第一性原理
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比亚迪孙华军:反超特斯拉,藏着死磕磷酸铁锂的20年
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2026-01-09 15:00
21世纪经济报道记者 焦文娟 2026年第一个工作日,全球汽车行业的头条属于比亚迪(002594),在刚刚过去的一年,比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量首次超越特斯拉,登顶全球,其2025年纯 电汽车销量达到225.67万辆,同比增长27.86%。 从2019年被特斯拉反超,到2025年重夺王座,比亚迪用了六年。但在长跑背后,故事的起点始于23年前的一场技术路线的漫长跋涉。 登顶的基石,正是一种曾被广泛认为不适合电动汽车的电池材料——磷酸铁锂(LFP)。它曾被主流电动车行业视为一条"笨路",能量密度是硬伤。如今, 它因比亚迪的刀片电池而重生,成为全球汽车行业无法绕过的技术路线。 2002年,比亚迪董事长王传福拍板了磷酸铁锂方向。比亚迪电池事业群CTO孙华军告诉《21汽车·一见Auto》:"王传福总始终在一线参与。"2000年,孙华 军从复旦大学化学系毕业后加入比亚迪,见证了比亚迪动力电池业务的成长。 孙华军说,当时行业主流路线有三条:手机电池采用的、能量密度高的钴酸锂;安全性较好的锰酸锂;以及能量密度最低、但热稳定性最好的磷酸铁锂。 当时,以松下、索尼为代表的全球头部电池企业,其技术重心集中在消费电子领域成熟的钴酸锂路线 ...
魏建军泼冷水:中国只有高端“货”,还没有高端“牌”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 01:28
Core Viewpoint - The founder and chairman of Great Wall Motors, Wei Jianjun, emphasizes that China lacks true high-end automotive brands, including his own, and that high-end does not equate to high price or flashy technology [2][3]. Group 1: High-End Brand Definition - Wei Jianjun argues that many Chinese automotive brands claiming to be high-end are merely high-end products, lacking the essential brand value and integrity [3][4]. - He believes that a true high-end brand must establish a clear value proposition in the minds of consumers, built on "correct value propositions" and "unwavering integrity" [4]. Group 2: Safety and Luxury - The emphasis on "safety is the greatest luxury" reflects Wei's fundamental defense of luxury, addressing the frequent software issues in modern vehicles and advocating for accountability [4]. - This approach contrasts with other manufacturers that engage in public relations games during crises, positioning Great Wall's brand value as rooted in honesty and reliability [4]. Group 3: Profit Model Reconstruction - Great Wall Motors is adopting a core strategy of "one vehicle, multiple powertrains, multiple categories, and multiple forms," aiming to reconstruct the profit model through a platform-based approach [5]. - The company has a comprehensive range of engine options, which allows for cost reduction in development, manufacturing, and logistics, ultimately enhancing market competitiveness [5][6]. Group 4: Global Market Adaptation - The strategy includes adapting to different global energy structures and driving habits, allowing for greater flexibility in international markets [6]. - Wei Jianjun notes that Great Wall has the highest average selling price among Chinese automakers, but clarifies that this is due to product value rather than brand value [6]. Group 5: Leadership Challenges - The frequent changes in CEO positions at Great Wall Motors are attributed to the immense pressure associated with the role, which requires a comprehensive skill set [7][8]. - Wei Jianjun acknowledges the challenges faced by leaders in the highly competitive Chinese automotive market, where traditional experiences may not apply [7]. Group 6: Brand Evolution and Communication - The frequent leadership changes reflect ongoing trials and adjustments in Great Wall's journey toward high-end branding, indicating a shift towards direct consumer engagement [8]. - Wei Jianjun's self-reflection on his leadership capabilities highlights the need for adaptability in the evolving automotive landscape [8]. Group 7: Long-Term Vision for High-End Branding - The nine-year journey of Great Wall Motors is characterized by a pursuit of confidence and a commitment to establishing a foothold in the international market [9]. - The launch of the new Blue Mountain Intelligent Advanced Edition signifies a step towards achieving true high-end brand status, emphasizing the importance of cost control and quality in building brand reputation [9].
