投入表达对后市的乐观预期。私募排排网最新数据显 示，截至2025年8月15日，百亿私募仓位指数大幅上涨8.16个百分点，达到82.29%，创下年内单周最大 加仓纪录。这一数据标志着百亿私募仓位指数在时隔4周后重新站上80%的关键水平线。 与此同时，股票私募仓位指数也连续第二周上涨，达到74.86%。逾五成股票私募选择满仓操作，而满 仓的百亿私募占比更是高达61.97%，较前一周的37.16%大幅提升24.81个百分点。 从仓位分布的变化来看，百 ...

[Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-8-22 [Table_Author] 策略分析师：郑小霞 [Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 市场点评 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 策略分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 权重领涨，再上新台阶 主要观点 ⚫[Table_Su 市场异动 8 月 22 日市场大涨，其中上证指数收涨 1.45%，创本轮新高并首次站上 3800 点。创业板指收涨 3.36%，同样续创新高。全 A 成交额 2.58 万亿，继续维 持高位。行业层面，多数上涨但也存在较大分化，其中电子（4.82%）、通信 （3.77%）、计算机（3.50%）、券商（3.42%）领涨，而银行、能源等下跌。 ⚫ H20 芯片停产、算力业绩持续超预期等催化，市场交投热情高涨，风 险偏好持续走强下带动创业板指大涨 今日创业板指大涨，核心原因在于：牛市热烈氛围下，成长科技叠加事件 催化加成，上涨弹性充分释放，同时作 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market opened lower but experienced a strong upward trend in the afternoon, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.89%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.23% [4][6][10] - The market turnover was approximately 2.45 trillion yuan, with 3,673 stocks rising across the market [6][10] - The top-performing sectors included oil and gas, electronics, and automobiles, while healthcare showed a slight decline [6][10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.89%, the ChiNext Index by 0.23%, the Shanghai 50 by 1.23%, the CSI 300 by 1.14%, the Sci-Tech 50 by 3.23%, and the CSI 1000 by 0.86% [6][10] - The leading sectors on August 20, 2025, were oil and gas (+2.34%), electronics (+2.21%), automobiles (+2.05%), and insurance (+1.89%), while healthcare (-0.02%) was the laggard [6][10] Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was driven by strong performance in the Sci-Tech 50 and sectors such as GPU, servers, and white liquor. The demand for AI infrastructure from domestic enterprises continues to grow, supported by high earnings certainty during the earnings season [6][10] - The State Council's emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market and stimulating consumption also contributed to the positive market sentiment [6][10] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, expecting continued monetary and fiscal support. Historical experiences suggest that domestic policy initiatives can help the market withstand external risks and volatility [6][10] - Investment strategies should focus on non-bank sectors in a "slow bull" market, as well as sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics, such as metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [6][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's profit - making effect attracts various investors to accelerate their layout. Foreign institutional investors' recognition of the allocation value of Chinese assets has increased, leading to a sharp rise in trading volume in the two markets and intensified market volatility. Although short - term technical indicators show overbought signs, abundant liquidity provides support, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. Industry sectors are in a healthy rotation, and the comparative advantage of Chinese assets in global risk assets is prominent. Recently, the AI, military, and small metals sectors are expected to strengthen again [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy Updates**: The five - department joint notice from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and others has added three new withdrawal conditions for personal pensions starting from September 1st, including suffering from serious diseases, receiving unemployment insurance benefits, and receiving urban and rural minimum living security benefits. Specific operation methods have also been clarified, allowing participants to withdraw personal pensions monthly, in installments, or in a lump sum. In July, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 - year - old labor force in urban areas was 17.8%, 6.9% for the 25 - 29 - year - old labor force, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 - year - old labor force (excluding students) [1] - **Overseas Policy Updates**: The US Department of Commerce has included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% applicable tax rate. The new list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and their components, mobile cranes, railway vehicles, furniture, compressors, and pump equipment. The Trump administration has repeatedly emphasized expanding the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs to protect domestic manufacturing and curb import dependence [1] - **Stock Market Performance**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices closed lower with fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.02% to 3727.29 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.17%. In terms of industries, sector indices showed mixed performance, with the communication, food and beverage, and commercial retail sectors leading the gains, while the non - bank finance, national defense and military industry, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on that day remained at 2.6 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed with mixed results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high during the session, but the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.46% to 44922.27 points due to the drag of technology stocks [2] - **Futures Market Performance**: In the futures market, the basis of the near - month IC contract rebounded. