证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 07 年 月 日 债市开年连续下跌。新年伊始，债市连续下跌，其中以超长利率债上升最为明显， 10 年和 30 年国债较上周分别上升 3.6bps 和 4.3bps 至 1.88%和 2.31%。其它债 券利率虽然上升幅度相对较小，但也有不同程度的上行，债市走势超出我们此前 预期。从调整原因来看，年初债市下跌可能是多方面因素促成的。 首先，股市的强劲表现是最为突出的原因。开年股市连续上涨，上证指数突破 4000 点，开年两个交易日上涨 100 点以上。开年市场强劲的表现一方面吸引非银资金 从债市向股市转移，另一方面，风险偏好的提升也使得投资者在债券投资上保持 谨慎，缩短久期减配长债。其次，市场对供给的担忧上升，特别是随着首周较大规 模的债券发行量和单只发行规模的公布，引发对后续供给上升的担忧。首周政府 债净融资规模 6127 亿元，其中国债净融资 4950 亿元。本周 2 年和 10 年国债单 只发行规模分别为 1750 亿元和 1800 亿元，显著高于去年下半年单只发行水平， 与去年上半年单只最大规模基本持平。开年政府债发行节奏加快，以 ...

开局高起点，全年预计先下后上。 走过由债牛转向阴跌的2025年，新的一年债市走势分歧加大。元旦节后，银行间市场主要利率债收益率 仍以上行为主，1月6日，10年期品种收益率来到1.88%的阶段新高，30年期品种收益率则直接突破 2.3%，一度行至2.315%。 回顾近几年债市情况，多数年份以较上年更低的利率起点开局，2026年的起点明显更高，也被视为一种 交易安全垫。但展望全年，中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，债市的干扰因素依然较多，利率预计将先 下后上。 短期来看，综合考虑年初货币宽松预期不强，叠加供给压力等忧虑增加，机构普遍预测债市走势偏弱。 央行日前披露的数据显示，2025年12月公开市场买卖国债净投放流动性500亿元，继续低于市场预期。 阴跌的债市驶入2026 相较于单边债牛的2024年，2025年债市圈的日子不太好过。尤其是去年四季度以来，持续的阴跌与机构 抛售形成负反馈，长债利率大幅上行。 截至2025年12月31日，10年期国债期货主力合约全年累计跌了0.95%，30年期主力合约累计跌幅达到 5.62%。银行间现券方面，10年期国债活跃券"25附息国债16"票面利率1.83%，年末收益率收于1.85 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile manner. The short - end has high allocation and trading value, and the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate is in a high - allocation - value range with the possibility of an unexpected decline at the end of the year. The long - end has some room for repair due to the previous expansion of the term spread. With the increasing expectation of easing, a more optimistic view on the subsequent bond market can be taken [2][9]. - To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, it is necessary to maintain the growth rates of social financing and money supply, and pay attention to the red - line level around 8%. If the growth rates fall below this level, it may trigger monetary easing [2][4][10]. - The current interest - rate comparison relationships concerned by the central bank are relatively reasonable, which is a prerequisite for further reducing policy rates. After the large - scale repurchase in November, the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low. The conditions for another reduction of policy rates are mature. For the bond market, the yield may maintain a narrow - range oscillation. A reduction in policy rates will bring an opportunity for the yield curve to shift downward, but the short - end has a more solid foundation for decline, while the long - end still faces strong cashing - out pressure [3][4][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to Understand the Relatively Loose Social Financing Conditions? - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile way. The short - end has high value, and the long - end has repair space. With the increasing easing expectation, the subsequent bond market can be viewed more optimistically [2][9]. - **Social Financing and Money Growth Rates**: Credit growth decline is not a major concern, but a further decline in social financing and money growth rates needs attention. The 8% growth - rate range reflects economic growth and price - expectation targets, and a fall below it may trigger monetary easing. The social financing growth is affected by the government bond issuance rhythm, and non - bank deposits maintain high volatility [10]. - **Interest - Rate Relationships and Policy Implications**: The current interest - rate comparison relationships are relatively reasonable. To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, policy rates and related interest - rate levels can be further reduced to hedge economic pressure from a "cross - cycle" perspective [12]. - **Central Bank Operations**: After the large - scale repurchase in November (the combined scale of 3 - month and 6 - month repurchases reached 500 billion, and the stock scale rose to a new high of 6.3 trillion), the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a volatile and weak - trending situation, with the long - end and short - end yields showing different trends. The long - end yields move up and down following multiple logics, while the short - end yields are at a low level and are weakly volatile. The central bank's bond - buying operation may open up the game space for long - term interest rates, but the "rush - ahead" market in the bond market from November to December this year may not necessarily reappear [1][5][6]. - The positioning of the central bank's national debt trading tool is becoming more diversified and three - dimensional, which is an important part of improving the micro - foundation of the bond market and enhancing pricing efficiency. The impact of the scale of bond - buying on liquidity is not the main factor, and the ultimate shape of the yield curve depends on the desired range, which is affected by market expectations, fundamental conditions, and institutional behavior [2][3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review: Bond Market Continues to Seek Direction - This week, the bond market showed a volatile and weak - trending market under the rapid switching of multiple pricing logics. The long - end yields first declined and then rose following the logics of "central bank's bond - buying implementation - stock market strength suppressing - expectation fermentation of the new regulations on fund sales fees implementation", while the short - end yields were at a low level, and the central bank's bond - buying had limited boosting effect, showing a weak - trending volatility. On Friday, the short - end yields continued to correct due to slightly tight funds [1][8]. - At the beginning of the week, the market was mainly pricing around the central bank's restart of bond - buying in October. After the implementation of national debt trading on Tuesday afternoon, the long - end yields first rose and then strengthened. On Wednesday afternoon, the trading logic switched to the "stock - bond seesaw", and the bond market was suppressed by the strong stock market. On Friday, the expectation of the new regulations on fund sales fees implementation dominated the bond market, and the tightened funds also dragged down the market [8]. 