Group 1: Population Changes and Trends - The total population of China has been decreasing since its peak in 2021, with projections indicating it will fall below 1.4 billion by 2027 and below 1.3 billion by 2039 [2][7] - The number of newborns in 2024 is expected to be 9.54 million, lower than previous predictions, with further declines anticipated in subsequent years, potentially dropping below 9 million in 2025 and 8 million in 2028 [5][6] - China entered a deep aging society in 2021, with expectations to reach super-aged status by 2032, and projections suggest it will match Japan's aging level by 2048 [8][11] Group 2: Fertility Rates and Marriage Trends - Fertility rates among women aged 15-29 are higher than those in Japan and the UK, but rates for women aged 30-49 are significantly lower, indicating a need for policies that encourage childbirth among older women [2][16] - The declining marriage rate is attributed to gender imbalance and educational disparities, with a notable surplus of males in younger age groups and a higher number of educated women than men in higher education [25][30] - The average marriage age in China is lower than in several developed countries, yet the overall fertility rate remains low, suggesting that early marriage does not necessarily lead to higher birth rates [16][17] Group 3: Urbanization and Migration Trends - Urbanization rates are slowing, with the annual growth rate dropping from 1.4 percentage points to approximately 0.8 percentage points post-2021, while the urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024 [32][36] - The proportion of migrant workers moving across provinces is decreasing, with an increasing average age of migrant workers, indicating a trend towards local employment rather than migration [39][40] - Major urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experiencing significant net population increases, reflecting ongoing urbanization trends [46][51] Group 4: Economic Implications of Population Changes - The share of the secondary industry in GDP is declining, while the tertiary sector is expected to grow, with projections indicating that the tertiary sector will account for 63% of GDP by 2024 [57][59] - Employment in the secondary industry has been decreasing since 2012, with a notable drop in industrial employment numbers expected to continue [59][64] - The aging population and rising dependency ratios will increase demand for services, suggesting a need for policies that support the growth of the service sector [65][70]

以下文章来源于秦朔朋友圈 ，作者巫珩 秦朔朋友圈 . 秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于 经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。 一个遗憾。 作者 I 巫珩 来源 I 秦朔朋友圈 在香港，李嘉诚连续20年登顶亚洲首富。四大富豪之一的刘銮雄，以"股市狙击手"和"铜锣湾铺王"著称，成为香港商界的一大传奇人 物。 再远眺海外，立邦漆创始人吴清亮2 02 1年登上新加坡首富，被誉为"亚洲漆王"。正大集团创始人谢氏兄弟，连续多年霸占泰国首富， 业务小到作物种子和鱼肉供应，大到信息通讯、银行房产，几乎可以说涵盖了泰国人的一生。此外，加拿大、欧洲、澳洲等地的华人 首富桂冠也曾由潮汕人拿下。 正是这些风云人物，将潮汕帮推向了顶级商帮的地位。然而，当我们将目光转回到潮汕老家，却发现这片土地并没有想象中那么发 达，甚至最常听到一句评价，汕头是最落后的经济特区。 为什么反差会如此之大？我先来给你分享一个故事。 （ID：qspyq2015） 潮汕帮有多风光，可能潮汕就有多失 ...