（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 煤炭ETF（515220）跟踪的是中证煤炭指数（399998），该指数聚焦于煤炭开采及加工领域，精选行业 内代表性上市公司证券作为指数样本，并采用等权重分配策略，确保成分股间权重均衡，以有效分散风 险。该指数动态反映煤炭行业的整体表现，旨在体现相关上市公司证券的综合走势。 良性供给助节后煤价乐观，2月27日，煤炭板块大涨，煤炭ETF（515220）涨超3%。 华源证券指出，煤炭行业节前去库超预期，良性供给助节后煤价乐观。国内供给方面，元旦至春节前的 煤矿日均开工率处于近三年较低位。进口供给方面，截至2026年2月，进口煤海运发运量维持4年较低 位。需求方面，1月寒潮致需求较好，节前出现少有主动补库迹象。库存方面，全社会库存改善，港口 库存显著回落并处于近三年较低位。国际能源价格方面，春节期间布伦特原油期货突破70美元/桶，地 缘局势紧张推动能源供给价格上行，在全球能源联动的关系下，煤价节后有望获得更强支撑。 ...

煤炭ETF（515220）业绩比较基准为中证煤炭指数收益率，管理人为国泰基金管理有限公司，基金经理 为吴中昊，成立（2020-01-20）以来回报为173.17%，近一个月回报为6.21%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月27日，截止午间收盘，煤炭ETF（515220）涨1.45%，报1.186元，成交额3.12亿元。煤炭ETF （515220）重仓股方面，中国神华截止午盘涨0.29%，陕西煤业涨0.60%，兖矿能源涨1.53%，中煤能源 涨3.29%，山西焦煤涨1.12%，华阳股份涨1.55%，美锦能源涨2.99%，潞安环能涨2.61%，淮北矿业涨 0.52%，平煤股份涨0.92%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

2月27日，受海外印尼煤矿扰动等影响，煤炭ETF（515220）盘中大涨超3%。 当前煤炭板块正站在多重逻辑共振的拐点上。从供给端看，海外扰动成为关键变量——印尼作为全球最大动力煤出口国，其出口审批与产量政策变化持续发 酵，国际煤价应声上涨，进口煤性价比快速下降，内贸煤需求边际改善。从国内基本面看，春节前主产区供给阶段性收缩，民营矿井停产放假，国有矿井检 修增多，产量短期回落；港口库存持续下降，全国主要港口库存处于同比低位区间，在电厂日耗季节性回落背景下库存仍去化，显示供给端收缩效应明显。 从需求端看，节后上下游复工复产推进，铁水产量稳步增长，非电领域需求具备韧性。在海外供给扰动、国内供给约束、库存低位、需求边际改善的四重共 振下，煤炭板块的上涨弹性值得期待。 【海外扰动：印尼政策变化成为核心催化剂】 本轮煤炭行情的核心催化来自海外供给端。印尼作为全球最大动力煤出口国，其出口审批与产量政策变化持续发酵，国际煤价应声上涨，进口煤性价比快速 下降，内贸煤需求边际改善。 印尼供给收缩超预期。国海证券指出，受RKAB审批进度慢及斋月影响，印尼煤炭供应偏紧，2026年生产配额大幅缩减，矿商暂停现货出口。这一减产落地 超 ...