用第一性原理解锁长期投资:柏基战胜纳斯达克的秘诀 | 螺丝钉带你读书
银行螺丝钉· 2026-01-03 14:08
大家好,我是银行螺丝钉,欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期,为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故事,比如《三十几岁,财务自由》、《如何读一本 书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师:股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理芒格和指数基金之父约翰博格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的理 念。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集: 《 世界读书日,螺丝钉送你121本私藏经典好书 》 往期回顾: 第一篇:《 跑赢纳斯达克的柏基,是如何做成长股投资的? 》 柏基的成长风格投资 最近的螺丝钉带你读书,咱们介绍的,是今年出来的一本投资好书《柏基投资之道》。 柏基是比较少有的,在成长风格中做的比较好的机构。 柏基的成长风格投资,立足于对未来趋势的判断。 以大家熟悉的指数基金为例。 十多年前,螺丝钉做指数基金估值和定投。 当时指数基金的规模并不大,全国的指数基金,活跃投资者数量只有百万级别,指数基金总规模只有几千亿。 一些投资者认为,指数基金适合欧美等成熟市场,A股有效性低,在A股指数基金不一定能发展起来。 这离不开第一性原理。 第一性原理:以指数基金为例 了解 ...
如何看待高成长与经典价值?柏基投资与“价值投资3.0”︱重阳Talk Vol.22
重阳投资· 2025-12-29 07:33
一个世纪前,柏基投资在启蒙运动发源地苏格兰爱丁堡悄然创立,这家坚守成长型企业长期投资的机 构,凭借独特投研体系穿越一战、二战、互联网泡沫、全球金融危机等多轮周期,管理资产规模突破 2 万亿人民币,收益甚至超越巴菲特,成为资管界罕见的百年老店。 全文15135字,干货很多,但也很长。 欢迎下载"小宇宙"APP,找到"重阳Talk"收听音频版。 Part 1 柏基的独特基因:历史、地域与灵魂人物 柏基投资的独特之处 从早期布局亚马逊( Amazon )、特斯拉( Tesla ),到逆势投资腾讯( Tencent ),柏基精准 捕捉 "爆炸式赢家" 的投资传奇,背后是对技术经济范式变革的深刻洞察,以及不对称回报、收益递 增等理论支撑的成熟方法论。其灵魂人物安德森( James Anderson )秉持多元学科思维,将爱丁 堡的思辨精神融入企业文化,用情景假设估值替代传统市盈率指标,在风险与机遇的平衡中走出了一 条 "价值投资 3.0 " 之路。 本期节目,重阳TALK主理人舒泰峰与《柏基投资之道》作者李正、韩圣海两位老师进行了一场精彩对 话,一同拆解这家百年资管机构的成功密码。 舒泰峰 : 柏基投资的独特性体现在哪 ...
金翼基金万成水:锚定“颠覆性创新” 做中国资本出海“导航员”
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-12-29 00:33
从告别三尺讲台的青衫少年,到拥有20多年境内外证券市场投资经验的资深人士。万成水的职业轨迹, 与中国资本市场的开放历程紧密交织。 作为金翼基金与香港全球价值链投资的创始人,万成水是国内较早系统性开展跨境投资的基金管理人之 一。他的经历,折射出中国资产管理行业从"引进来"到"走出去"的时代演进。在这一过程中,他带领团 队逐步建立起一套以"颠覆性创新"为研判核心、以相对集中且长期持有为纪律的投资方法论。 2010年起,万成水带领几位香港金融界的投资专家共同创业,初期专注于港股市场投资。"随着团队对 全球科技产业链的研究不断深入,我们的投资逐渐聚焦到美股科技板块。"万成水表示,"我们逐渐形成 了独特定位——致力于成为服务于中国超高净值人士的全球科技股投资专家。" 2014年,全球价值链投资有限公司正式成立。2015年,公司发行了香港证监会9号牌下的第一只美元基 金产品——金翼环球趋势基金(开放型)。该基金成立十年以来,净值增长率大幅跑赢了道琼斯指数、 标普500指数、纳斯达克指数、香港恒生指数以及沪深300指数等对标指数。 当下,对中国投资者而言,"走出去"已不仅是把资金搬到另一个市场,更像是一场方法论的迁徙:如何 ...
