Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 121.290, and the 10-year main contract down 0.01% at 109.155 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.8380%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.15 basis points to 1.7070% [1] Funding Situation - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 220.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [2] - The overall funding situation is relatively loose, with overnight pledged repo rates slightly declining but remaining around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate increased by over 1 basis point [2] News Developments - Recent reports indicate that the scope of special bonds is expanding, with new uses including investment in government investment funds [3] - The new special bond issuance is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, focusing on land acquisition and settling local government debts [3] Operational Suggestions - Recent high-frequency data shows signs of weakening in exports, while the central bank's signals of support and declining funding rates are favorable for the bond market [4] - The overall bond rates are expected to maintain a downward trend, with a potential breakthrough at the 1.6% level for the 10-year government bond yield if the central bank resumes bond purchases [4]

Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment significantly influences the growth theme market, with a stable macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2025 providing a conducive space for theme market development [2][3] - In early 2023, the adjustment of pandemic policies led to a rapid release of pent-up demand, creating a "strong expectation, weak reality" macro environment that improved market risk appetite and supported the ChatGPT theme market [2] - By early 2024, economic recovery momentum weakened, leading to a constrained space for the SORA theme market due to pressures from slowing consumption recovery and real estate investment [2] - The current macro environment characterized by "steady recovery + policy support" has led to a neutral overall expectation for economic growth, which is favorable for the further development of the current technology theme market [2][3] Style Switching - Sustainable fundamental expectations are necessary for the further expansion of the market, as seen in the divergence between the ChatGPT theme and growth/profitability styles in 2023 [3][4] - The SORA market in 2024 differed from the previous round as market expectations for net profit growth in the AI sector significantly increased, leading to a simultaneous strengthening of growth styles [3][4] - The strong performance of defensive styles such as dividends and low valuations from 2022 to mid-2024 impacted the theme market, with the ChatGPT theme failing to boost growth styles [4] - The current growth style has shown strength after a pullback in January, with a high degree of industry diffusion, suggesting a potential extension of the current market duration while monitoring the rebound of defensive styles [4]