海外供给扰动叠加库存低位，煤炭板块迎来结构性修复窗口，煤炭ETF（515220）盘中涨超3.2%。 节后资金风格再度向资源方向回流，煤炭板块表现活跃。煤炭ETF（515220）盘中上涨超3.2%，成交额 明显放大，量价同步走强。资金层面看，煤炭板块在高股息与周期弹性双重属性驱动下重新获得增量关 注。在海外供给不确定性加剧的背景下，市场对煤炭价格中枢上修预期增强，板块风险偏好明显修复。 从产业格局看，行业集中度持续提升，龙头企业盈利稳定性强化。煤炭行业已由高速扩张阶段进入高质 量发展阶段，在供给受限的结构下，盈利中枢稳定性提升。 高股息底仓+海外弹性进攻，关注煤炭ETF（515220） 当前煤炭板块具备双重逻辑支撑。 本轮煤炭行情的核心催化来自海外供给端。印尼作为全球最大的动力煤出口国，其出口审批与产量政策 对全球煤炭贸易格局影响显著。近期海外市场供给扰动预期升温，国际煤价持续上行，进口煤性价比快 速下降，内贸煤需求边际改善。 同时，海外能源价格整体处于震荡上行区间。油价受地缘政治影响走强，欧洲煤炭价格亦出现回升。在 能源价格联动效应下，市场对动力煤价格形成上行预期。报告指出，今年煤炭市场的核心关注点在海 外， ...

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) experienced a decline of 1.12%, closing at 1.151 yuan with a trading volume of 303 million yuan [1] - Major holdings in the coal ETF showed mixed performance, with China Shenhua down 2.42%, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 2.44%, and Yanzhou Coal Mining down 0.80%, while Shanxi Coking Coal increased by 0.28% [1] - The coal ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Coal Index return, managed by Guotai Asset Management, with a return of 172.28% since its inception on January 20, 2020, and a return of 6.49% over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the coal ETF (515220) rising over 0.6% as of February 12 [1] - Northeast Securities highlights the establishment of policy guidance for the intelligent transformation of coal mines, emphasizing that large-scale and intelligent coal mines are key measures for capacity optimization [1] - The intelligentization of coal mines involves integrating modern technology with coal development, creating a smart system characterized by comprehensive perception, real-time interconnection, analytical decision-making, autonomous learning, dynamic forecasting, and collaborative control [1] Group 2 - The coal mine intelligentization market in China is projected to reach 586.8 billion yuan by 2024, with expectations to grow to approximately 1.41 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] - Currently, the penetration rate of intelligentization in coal mines is about 21.09%, with most existing intelligent coal mines at a primary stage of development [1] - Since 2016, supply-side reforms have gradually eliminated outdated production capacity, leading to a significant decrease in the number of coal mines and a notable increase in average output per mine [1] Group 3 - Capital expenditures of coal enterprises are significantly positively correlated with previous profits, and the sustained high profitability in recent years is expected to support high levels of capital expenditure, ensuring orders related to intelligentization [1] - Coal remains a dominant energy source in China, serving as a pillar of the country's energy system [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies primarily engaged in coal mining, processing, and related equipment manufacturing, covering areas such as thermal coal and coking coal to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight increase followed by a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 4131.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.08% [1] - Overall market trading volume was below 2 trillion yuan, decreasing by over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - More than 3200 stocks in the market declined, indicating a weak risk appetite [1] Sector Performance - The cyclical sectors showed strong performance, with non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil and gas leading the gains [1] - The Mining ETF (561330) rose by 2.93%, the Gold Stocks ETF (517400) increased by 2.62%, and the Chemical ETF (516220) gained 2.20% [1] - The coal sector also performed well, with the Coal ETF rising by 1.40%, supported by short-term supply-demand catalysts and long-term valuation support due to weakening dollar credit [2] Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous sector's long-term outlook remains positive, driven by resource nationalism and supply-demand conflicts, with expectations for upward elasticity after recent volatility [1] - Investors are advised to focus on the only coal ETF (515220) for potential investment opportunities [2] - The film sector faced adjustments, with the Film ETF (516620) declining by 5.80%, attributed to rapid gains and potential overextension in expectations [2] - The bond market has been recovering, with the 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) rising by 0.87% over the past 20 days, driven by unexpected bank deposits and allocation strength [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Indonesia's RKAB has tightened preliminary reviews, leading some miners to suspend coal exports and market transactions while awaiting the latest government approval results [1] - The supply disruption is expected to have a greater impact on thermal coal than on coking coal, as Indonesian coal is primarily low-calorie coal extracted through open-pit mining [1] - In the short term, this supply disruption is likely to drive a rebound in domestic thermal coal spot prices, showing a significant short-term boost [1] Group 2 - In the annual dimension, under different assumptions, China's imports of Indonesian coal may decline by 24.11 to 50.89 million tons [1] - Future supply-side factors to monitor include the resumption of work in major production areas after the Spring Festival, as well as changes in Indonesian miners' export capacity and willingness [1] - The coal ETF (515220) has exceeded 9 billion yuan, tracking the CSI Coal Index (399998), with the coal sector showing a high dividend yield; as of the end of 2025, the tracked index's dividend yield over the past 12 months is over 6%, highlighting its allocation value in the context of declining risk-free interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive impact of supply-side reforms on coal supply and demand, leading to a rise in the coal ETF (515220) by over 0.8% [1] - Northeast Securities points out that the establishment of goals for intelligent transformation in coal mines is a key measure for optimizing capacity, with a focus on large-scale and intelligent mining [1] - Intelligent mining integrates modern technologies such as artificial intelligence and industrial IoT with coal development, creating smart systems that enhance safety and efficiency [1] Group 2 - The market size for intelligent mining is projected to reach 586.8 billion yuan by 2024, with expectations to grow to approximately 1.41 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] - By 2024, it is anticipated that 907 intelligent mining faces will be established in China, with an intelligent penetration rate of about 21.09%, most of which are still in the initial stages [1] - Since the supply-side reform in 2016, outdated production capacity has been gradually eliminated, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of coal mines and a notable increase in average output per mine [1] Group 3 - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining and processing to reflect the overall performance of coal-related securities [1] - The index exhibits a high industry concentration while also demonstrating certain diversification characteristics [1]