金翼基金万成水: 锚定“颠覆性创新” 做中国资本出海“导航员”
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-12-28 21:27
□本报记者王雪青 万成水,金翼私募基金管理(珠海横琴)有限公司执行董事、基金经理。曾任职于香港第一上海金融集 团、国信证券股份有限公司,拥有20多年境内外证券市场投资经验。 从告别三尺讲台的青衫少年,到拥有20多年境内外证券市场投资经验的资深人士。万成水的职业轨迹, 与中国资本市场的开放历程紧密交织。 作为金翼基金与香港全球价值链投资的创始人,万成水是国内较早系统性开展跨境投资的基金管理人之 一。他的经历,折射出中国资产管理行业从"引进来"到"走出去"的时代演进。在这一过程中,他带领团 队逐步建立起一套以"颠覆性创新"为研判核心、以相对集中且长期持有为纪律的投资方法论。 当下,对中国投资者而言,"走出去"已不仅是把资金搬到另一个市场,更像是一场方法论的迁徙:如何 在不同市场制度、不同风险结构与不同产业周期里,重新建立研究框架、风控纪律与收益预期。 万成水近日接受了中国证券报记者专访,分享了他对投资成长的感悟、对跨境投资的理解、以及对未来 的展望。他的思考,或能为更多正走向全球市场的中国资本,提供一份来自实践者的参考。 因势而动的创业之路 "我最初的职业是家乡浙江的一名中学教师,日子平静而有规律。"万成水回忆。 ...
投资人眼中的「伟大生意」
投资界· 2025-12-25 08:29
以下文章来源于清科沙丘投研院 ,作者丁宝玉 清科沙丘投研院 . 沙丘投研院——中国投资界的黄埔军校,致力于培育新一代杰出企投家,塑造创投高端人才。我们不仅 分享体系化理论,积极实战,更构筑起"永不毕业"的创投社群,汇聚校友力量,在深度链接与互动中激 发合作,在持续共创与联投中携手向上,一同斩获更大成就。 不同行业,各有其独树一帜的发展脉络与特点。针对该行业的投资策略,也需要随之予以调整。企业 欲在商业世界的激烈角逐中脱颖而出,就必须具备独特的竞争优势,而投资的目标,则是找到这 些"别具一格"的企业。 在沙丘投研院黄埔15期课堂上, 同创伟业管理合伙人 丁宝玉导师 结合过往二十余年的投资经验成 果,分享道:一项投资的成功与否取决于三个关键因素—— 赛道、赛车、赛手 ,并强调 "制定投资 策略的前提,是学会思考底层逻辑" 。其中蕴藏的识人断事之道,往往也是指导经营与投资的关键心 法。 投资决策正确,结果也往往正确吗?什么才是投资人眼中伟大的生意?长期主义的 " 价值投资 " 究竟 要多长?怎样的创始人更容易获得资本青睐? …… 为回答这些问题,本文谨整理摘录 @同创伟业管 理合伙人、沙丘投研院导师 丁宝玉 课堂分 ...
混沌内部一个“背脊发凉”的共识:2026,“归纳法”失效了!
混沌学园· 2025-12-23 11:57
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a new operational framework in business as traditional methods based on induction have become ineffective in the face of rapid changes driven by AI and market dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Survival Strategies - The first section focuses on practical survival strategies in a buyer's market, addressing concerns about selling and high traffic costs [6][7]. - The core logic is to move away from traffic anxiety and return to the fundamental principles of product and brand [7]. - Key courses include strategies for navigating market cycles, creating standout products, and building sustainable brands [8][9][10][12]. Group 2: Seeking Incremental Growth - The second section discusses finding new growth opportunities through hard technology and globalization [14]. - The focus is on looking beyond domestic competition to identify new spaces and time-based advantages [14]. - Courses cover brand building, understanding user needs, and constructing viable business systems [13][15][16]. Group 3: Individual Evolution - The third section highlights the importance of personal and organizational stability in uncertain times [17][18]. - It emphasizes that as external chaos increases, internal steadiness becomes crucial [18]. - Courses aim to enhance personal growth and organizational cohesion to withstand market pressures [19][20]. Group 4: Fundamental Restructuring - The final section addresses the fundamental restructuring required in the AI era, positioning it as the new infrastructure for the future [21][22]. - The core logic is to avoid applying outdated internet thinking to new AI technologies [23]. - Courses focus on redefining business strategies, product innovation, and organizational adaptation to leverage AI effectively [24][26][27].