3.2 This Week's Focus: How to Price the Yield Curve with the Central Bank's Resumption of Bond - Buying? - On October 27, the central bank mentioned resuming national debt trading, with new information including directly linking national debt trading to guiding the yield curve shape, affirming the current bond market operation, emphasizing two - way trading operations, and believing that national debt trading is beneficial to the reform and development of the bond market and the improvement of financial institutions' market - making and pricing capabilities [2][10]. - In October, the central bank net - bought 20 billion yuan of national debt. There is no need to over - focus on the relationship between the bond - buying scale in October and the operation time. The scale of bond - buying does not have a major impact on liquidity. National debt trading may open up the game space for long - term interest rates, and the market's pricing of the resumption of bond - buying may be nearing the end [3][12][14]. - The scale of bond - buying affects the market through expectations. A higher scale can boost market confidence, while a limited scale may be a short - term negative factor. The final shape of the yield curve depends on the desired range, which is affected by market expectations of interest rate trends, fundamental repair conditions, and institutional behavior [4][15][17]. 3.3 Next Week's Concern: Will There Be a "Rush - Ahead" Market at the End of the Year? - Near the end of the year, the market is turning its attention to the cross - year allocation market. The "rush - ahead" market at the end of last year was the main driving force for the rapid decline of bond market interest rates. However, this year, there are differences. The sustainability of the purchases by allocation - oriented investors such as rural commercial banks, large - scale banks, and insurance companies remains to be observed, and the increase in the purchase scale of wealth management products and funds is mainly driven by the expansion of the liability side, not by the rapid decline of bond market interest rates [5][19]. - It is believed that the "rush - ahead" market in the bond market from November to December this year may not necessarily reappear. The purchases by allocation - oriented investors may be restricted by floating losses and the high - base effect of last year's performance. Additionally, the imagination space for loose monetary policy has shrunk compared to the end of last year [5][22]. 3.4 Outlook for the Future - If the stock market strengthens and concerns about the new fund regulations ferment, it will still suppress the bond market. However, the wave - like recovery of the fundamentals and the central bank's resumption of bond - buying limit the upward adjustment momentum of interest rates. The cross - year allocation market remains to be confirmed, but the game space for long - term interest rates may be opened up. One can try to seize trading opportunities for long - term interest rates but should respond cautiously with a volatile mindset [6][23]. - In terms of spread trading, the current bond - swapping market has generally ended. The further compression space of the "China Development Bank Bond - National Debt" spread needs to be continuously observed based on the purchasing momentum of allocation - oriented investors. The "deposit transfer" may make the scale of wealth management products resilient, and the purchasing power of wealth management products may support medium - and short - term credit bonds. One can focus on medium - and short - duration bonds with coupon value [6][23][24].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in major indices last week, with the ChiNext Index increasing over 8% and the CSI 100 rising by 3.57% [1] - The central bank's net fund injection last week was 198.1 billion yuan, maintaining stable liquidity since late October [1] - Commodity prices showed mixed trends, with non-ferrous metals rebounding, crude oil slightly rising, and pork prices continuing to decline [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 98.94, with a week-on-week increase of 0.39%, while the Chinese yuan appreciated slightly to 7.13 [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to see a continuation of stable and flexible policies, focusing on "four stabilizations" [1] - The conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session maintained good policy continuity, and the fifth round of China-U.S. negotiations reached a basic consensus, reducing uncertainties [1] Group 3 - The banking sector faces liquidity pressure in the fourth quarter, increasing the necessity for a reserve requirement ratio cut [5] - Historical trends suggest that a reserve requirement cut typically occurs twice a year, with the last cut over five months ago, making a fourth-quarter cut likely [5] - The market anticipates that if economic data continues to show downward pressure, it may lead to a gradual opening of the monetary easing window [5] Group 4 - The global sovereign debt stock reached $78.97 trillion as of October 16, 2025, with the U.S., Japan, and China accounting for nearly 60% [7] - The issuance of sovereign debt has seen significant growth post-2008 and 2020, with