消息面，根据应急管理部的消息，2025年11月将有22个中央安全生产考核巡查组入驻31个省份，对安全生产进行检查。安全生产考核巡查背景下，供给或将 收缩，有望推动煤价上涨。 全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）盘中涨超2.8%，当前规模破百亿元，资金积极布局，近10日净流入近10亿元。 近期，中央财经委及各行业陆续出台政策与倡议，将市场对"反内卷"的认知提升至新高度。中央财经委层级较高，此前"两重""两新"政策即由该会议提出， 相较于此前行业自发的"反内卷"行为，当前政策导向下的市场认可度与执行力度均显著增强。 从煤炭行业基本面来看，2025年行业正迎来明确改善格局——此前煤炭行业长期处于下行周期，2025年上半年煤价进一步下行，核心受两方面因素影响：一 是今年暖冬导致全国用电量回落，二是煤炭产能高增。但当前供需格局已出现积极变化：随着天气转暖，用电需求从制热转向制冷，城乡居民用电量显著恢 复，带动全社会用电量回升，火电发电量同步恢复正增长。 尽管本轮"反内卷"高层定调暂未明确提及煤炭行业，但煤炭行业已自发推进供需平衡维护：2025年2月，中国工业协会与中国煤炭协会联合发布倡议书，提 出"严格执行煤炭中长期合 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 浙商证券指出，煤炭行业基本面触底，三季度呈现量减价升态势，业绩环比改善。7-8月全国煤炭产量 同比下降，但煤炭价格探底回升，动力煤、炼焦煤、无烟煤现货价格环比分别上涨7.3%、16.0%、 3.6%，同比仍下降12.6%、17.2%、11.7%。需求端，电力行业耗煤同比减少3%，化工行业耗煤同比增 加15.8%。库存方面，重点监测企业煤炭库存总量同比减少15.6%，供给端累计销量同比下降2.3%。展 望四季度，随着旺季来临，供需有望逐步平衡，煤价预计稳步上行，动力煤、炼焦煤、无烟煤价格均有 望环比上涨。 作为市场唯一一只煤炭ETF，煤炭ETF（515220）跟踪中证煤炭指数（399998），煤炭板块股息率较 高，截至9月30日，近12个月股息率超5.3%，在无风险利率下行的背景下配置价值凸显。可考虑逢低分 批布局煤炭ETF（515220）把握煤炭板块投资机会。 ...

浙商证券表示，产能置换政策是供给侧结构性改革的核心工具，旨在控制总量、优化存量。该政策通过 减量或等量置换的原则，确保在新增先进产能的同时淘汰落后产能，从而实现行业总产能只减不增，并 推动产业升级。然而，由于产能置换指标的严格限制，可能导致未来需要减产。为了应对这一问题，国 家建立了煤炭产能储备制度，以减少部分产能置换指标。因此，在保持现有政策不变的情况下，预计煤 炭行业的供需将逐步趋于平衡，煤价将稳步上涨。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 作为市场唯一一只煤炭ETF，煤炭ETF（515220）跟踪中证煤炭指数（399998），煤炭板块股息率较 高，截至9月18日，近12个月股息率超5.3%，在无风险利率下行的背景下配置价值凸显。可考虑逢低分 批布局煤炭ETF（515220）及其联接基金（联接A：008279；联接C：008280； ...

Group 1 - The coal supply and demand situation significantly improved in July, driven by strong demand and a contraction in supply [1] - National electricity consumption increased by 8.6% year-on-year, while thermal power generation rose by 4.3%, reflecting high growth in electricity demand [1] - Coal production decreased by 40 million tons month-on-month due to extreme weather and production restrictions in key coal-producing regions like Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi [1] Group 2 - The National Energy Administration has organized production inspections in key coal-producing provinces, prohibiting overcapacity production, which further limits supply expansion [1] - The only coal ETF in the market, Coal ETF (515220), tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998) and had a dividend yield of 4.97% as of August 22, highlighting its investment value in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Coal ETF Connect C (008280) and Connect A (008279) for exposure to the coal sector [1]

Group 1 - The only coal ETF in the market (515220) has surpassed 10 billion in scale, with a net inflow of over 2.1 billion in the past 10 days, indicating strong investor interest in the coal sector [1] - Recent slight decline in thermal coal prices due to supply tightening from heavy rainfall in main production areas, while port prices remain stable, suggesting short-term price support [1] - July's thermal power generation increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with expectations that daily coal consumption at power plants will peak as the summer coal demand season comes to an end [1] Group 2 - Coking coal prices remain weak but stable, with high-priced resources slightly declining; limited coal mine production is causing slow supply increases [1] - The overall coal market shows no significant supply-demand imbalance, with high price support still in place [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998) and has a dividend yield of 4.97%, highlighting its investment value in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1]

