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申银万国期货早间策略-20251020
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again. Domestically, the liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. Externally, with the Fed's rate cuts and RMB appreciation, foreign funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the potential intensification of Q4 growth - stabilization policies and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4539.60, 4495.80, 4485.20, and 4463.00 respectively, with declines of - 71.60, - 101.00, - 100.60, and - 101.20. The trading volumes were 19019.00, 35560.00, 99982.00, and 14870.00, and the changes in open interest were - 23420.00, 10934.00, 1460.00, and 2001.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2983.00, 2964.20, 2963.00, and 2963.60 respectively, with declines of - 35.00, - 53.00, - 54.40, and - 53.20. The trading volumes were 7404.00, 17069.00, 56818.00, and 7921.00, and the changes in open interest were - 9009.00, 4742.00, - 2091.00, and 396.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7064.00, 6922.40, 6863.20, and 6702.00 respectively, with declines of - 148.60, - 189.40, - 183.40, and - 179.60. The trading volumes were 18020.00, 36648.00, 97770.00, and 19962.00, and the changes in open interest were - 23203.00, 13500.00, 2402.00, and 837.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7230.20, 7100.00, 7020.80, and 6805.00 respectively, with declines of - 163.80, - 176.80, - 169.80, and - 166.40. The trading volumes were 29136.00, 55221.00, 173725.00, and 32831.00, and the changes in open interest were - 33142.00, 23468.00, 14163.00, and 4252.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 43.80, - 18.80, - 141.60, and - 130.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 14.40, 0.40, - 99.00, and - 110.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4514.23, 2967.77, 7016.07, and 7185.48 respectively, with declines of - 2.26%, - 1.70%, - 2.98%, and - 2.92%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 256.91, 62.68, 200.04, and 254.33, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 5590.86, 1487.49, 3481.14, and 3838.75 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had declines of - 0.78%, - 1.72%, - 3.37%, and - 2.19%. The major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had declines of - 1.48%, - 2.31%, - 1.08%, and - 4.02%. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors had declines of - 1.99% and - 0.51% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, and far - quarter - CSI 300) were 25.37, - 18.43, - 29.03, and - 51.23 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4.42, - 18.82, - 28.42, and - 51.62 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, and far - quarter - SSE 50) were 15.23, - 3.57, - 4.77, and - 4.17 respectively, compared to previous values of 0.00, 0.40, - 0.20, and - 0.20 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, and far - quarter - CSI 500) were 47.93, - 93.67, - 152.87, and - 314.07 respectively, compared to previous values of - 6.13, - 105.13, - 169.53, and - 336.33 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, and far - quarter - CSI 1000) were 44.72, - 85.48, - 164.68, and - 380.48 respectively, compared to previous values of 1.56, - 108.64, - 196.84, and - 420.44 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3839.76, 12688.94, 7815.57, and 2935.37 respectively, with declines of - 1.95%, - 3.04%, - 2.96%, and - 3.36% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25247.10, 48277.74, 6664.01, and 23830.99 respectively, with changes of - 2.48%, 1.27%, 0.53%, and - 1.82% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - **US Trade Policy**: US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in a recent interview, hinting that the door for negotiation remained open. The Trump administration is quietly relaxing multiple tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" in recent weeks and indicating willingness to exclude more products when other countries reach trade agreements with the US. This move comes before the Supreme Court's hearing on "reciprocal tariffs" in early November [2] - **HK Financial Official's View**: Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo - po stated that at the IMF and World Bank Group annual meetings in Washington, there were many concerns about the economic outlook. Business leaders and think - tanks in the US generally believed that stable Sino - US relations were crucial for both countries and the global economy. Many business friends expressed their hope to use Hong Kong as an entry point and springboard to explore the mainland and Asian markets [2] - **Fund Market**: As of October 19, 2025, the number of newly established funds this year reached 1163, exceeding the 1135 in 2024, indicating a strong recovery in the fund market. Among them, the number of newly established equity funds was 661, with an issuance scale of 339.396 billion yuan, accounting for 37.45% of the total issuance scale, reaching a 15 - year high since 2011. The total issuance scale this year was 906.273 billion yuan [2] - **ETF Market**: As of October 17, the net inflow of funds into the ETF market in October reached 99.161 billion yuan. Equity ETFs contributed 92.457 billion yuan, accounting for over 90% and becoming the core driving force for the inflow of funds into the ETF market. Additionally, the issuance of index funds was also very active, with over 50 index funds (including enhanced index funds and linked funds) planned for issuance this month [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Silver Market**: The price of silver has been rising continuously this year, with a cumulative increase of nearly 70%. In Yongxing County, Hunan Province, a major silver - producing area in China, most stores are out of stock. A silver enterprise executive said that investment silver bars are in short supply, with the price rising from over 8000 yuan to over 13000 yuan [2] - **Banking Industry**: After the National Day holiday, banks have entered the final stage of the annual battle. Recently, banking financial institutions have held Q4 work meetings to summarize the performance of the first three quarters and plan the key work for Q4 to ensure the achievement of annual performance targets. Some small and medium - sized banks have even launched next year's "good start" campaign two months earlier than usual [2] - **Real - Estate Policy**: The Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau of Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone has introduced multiple measures, including purchase subsidies, group - buying incentives, and enterprise rewards. From October 1 to December 31, 2025, families purchasing their first new commercial housing in the Zhuankou, Zhuanyang, Junshan, and Hannan areas of the development zone with commercial loans can enjoy loan interest subsidies of 1%, 1.5%, and 2% of the initial loan amount, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan, 30,000 yuan, and 40,000 yuan per household respectively [2]
年内新发基金数量超去年全年 股票型基金呈现爆发式增长
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-19 23:05
Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a strong recovery, with significant inflows into equity funds as of October 19, 2025 [1] - The total number of newly established funds this year has reached 1,163, surpassing the total of 1,135 for the entire year of 2024 [1] - Equity funds have seen explosive growth, with 661 new funds launched and a total issuance scale of 339.396 billion yuan, accounting for 37.45% of the total issuance scale, marking a nearly 15-year high since 2011 [1] Fund Market Performance - The number of new funds established in 2025 has already exceeded the previous year's total, indicating a robust recovery in the fund market [1] - The issuance scale of newly established equity funds is significant, reflecting strong investor confidence and market conditions [1] - The proportion of equity funds in the total issuance scale has reached a peak not seen in nearly 15 years, highlighting a shift in investor preferences towards equity investments [1]