emerging economies like Argentina becoming important issuers [7] - The overall turnover rate of sovereign debt remains within a range of 1.00% to 2.50%, with emerging markets showing greater volatility [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Focus on the central bank's bond - buying operations. Maintain a long - position idea for treasury bond futures, hold existing long positions at low levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher. Except for TL, all contracts maintained gains. TL weakened significantly in the afternoon and was the only one to close down. The marginal relaxation of the capital market led to the DR001 falling to around 1.41%. There were 557.7 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 80.5 billion yuan [1] 2. Important News - The Wall Street Journal reported that leaders of China and the United States will discuss a trade framework to reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods, and the US may halve the current 20% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods. Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 local time [2] 3. Market Analysis - The stock market performed strongly today, with the broader market standing above 4,000 points again, but the bond market was unaffected. The yields of 1 - 3 - year spot bonds declined by 3 - 4bp. There were rumors that large banks were buying all new bonds issued this year with a maturity of less than 3 years. The game around the central bank's bond - buying operations mainly focused on the short - to - medium - term in recent days. Yesterday, the 3 - year yield declined the most, and today, it spread to bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years. Attention should be paid to whether the long - term yields can follow the decline after the short - term interest rates reach a certain level [3] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 29 | 2025 - 10 - 28 | Today's Change | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 29 | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 28 | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.564 | 102.47 | 0.094 | 80,824 | 78,077 | 2,747 | | TF2512 | 106.06 | 105.905 | 0.155 | 175,746 | 162,038 | 13,708 | | T2512 | 108.58 | 108.425 | 0.155 | 282,522 | 274,231 | 8,291 | | TL2512 | 115.93 | 116.14 | - 0.21 | 185,819 | 185,933 | - 114 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0241 | - 0.0023 | - 0.0218 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 56,118 | 39,423 | 16,695 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0746 | 0.085 | - 0.1596 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 99,318 | 67,869 | 31,449 | | T Basis (CTD) | - 0.0279 | 0.1987 | - 0.2266 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 91,358 | 75,068 | 16,290 | | TL Basis (CTD) | - 0.0156 | 0.3712 | - 0.3868 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 125,436 | 123,331 | 2,105 | [4]

Market Overview - The bond market continued to recover on September 17, with all major government bond futures closing higher, and interbank bond yields declining in the afternoon [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan in the open market, while short-term funding rates rose across the board due to tax payment impacts [1][5] Government Bonds - The closing prices for government bond futures were as follows: 30-year main contract up 0.31% at 115.880, 10-year main contract up 0.13% at 108.155, 5-year main contract up 0.10% at 105.890, and 2-year main contract up 0.04% at 102.456 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds decreased, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield down 1 basis point to 1.911%, and the 10-year government bond yield down 1.5 basis points to 1.765% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 3.15 basis points to 3.495% and the 10-year yield down 0.58 basis points to 4.028% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly declined, with the 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points to 1.594% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased slightly, with French bonds up 1 basis point to 3.486% and German bonds up 0.2 basis points to 2.691% [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for newly issued government bonds: 28-day at 1.1295%, 91-day at 1.2514%, and 20-year at 2.1616%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.49, 3.27, and 5.71 respectively [4] Funding Conditions - The PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation with a total of 418.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [5] - Short-term Shibor rates rose, with the overnight rate up 4.6 basis points to 1.483% and the 7-day rate up 4.4 basis points to 1.519% [5] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Securities noted that economic data from August showed continued convergence, with external demand stronger than internal demand, suggesting a potential stabilization in the bond market [7] - CITIC Securities indicated that while August economic data was stable, pressures remain, and the bond market's response to fundamental factors is currently muted [7] - Guosheng Securities highlighted that economic data indicates a further slowdown in supply and demand, suggesting that the bond market may experience fluctuations but is gradually returning to fundamentals [7]