账号与身份防线全面失守:黑灰产 Agent 化攻击下,如何用“第一性原理”重建防线?
AI前线· 2025-12-23 09:00
Core Insights - The article highlights the alarming rise of AI-driven cyberattacks, with a report from Anthropic indicating that AI has automated 90% of the hacking process, requiring minimal human intervention [1][3] - The evolution of black and gray market activities is marked by a significant shift towards AI agents, which enhances the efficiency and effectiveness of cybercriminal operations [4][5] Group 1: AI in Cybersecurity - Anthropic's report reveals that AI's capabilities in executing complex attacks have reached unprecedented levels, marking a turning point in cybersecurity [1][3] - The use of AI agents allows for autonomous operations with minimal human oversight, fundamentally changing the nature of digital warfare [4][5] Group 2: Evolution of Black and Gray Markets - The black market has transitioned from mechanical scripts to intelligent agents capable of generating realistic content, significantly lowering the barriers to entry for cybercriminals [5][6] - AI has enabled the mass production of high-quality fake accounts, which can pass Turing tests, thus complicating traditional risk control measures [5][6] Group 3: Defense Mechanisms - To counter the sophisticated AI-driven attacks, defense strategies must evolve to incorporate principles from the physical world and community behavior [9][10] - The "anti-fraud three laws" proposed by industry experts emphasize the importance of diversity, information consistency, and community detection in identifying fraudulent activities [9][10] Group 4: Challenges in AI Models - The introduction of "uncertainty labels" in AI models aims to address the issue of misjudgment caused by ambiguous samples, significantly improving accuracy rates [11][12] - Continuous feedback mechanisms are essential for enhancing the model's ability to recognize ambiguous cases, thereby reducing error rates [13] Group 5: New Paradigms in Risk Control - The traditional "machine review + human review" model is becoming obsolete, leading to the emergence of a new paradigm centered around AI-driven agents [16][17] - This new approach integrates AI machine review, agent-based review, and expert decision-making to enhance the assessment of complex risks [17][18]
美团龙珠合伙人王新宇:技术路线不是辩论出来的,是在不断试错中论证出来的
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-12-21 02:14
Core Insights - The conference "2026 Annual Dialogue and Global Wealth Management Forum" focuses on the theme "China's Determination in Changing Circumstances" and highlights the advancements in embodied intelligence as a means to liberate productivity and improve living standards [1][3] Group 1: Industry Trends - The embodied intelligence sector is rapidly evolving, transitioning from experimental phases to real-world applications in various settings such as hotels and factories [3] - There is a competitive dynamic between China and the U.S. in the field of embodied intelligence, with China aiming to lead rather than follow in technological advancements [5] - Concerns about potential market bubbles and overvaluation in the embodied intelligence sector have been raised, prompting discussions on regulatory measures [4][6] Group 2: Investment Perspectives - Investment in embodied intelligence is driven by the belief in human capital, with varying opinions on the timelines for technological advancements [2][9] - The importance of storytelling and imagination in technology development is emphasized, as successful companies often need to present compelling narratives to attract investment [7][8] - The investment strategy focuses on identifying companies that genuinely contribute to embodied intelligence rather than those merely adopting trendy labels [6][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The development of embodied intelligence is viewed as a long-term journey, requiring patience and sustained investment in talent and resources [5][10] - The industry is expected to see significant advancements over the next decade, with the potential for China to emerge as a leader in various technological fields, including embodied intelligence [5][10]