内容提要 2025年11月，银行间外汇市场成交量整体下降，外汇市场日均成交量环比有所下行；美元指数震荡收贬，人民币汇率延续走升续创年内新高；境内外汇差由 负转正，市场整体买卖压力转向净卖汇；期权波动率持续走低，人民币汇率短期面临升值压力；长期限掉期点窄幅波动，市场买入压力逐步减弱；外币利率 市场美元流动性有所趋紧，境内外利差全月维持为负。 一、银行间外汇市场成交量整体下降，外汇市场日均成交量环比有所下行 11月银行间外汇市场日均交易量1914.58亿美元，同比下降2.57%，环比下降6.69%。其中人民币外汇市场日均交易量为1462.33亿美元，同比小幅下降 5.11%。外币对市场整体交投活跃，同比环比均显著上涨；外币利率市场受境外节假日影响交易量走低，环比下降超20%。 即期市场机构发起方先买后卖，日均买汇量减少。当月中上旬，即期市场机构交易需求基本维持买汇方向，发起方日均净买汇15.34亿美元，其中仅13日市 场机构结汇需求有所释放，当日净卖汇29.85亿美元。随着美元降息预期再度升温，下旬市场机构交易需求转为卖汇方向，日均净卖汇9.59亿美元。全月日均 净买汇7.86亿美元，较10月减少3.94亿美元。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In October, global financial markets experienced increased volatility due to multiple uncertainties, leading to heightened risk aversion among investors [1] - The average daily trading volume in China's interbank foreign exchange market reached $205.18 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 6.72% and a year-on-year slight decline of 0.30% [2][3] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB exchange rate rose to a new high for the year in early October but subsequently experienced fluctuations, with the lowest point reaching 7.1433 against the USD [2] - By the end of October, the onshore RMB exchange rate closed at 7.1135, appreciating by 0.07% compared to September [2] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for RMB in the foreign exchange market was $152.54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.72% but a month-on-month increase of 6.30% [2] - The foreign exchange market showed active trading in foreign currencies and foreign currency lending, with month-on-month increases exceeding 6% [2] Group 4: RMB Options Trading - RMB foreign exchange options trading remained stable in October, with an average daily transaction volume of $5.23 billion, marking a month-on-month decrease of 9.07% [3] - The implied volatility for RMB/USD options remained low, indicating stable market expectations for short-term RMB exchange rate movements [3] Group 5: Domestic and Offshore Exchange Rate Differences - The domestic foreign exchange differential gradually converged and turned positive by the end of October, with the average daily differential being -29 basis points [4] - As of October 20, the average daily net purchase of foreign exchange by institutions was $1.18 billion, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards net selling by the end of the month [4] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Behavior - The market's herd effect index in October was 61.89, slightly down from September, indicating a weaker herd effect compared to the historical average [5] Group 7: Swap Points and Interest Rate Differentials - Long-term swap points reached a nearly three-year high in October, driven by strong market buying pressure [6][7] - The one-year swap points at the end of October were -1287 basis points, an increase of 35 basis points from September, reflecting ongoing strong buying pressure in the swap market [7]