Group 1 - A-shares continue to perform strongly with a half-day trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, an increase of 571.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.86% and the ChiNext Index up 2.22%, reaching a three-year high [1] - There is a strong willingness for incremental capital to enter the market, driven by substantial household savings waiting to be invested and a margin financing balance remaining above 2 trillion yuan; additionally, foreign capital has begun to flow into A-shares for the first time since October of last year [1] - The bond futures market has seen significant increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.8%, currently at 116.830 points, and the 10-year and 5-year contracts also showing gains [1] Group 2 - Since 2010, only fundamentally driven stock bull markets have led to bear markets in bonds, while fund-driven bull markets have not; the major stock bull markets since 2010 include a fund-driven bull market from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015, and a recovery-driven bull market in 2017 and 2020 [2] - The current stock market rally is expected to influence bond market investor expectations, but the bond market's performance will ultimately depend on economic fundamentals, with a potential decoupling from stock market trends [2] - The bond market's largest allocation force, bank proprietary investments, has seen a significant increase, with bank holdings of bonds reaching 99 trillion yuan, accounting for 52% of the total bond market [3] Group 3 - Economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year, with consumer subsidies potentially overstretching demand in the home appliance sector and investment growth declining significantly [4] - The central bank may consider restarting government bond purchases to stabilize issuance costs and prevent risks in the bond market, especially as government bond yields have recently risen [4] - Banks are expected to increase their bond allocations due to declining funding costs and weak credit demand, with the overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for A-share listed banks projected to drop below 1.7% in Q4 2025 [5] Group 4 - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remains in a narrow - range oscillation. Factors such as "anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are structural reform measures that may have short - term impacts on the bond market sentiment, but the overall situation of the bond market has not changed. It is recommended to maintain a portfolio of 3 - year policy financial bonds + 10 - year + 4 - 5 - year credit bonds [2][3][57] - The "anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are beneficial for improving resource allocation efficiency, but their short - term impact on investment demand may be limited. The long - term impact on the economy needs to be further observed [3][38][54] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. The central bank maintains relative looseness within the established framework, and the unfreezing of collateral bonds has limited benefits - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose to 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.5%. The increase in the central bank's claims on other depository corporations was basically in line with high - frequency data, which might be the core factor for the lower - than - expected excess reserve ratio [6] - The central bank's short - term motivation to further relax the aggregate policy has weakened, but its concern about the bond investment risks of small and medium - sized banks has eased, and the constraint of long - term interest rates on liquidity loosening has decreased [13] - The actual capital situation was affected by the tax period. The central bank increased its net investment, and the capital tightened first and then loosened slightly. The short - term capital factor may not drive the interest rate to a new low [14][16] - The central bank's proposed cancellation of the freezing of collateral bonds for bond repurchases may indicate a consideration to restart bond purchases. The expectation of bond purchases may have a limited positive impact on the short - end, but it is unlikely to drive the interest rate to a new low in the short term [16][18] II. Domestic demand weakened significantly in June, but the improvement of financial data boosted macro - expectations - In June, the industrial added - value growth rate reached 6.8%, driven by the increase in export delivery value. However, the Q2 GDP growth rate dropped to 5.2% due to the negative growth of the construction industry [19] - From the demand side, except for the improvement of external demand driven by export rush, consumption and investment growth declined significantly in June. The pressure on external demand may further emerge after July, and consumption growth may face pressure without further policy support [25][29] - In June, fixed - asset investment growth rate turned negative, and real - estate sales declined. The sustainability of the rebound in real - estate new construction and completion needs to be observed [32] - In June, financial data was relatively strong. The increase in social financing scale and credit was mainly due to government bond financing and enterprise short - term loans, which may be affected by the strict payment terms of central and state - owned enterprises. This has boosted the expectation of economic improvement and affected the bond market sentiment [35][37][38] III. "Anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are part of the structural reform, and their short - term impact should not be overestimated - "Anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are structural reform measures to improve resource allocation efficiency. Strict payment terms are beneficial for accelerating the cash recovery of upstream and mid - stream enterprises, but may not significantly boost investment demand in the short term [3][38][47] - The "anti - involution" mainly