本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 百胜中国 YUMC US 本文内容由 Ryan Lee (李昊谦) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 投资风险 中国消费品行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 必要举措 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 1 月 28 日发布的题为《Essential step》 的报告，肯德基已上调外送菜单价格。中信里昂认为当前是良好时机，因配送补贴可能减少。分析指出预计餐厅利润 将增加，但也注意到堂食转外卖趋势若延续可能削弱积极影响。此举措被视为百胜中国扩大肯德基的利润率、同时持 续将门店模式转向外卖模式的必要措施。分析认为，当堂食转外卖趋势放缓且同店销售额保持增长时，调价效益将显 现。这并非易事。 肯德基将平均每件外送商品价格上调 0.8 元。此次调价直接体现在外卖菜单价格上。公司上次调整肯德基外送定价是 在 ...

Core Insights - The competition between JD.com and Meituan in the food delivery market is intensifying, with JD.com recently launching its food delivery service and achieving significant daily order volumes [2][3] - Concerns about the profitability of the food delivery industry have arisen, with reports indicating that over 60% of restaurants are operating at a loss, while some platforms have gross margins exceeding 40% [4][5] - Meituan's food delivery business had a reported operating profit margin of approximately 6.4% in 2021, while JD.com aims to keep its net profit margin below 5% [5][19] Market Dynamics - JD.com announced plans to recruit 100,000 delivery riders in the next three months to capture market share, while Meituan is facing scrutiny over various operational issues [3][4] - Both companies experienced significant stock price declines due to market concerns about increased competition, with Meituan and JD.com losing over 100 billion HKD in market value within a few days [3][4] Financial Performance - Meituan's food delivery revenue in 2021 was 963 billion CNY, with delivery service revenue of 542 billion CNY and commission income of 285 billion CNY [13][15] - The projected net profit margin for Meituan's food delivery service in 2024 is estimated at 2.8%, slightly above the average of 2.2% for major global food delivery platforms [17][19] - Meituan's overall revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 3,376 billion CNY, with a net profit of 358 billion CNY, indicating a gross margin close to 40% [19] Commission Structure - Meituan claims to charge merchants a commission rate of 6%-8%, while many merchants report rates around 25%, which may include additional costs such as delivery fees and advertising [6][8] - The commission structure has been a point of contention, with various interpretations of the actual costs incurred by merchants when using Meituan's platform [8][9] Industry Trends - The global online food delivery market is projected to have a net profit margin ranging from 1.5% to 3.3% in 2024, with Uber Eats leading at 3.3% [17][19] - The competitive landscape is characterized by high commission rates and operational challenges, leading to varying profitability across different platforms [4][5][17]