复杂经济学
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如何看待高成长与经典价值?柏基投资与“价值投资3.0”︱重阳Talk Vol.22
重阳投资· 2025-12-29 07:33
一个世纪前,柏基投资在启蒙运动发源地苏格兰爱丁堡悄然创立,这家坚守成长型企业长期投资的机 构,凭借独特投研体系穿越一战、二战、互联网泡沫、全球金融危机等多轮周期,管理资产规模突破 2 万亿人民币,收益甚至超越巴菲特,成为资管界罕见的百年老店。 全文15135字,干货很多,但也很长。 欢迎下载"小宇宙"APP,找到"重阳Talk"收听音频版。 Part 1 柏基的独特基因:历史、地域与灵魂人物 柏基投资的独特之处 从早期布局亚马逊( Amazon )、特斯拉( Tesla ),到逆势投资腾讯( Tencent ),柏基精准 捕捉 "爆炸式赢家" 的投资传奇,背后是对技术经济范式变革的深刻洞察,以及不对称回报、收益递 增等理论支撑的成熟方法论。其灵魂人物安德森( James Anderson )秉持多元学科思维,将爱丁 堡的思辨精神融入企业文化,用情景假设估值替代传统市盈率指标,在风险与机遇的平衡中走出了一 条 "价值投资 3.0 " 之路。 本期节目,重阳TALK主理人舒泰峰与《柏基投资之道》作者李正、韩圣海两位老师进行了一场精彩对 话,一同拆解这家百年资管机构的成功密码。 舒泰峰 : 柏基投资的独特性体现在哪 ...
柏基投资穿越百年的基石
点拾投资· 2025-11-08 11:00
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy and strategies of Baillie Gifford, emphasizing its long-term global growth strategy that has led to superior returns compared to major indices and investment firms over the past two decades [2][16]. Investment Strategy and Performance - Baillie Gifford's flagship product, the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT), has achieved a total return of 13.64 times over nearly 20 years, with an annualized return rate of approximately 13.88%. In comparison, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices returned 3.85 times and 7.88 times, respectively, during the same period [2]. - The firm has successfully invested in major companies like Amazon, Tesla, and Nvidia, often being an early investor and holding these stocks for extended periods, which has contributed to its reputation as a "super growth stock catcher" [1][2]. Historical Context and Evolution - Baillie Gifford has a history of over 110 years, evolving from a law firm to a prominent investment management firm, adapting its investment focus from convertible bonds to global equity investments and now to a long-term global growth strategy [14][15]. - The firm has consistently leveraged technological revolutions, such as the automotive and information technology revolutions, to identify and capitalize on investment opportunities [6][14]. Investment Philosophy - The investment logic of Baillie Gifford is rooted in understanding technological evolution and emerging markets, focusing on first principles to identify long-term trends and patterns in economic, social, and technological changes [6][7]. - The firm emphasizes the importance of patience in capital investment, maintaining a low turnover rate of 10%-20%, which allows for an average holding period of 5-10 years for its investments [10][11]. Organizational Consistency - Baillie Gifford's success is attributed to the organizational consistency in its investment philosophy, culture, and structure, which supports the execution of its long-term growth strategy [11][12]. - The firm fosters a collaborative environment with academic institutions and thought leaders, enhancing its knowledge network and investment insights [8]. Lessons for Other Markets - The article suggests that Baillie Gifford's investment approach can serve as a model for Chinese asset management firms, particularly in fostering long-term relationships with technology companies and supporting their growth through patient capital [15][16].
赠书|近20年回报跑赢伯克希尔,看柏基投资如何精准押注科技股
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-08 09:34
Core Insights - The article highlights the evolution and success of Baillie Gifford, a prominent investment firm established in 1908, which has adapted its investment strategies over more than a century to capture growth opportunities in various markets [2][4][11]. Investment Strategy - Baillie Gifford's primary investment strategy, the Long Term Global Growth strategy, has yielded exceptional returns, with its flagship product, the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT), achieving a total return of 13.64 times from 2004 to 2024, translating to an annualized return of approximately 13.88% [6]. - In comparison, the S&P 500 index had a total return of 3.85 times and an annualized return of 6.98% during the same period, while the Nasdaq index returned about 7.88 times with an annualized return of 10.87% [6]. Historical Performance - Over the past 20 years, Baillie Gifford has invested in high-growth companies such as Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, ASML, Alibaba, and ByteDance, positioning itself as an early investor and long-term supporter of these firms [3][4]. - The firm is recognized for its patience in holding investments, with an annual turnover rate of 10-20%, indicating an average holding period of 5-10 years for its investments [11]. Investment Philosophy - Baillie Gifford emphasizes a long-term perspective, focusing on understanding technological evolution and emerging markets, which has been a key factor in its investment success [11][14]. - The firm’s approach is characterized by a systematic alignment of its investment philosophy, organizational structure, and incentive mechanisms, which collectively support its long-term growth strategy [11][14]. Adaptation and Evolution - Baillie Gifford has demonstrated an ability to evolve over its 110-year history, transitioning from convertible bond investments to a focus on global equity investments and long-term growth strategies [2][11]. - The firm’s investment logic is grounded in complex economics, viewing economic and market changes through a long-term, evolutionary lens [11][12]. Relevance to Other Markets - The investment philosophy of Baillie Gifford offers significant insights for Chinese counterparts, particularly in navigating the current technological revolution and establishing sustainable partnerships with investee companies [15][14].