restricts local government behavior. The current over - capacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors, and it is more difficult to clear the over - capacity through administrative orders. Without demand - side support, its impact on inflation may take longer to appear [50][51][54] - The implementation of "anti - involution" needs to be further observed, as the central bank's policy on credit has changed between 2024 and 2025 [56] IV. The main contradiction in the bond market has not changed. Be patient and wait for the break of the oscillation pattern - The main contradiction in the bond market has not changed. The narrow interest - rate spread space makes it difficult for the slowdown of economic momentum to prompt the central bank to implement a new round of loosening policies. The long - term interest rate remains in a narrow - range oscillation [57] - If the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting in late July are limited, the A - share market may enter a correction, and the downward pressure on the fundamentals may further appear, which may drive a qualitative change in the bond market. It is recommended to switch from non - active bonds to active bonds and maintain the current bond portfolio [57][58]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific operation suggestions for various commodities, which can be roughly summarized as follows: - **Buy**: Iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (in certain circumstances), urea, short - fiber, bottle - chip, soybean meal and rapeseed meal (short - term), live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar (short - term), glass, polysilicon (with caution), lithium carbonate [2] - **Sell**: Synthetic rubber, styrene, caustic soda (mid - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, sugar (rebound), cotton, eggs (near - month), apples, peanuts, pure membrane, rubber, industrial silicon [2] - **Hold/Observe**: Stock index futures, treasury bonds, precious metals, container shipping index, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (short - term), PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, styrene, caustic soda (short - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, soybean meal and rapeseed meal, live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, peanuts, glass, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate [2][4] 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The stock index has sector rotation and upward pressure. The bond market may have short - term fluctuations but remains generally strong. Gold and silver prices show different trends due to factors such as inflation data and macro - policies [2] - **Industrial Commodities**: Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory. The iron ore market has high - level iron water production and resilient terminal demand. The coal market has weak - stable spot prices and improved trading [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Different products have different trends, such as PTA and short - fiber with supply - demand changes and cost - related impacts [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, the price of live pigs is affected by early - stage diarrhea in piglets, and the price of sugar is affected by overseas supply prospects [2] - **Special Commodities**: Special commodities like glass and rubber are affected by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, glass has better spot market sales, and rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: Observe the discount state of index futures, recommend buying the deeply discounted 09 contracts of CSI 1000 on dips and selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contracts above 6300 to form a covered call portfolio [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: On the unilateral strategy, buy treasury bond futures on dips. On the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and consider steepening the yield curve [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuate between $3300 - 3400. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options. Silver prices are strongly oscillating between $36 - 37 [2] Industrial Commodities - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the steel rebar RB2510, consider the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production remains high, and terminal demand is resilient. Buy on dips with an upper pressure level around 720 [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal trading has improved, and the price is expected to rise. Coke prices are close to the bottom. Consider the long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy [2] Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is driven by fundamentals, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upper pressure of Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level of SC is in the range of [490, 500]. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA and short - fiber have supply - demand changes. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - fiber is expected to repair processing fees [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The diarrhea of piglets at the beginning of the year may affect subsequent supply, and the market sentiment is strong. Be cautiously bullish [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply prospects are relatively loose. Trade short on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot market sales are improving, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [2] - **Rubber**: The fundamental outlook is weakening, and short positions should be held if the price is above 14000 [2]