Market Overview - The spring market has experienced a pause with significant corrections in gold and silver prices, leading to a wide fluctuation in global markets. However, the market quickly stabilized after the initial downturn, with COMEX gold recovering to 5000 points and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing around 4100 points [1][13]. - Affected by overseas uncertainties, A-shares saw a substantial adjustment but rebounded on February 3, demonstrating strong market resilience [2][13]. Long-term Opportunities - The new productive forces are becoming the engine for economic growth, with an increasing share of "new economy" stocks in the market. AI is expected to see application results this year, alongside sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and energy storage entering a favorable cycle [3][14]. - A-shares are attractive in terms of valuation compared to major global markets, with low foreign capital positions and the establishment of mechanisms for long-term domestic funds entering the market. The trend of "deposit migration" among residents may continue in a low-interest-rate environment [3][14][15]. - Policy emphasis on expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption is expected to translate into systematic improvements in corporate profitability. Following the Spring Festival, policy catalysts are anticipated to accelerate, potentially leading to better index performance post-holiday [15]. Sector Focus - The market is expected to focus on cyclical price increases, with sectors like oil and petrochemicals, food and beverage, AI, and semiconductors continuing to see positive trends. The construction materials sector may benefit from major projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan [15]. - Investors are encouraged to consider broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) for exposure to industry leaders, as well as a tech + dividend "barbell" strategy as a satellite approach [4][15]. Commodity Market Insights - The gold market has faced its largest drawdown in 40 years but has quickly rebounded, indicating that the bull market is likely not over yet. Historical context suggests that significant narrative shifts are required to signal the end of a bull market [5][16]. - From a macro perspective, a super cycle in commodities is anticipated this year, with fundamental factors driving long-term trends. The black and chemical sectors, currently at relatively low levels, may offer better value post-adjustment [8][17]. Investment Strategies - For investors concerned about market volatility, "fixed income plus" products are recommended. These strategies focus on safety and stability while allowing for some equity exposure to capture market gains [19][20]. - An example is the Guotai Helix 6-month holding mixed fund, which combines high-grade credit bonds for the fixed income portion and a flexible allocation to equities, aiming for a balanced approach to risk and return [20][21].