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) has seen significant inflows, with over 2 billion yuan in net inflows in the past 10 days and over 3 billion yuan in the past 20 days, bringing its total size to over 10.4 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF in the cyclical sector [1] - The National Energy Administration has organized inspections in key coal-producing provinces to ensure production adheres to announced capacities, emphasizing the importance of addressing "involution" in the industry [1] - In July, the total electricity consumption increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and thermal power generation rose by 4.3%, indicating a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [1] Group 2 - In July, raw coal production was 380 million tons, a decrease of 40 million tons month-on-month, primarily due to extreme weather conditions in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi affecting production and sales [1] - Looking ahead, it is expected that national coal production will slightly decline in the second half of the year due to "overproduction checks," with an annual production forecast of 4.75 to 4.8 billion tons, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The coal industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in the second quarter of 2025, with downwards risks being fully released, making it a favorable time for long-term capital allocation [2]

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) has seen significant inflows, with over 2 billion yuan net inflow for 10 consecutive days and over 2.9 billion yuan in the last 20 days, reaching a total size of over 10 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF in the cyclical sector [1] - Everbright Securities indicates that recent news regarding "anti-involution" and "checking overproduction" has positively impacted the long-term expectations for coal prices, suggesting substantial upside potential for coal stock valuations and earnings [1] - Guotai Junan Securities forecasts a rebound in coal prices, expecting that as national temperatures rise and considering inventory depletion, the next two months will be a critical verification period for the fundamentals [1]

全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）规模破百亿！近10日净流入超20亿元，盘中涨超1.5%！机构："反内 卷"政策指引，煤炭或迎上行新周期 中泰证券表示，"反内卷"政策指引下"超产核查"或持续推动行业自律，驱动煤炭供应收缩。鉴于政策从 预期到落地存在时间差，短期建议弱化对报表盈利的过分关注，强化对"反内卷"政策推进力度与广度的 评估，重点关注流动性及风险偏好持续改善带动下的估值提升确定性，把握煤炭投资机会，迎接煤炭上 行新周期。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 作为市场唯一一只煤炭ETF，煤炭ETF（515220）跟踪中证煤炭指数（399998），截至8月22日，股息 率达4.97%，在无风险利率下行的背景下配置价值凸显。可考虑逢低分批布局煤炭ETF（515220）及其 联接基金（联接A：008279；联接C：0082 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market has the potential to challenge the 4000-point level, and investors with existing positions may hold, while those without should wait or observe [1] - The market has recently surpassed the previous high from October 8 of last year and has also broken through the 10-year high, indicating a strong performance in the past quarter [1][3] - Investors are questioning how to invest above 3700 points and whether the bull market has begun, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the market [1] Group 2 - The stock market's performance is influenced by multiple factors, including fundamentals, liquidity, policies, and market sentiment [3] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, with expectations for a slight decline in the second half, which has led some investors to doubt the market's fundamental support [3][4] - Despite a lower GDP growth expectation, the overall economic situation remains stable, with no significant external risks anticipated [4] Group 3 - The liquidity situation is improving, with margin trading balances steadily increasing and stock market transaction volumes returning to over 2 trillion [4] - The macro liquidity environment is generally loose, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could further support the market [5] - Policy measures are seen as neutral to slightly optimistic, with ongoing efforts in fiscal policy aimed at improving people's livelihoods [5][6] Group 4 - The market sentiment has improved significantly, driven by increased confidence in domestic capabilities, particularly in technology and defense sectors [6] - The current market trend is characterized as a "slow bull" market, suggesting a more stable and gradual upward movement rather than a rapid surge [6] - Investors are advised to consider technical indicators if they find it challenging to capture rapid changes in fundamentals, sentiment, liquidity, and policies [6] Group 5 - Asset allocation strategies are recommended to adopt a "core + satellite" approach, with a focus on technology and dividend sectors [8] - The 中证A500ETF is highlighted as a balanced product that may outperform the 沪深300 index in a bull market due to its exposure to emerging industries [8] - The communication ETF and semiconductor equipment ETF are also noted for their strong performance and potential for future growth [9][10] Group 6 - The military industry is expected to perform well historically around significant events such as military parades, indicating potential investment opportunities [10] - The consumer sector, particularly pharmaceuticals and food and beverage, is identified as a key area for investment, with specific funds recommended for consideration [10][11] - The bond market is experiencing a period of adjustment, with opportunities for investors to accumulate positions during this time [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that port coal prices have increased by 16 CNY/ton week-on-week, with coal prices in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia rising by 16 CNY/ton and 15 CNY/ton respectively, driven by good shipment from coal mines and low inventory levels [1] - The demand side shows a slight increase in iron and steel production by 0.46 million tons, providing some support for the essential demand [1] - Overall, the supply constraints in the coal mining industry remain unchanged, indicating a stable market environment [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining, washing, and coking to reflect the overall performance of the coal industry [1] - The constituent stocks cover major segments of the coal industry chain, exhibiting significant industry concentration and cyclical characteristics [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Coal ETF Connect C (008280) and Guotai CSI Coal ETF Connect A (008279) for investment opportunities [1]