25Q3 GMV 延续双位数增长趋势， 1P GMV 因国补基数拉平影响预计有所放缓慢，且由于外卖转化的 下单以日百为主，预计3P GMV 仍环比加速维持双位数高增长。 利润端，预计Q3 京东零售分部实现营业利润136.7 亿元，OPM 为5.5%，yoy+0.34%，主要系外卖协同 效应下主站流量增长使买量及C 补结构有所优化。整体京东零售稳中向好，在外卖UE 优化下有望凭借 协同效应带来的流量中短期延续稳健增长趋势。 其他业务：预计外卖UE 优化亏损环比收窄，物流稳健增长。1）新业务：我们预计25Q3 公司新业务分 部实现收入128.7 亿元，yoy+158.9%，新业务运营利润-150.1亿元。具体拆分看，Q3 起公司战略收缩外 卖补贴力度，且进一步提高补贴投放与履约端效率，单量环比Q2 延续健康增长趋势，而UE 的优化使 外卖总亏损环比Q2 有所收窄，然受到京喜及国际业务投入加码Q3 亏损仍环比增加。预计短期内外卖 UE仍将继续优化，新业务亏损Q4 起将开始收窄，整体外卖进入健康增长趋势且投入具有更好的持续 性。2）京东物流：我们预计25Q3 京东物流分部实现收入493.0 亿元，yoy+11.1%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in its retail segment, with a projected revenue of 2,486.7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.5% [8]. - The report anticipates a narrowing of losses in the food delivery segment due to strategic reductions in subsidies and improved operational efficiency [8]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 190.96 HKD, based on a valuation of 9X PE for retail and new businesses in 2026 [12]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 13,312 billion, 14,094 billion, and 14,856 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 271 billion, 438 billion, and 525 billion yuan [3][12]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of 15.8% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 1.55% [10]. - The operating profit margin (OPM) for Q3 2025 is projected to be 5.5%, indicating a year-over-year increase of 0.34% [8]. Segment Performance - The retail segment is projected to achieve a revenue of 1,155,005 million yuan in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 14.87% [10]. - The logistics segment is expected to generate revenue of 493.0 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 11.1% [8]. - New business revenue is forecasted to reach 128.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a significant year-over-year growth of 158.9% [8].