Group 1 - The coal industry maintains stable supply and demand, with seasonal demand increase driven by summer electricity peak, leading to a continued rise in port coal prices [1] - Current average daily iron and steel production remains high, indicating resilient downstream demand, while coal inventories at Qinhuangdao and Bohai Rim ports are at high levels compared to the same period [1] - Recovery in overseas energy prices supports domestic coal prices, combined with "anti-involution" policy rectifications, leading to optimistic medium to long-term industry expectations [1] Group 2 - The China Electricity Council forecasts a 5%-6% year-on-year growth in total electricity consumption by 2025, with overall power supply and demand expected to be balanced, solidifying coal's position as a fundamental energy source [1] - Current thermal coal prices are showing a seasonal upward trend [1] - The coal ETF tracks the China Securities Coal Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the coal industry, covering both upstream and downstream enterprises with high industry concentration and representativeness [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Port coal inventories are declining, and thermal coal prices have stopped falling. As of May 30, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week but up 18.83% year-on-year. The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The approaching summer peak electricity demand is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week. The average price for mixed thermal coal at Yulin was 475 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week. The FOB price for thermal coal at Newcastle, Australia, was 67 USD/ton, down 2.14% [2]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 61.6%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.4185 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week but up 2.6% year-on-year [3]. Inventory Tracking - As of May 30, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 6.75 million tons, down 7.53% week-on-week and up 42.41% year-on-year. The Bohai Rim port coal inventory was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week and up 18.83% year-on-year. The inventory levels at independent coking plants and sample steel mills are currently at low levels [4][53]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer is likely to support a rebound in coal prices. It recommends companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts and stable profitability, specifically China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with China Shenhua's EPS forecast for 2025 at 2.5 CNY and a PE ratio of 16. The investment rating for China Shenhua is "Accumulate" [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - Port coal inventories are declining, and thermal coal prices have stopped falling. As of May 30, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week but up 18.83% year-on-year. The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The approaching summer peak electricity demand is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week. The average price for mixed thermal coal at the pit in Yulin, Shaanxi, was 475 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Inventory Tracking - As of May 30, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao port were 6.75 million tons, down 7.53% week-on-week and up 42.41% year-on-year. The Bohai Rim port coal inventory was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week and up 18.83% year-on-year, indicating a high level for the same period [4][53]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 61.6%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year, with an average daily pig iron output of 2.4185 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week but up 2.6% year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer is likely to support a rebound in coal prices. It recommends companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The pace of coal price decline is slowing, with attention on the seasonal demand increase due to the upcoming summer electricity peak [1][4]. - As of May 22, coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 32.106 million tons, down 1.31% week-on-week but up 25.22% year-on-year, indicating a high level but a declining trend [1][4]. - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8 RMB/ton (-1.23%) compared to the previous week, with the decline rate less than the previous week [2][4]. - The summer electricity peak is approaching, which is expected to seasonally boost coal demand and support a rebound in coal prices [4]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 RMB/ton, down 8 RMB/ton (-1.23%) for the week of May 19-23 [2]. - The average price of mixed thermal coal at Yulin, Shaanxi was 475 RMB/ton, down 16 RMB/ton (-3.26%) [2]. Inventory Levels - As of May 22, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.48 million tons, down 1.71% week-on-week but up 44.40% year-on-year [4]. - The coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports was 32.106 million tons, down 1.31% week-on-week but up 25.22% year-on-year [4]. Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.4%, up 0.3 percentage points week-on-week but down 6.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 91.32%, down 0.44 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.78 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability, specifically China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are accelerating downward, with a focus on the demand boost during the summer electricity peak [1][4]. - As of May 16, coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim reached 32.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.57% week-on-week but an increase of 33.72% year-on-year, indicating the highest level for the same period [1][4]. - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port (5500 kcal weekly average) was 619 RMB/ton, down 19 RMB/ton (-3.05%) week-on-week [2][4]. - The summer electricity peak is approaching, and thermal coal demand is expected to seasonally rebound, necessitating attention to the extent of demand increase during the peak season [1]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 619 RMB/ton, down 19 RMB/ton (-3.05%) week-on-week [2]. - The average price of thermal mixed coal at Yulin, Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 491 RMB/ton, also down 19 RMB/ton (-3.73%) [2]. Inventory Levels - As of May 16, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.6 million tons, up 0.93% week-on-week and up 48.15% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period [4]. - The inventory at Bohai Rim ports was 32.53 million tons, down 1.57% week-on-week but up 33.72% year-on-year [4]. Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 62.1%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week and down 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 91.76%, down 0.33 percentage points week-on-week but up 3.19 percentage points year-on-year, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.447 million tons, down 0.4% week-on-week but up 3.3% year-on-year [3]. Investment Recommendations - Due to weak demand and continuous accumulation of port inventory leading to a decline in coal prices, the report suggests a defensive approach to the current sector, recommending companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid decline in coal prices and emphasizes the upcoming summer electricity peak demand, which is expected to drive coal demand upward [3][4]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - As of May 16, the coal inventory at the Qinhuangdao port was 7.6 million tons, a 0.93% increase week-on-week and a 48.15% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period [6]. - The coal inventory in the Bohai Rim ports stood at 32.53 million tons, a 1.57% decrease week-on-week but a 33.72% increase year-on-year, also at a record high for this time of year [6]. - The average closing price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (5500 kcal) was 619 yuan/ton for the week of May 11-16, down 19 yuan/ton (-3.05%) from the previous week [4]. Group 2: Seasonal Demand and Production - The summer electricity peak is approaching, which is expected to seasonally increase coal demand, necessitating attention to the extent of the demand surge during the peak season [3]. - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants (approximately 50% of national washing capacity) was 62.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points week-on-week and a 5.8 percentage points decrease year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [5]. - The average temperature in 28 major cities was 26.99°C, which is at the median for the same period [5]. Group 3: Other Commodity Prices - The average price of thermal mixed coal at the Yulin pit (5800 kcal) was 491 yuan/ton for the week, down 19 yuan/ton (-3.73%) [4]. - The FOB price for thermal coal at Newcastle, Australia (5500 kcal) was $69/ton, a 0.71% decrease [4]. - The settlement price for European natural gas futures (DUTCH TTF) was €35/MWh, an increase of 2.60% [4]. - The Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $65.41/barrel, up 2.35% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are accelerating downward, with a focus on the demand boost during the summer electricity peak [1] - High coal inventory levels are contributing to the price decline, and a recovery in demand is necessary for price stabilization [4] - The report suggests a defensive approach to the current sector, recommending companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of May 16, the inventory of coal at ports in the Bohai Rim is 32.53 million tons, down 1.57% week-on-week but up 33.72% year-on-year, at a record high for the same period [1][4] - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port (5500 kcal weekly average) is 619 RMB/ton, down 19 RMB/ton (-3.05%) week-on-week [2][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants is 62.1%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week and down 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [3] - The average daily pig iron output is 2.447 million tons, down 0.4% week-on-week but up 3.3% year-on-year [3] Key Company Financials - China Shenhua: EPS forecast for 2025 is 2.5 RMB, with a PE ratio of 16 [5] - China Coal Energy: EPS forecast for 2025 is 1.31 RMB, with a PE ratio of 8 [5] - Shanxi Coking Coal: EPS forecast for 2025 is 0.37 RMB, with a PE ratio of 17 [5] Inventory Tracking - The coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port is 7.6 million tons, up 0.93% week-on-week and up 48.15% year-on-year [4] - The independent coking plant's coking coal inventory is 7.5256 million tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [4]