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [2] Strategy - The market's profit - making effect attracts investors, and foreign institutions recognize the value of Chinese assets. Despite short - term overbought signs, liquidity support maintains the upward trend. Industry sectors rotate healthily, and sectors such as AI, military, and small metals are expected to strengthen [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][13] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on August 19, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.17%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.38%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.07% [15] - **Other Indicators**: Charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances are also provided [16] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract decreased by 40988 to 109269, and the open interest decreased by 15341 to 258257 [19] - **Basis**: The basis of each contract shows different changes. For example, the basis of the IF contract's near - month contract decreased by 5.56 to - 7.17, while the basis of the IC contract's near - month contract increased by 4.86 to - 55.31 [41] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of different contracts also have corresponding changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month IF contracts decreased by 2.40 to - 4.80 [47]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Component Index turned positive, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index's decline narrowed to within 1% [1] - Strong performance was observed in sectors such as military industry, under-screen cameras, aerospace, and insurance [1]

Group 1 - On August 18, over 800 stock ETFs experienced an increase in scale, representing more than 70% of the approximately 1100 stock ETFs in the market, with a total scale increase of just over 40 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.26% [1][2] - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw a scale increase of nearly 3.5 billion yuan, approaching the 400 billion yuan mark, while the E Fund ChiNext ETF increased by over 3 billion yuan, totaling around 94 billion yuan [2] - The active trading amounts for stock ETFs exceeded 100 billion yuan on August 18, with the highest active buy and sell amounts recorded for the E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF, at 16.8 billion yuan and 16.2 billion yuan respectively [3] Group 2 - The stock ETFs released a trend signal on August 18, reversing a net outflow status that had persisted for 10 weeks, with a net inflow recorded on that day [4] - The average daily trading volume of stock ETFs reached 145.5 billion yuan on August 18, significantly higher than the previous weeks, indicating a recovery in market activity [5] - A public fund indicated that the A-share market had shown a gradually strengthening momentum prior to August 18, suggesting that the market's upward trend may require time for investor sentiment to shift [6] Group 3 - The current A-share market is viewed as transitioning into a "slow bull" pattern, driven by a combination of policy support and improving corporate earnings, contrasting with the rapid liquidity-driven bull market of 2015 [7] - The market's upward movement is characterized by a focus on "high dividend + growth" investment strategies, with a stronger support from national strength and significant foreign investment compared to previous cycles [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, supported by both capital inflow and fundamental performance [2][3][4]. Market Performance - On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, closing at 3728 points, marking the highest level since August 20, 2015. The total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan [2]. - Since the end of June, the A-share market has been on an upward trend, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan. Small-cap and growth styles have outperformed, with notable increases in indices such as the ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 [2][3]. Capital and Fundamental Support - The recent market performance is driven by capital inflow and earnings support, with a significant increase in trading volume and margin financing balances. The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and ongoing supportive policies in China [3]. - The current earnings season is crucial, with a focus on industries showing strong fundamentals [3]. Valuation Analysis - The overall valuation of A-shares is considered reasonable, with the CSI 300's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio around 12.2 times, indicating it is not overvalued compared to historical levels. The market capitalization to GDP ratio remains relatively low among major global markets [4]. - The market's total capitalization to M2 ratio is approximately 33%, which is at the 60% historical percentile, suggesting a balanced valuation [4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with high growth potential and earnings validation, such as AI/computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and non-ferrous metals [5]. - Consider industries benefiting from increased retail participation, such as brokerage and insurance, as well as sectors aligned with government policies like photovoltaic energy [5].