Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in its retail segment, with a projected revenue of 2,486.7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.5% [8]. - The report anticipates a narrowing of losses in the food delivery segment due to strategic reductions in subsidies and improved operational efficiency [8]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 190.96 HKD, based on a valuation of 9X PE for retail and new businesses in 2026 [12]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 13,312 billion, 14,094 billion, and 14,856 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 271 billion, 438 billion, and 525 billion yuan [3][12]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of 15.8% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 1.55% [10]. - The operating profit margin (OPM) for Q3 2025 is projected to be 5.5%, indicating a year-over-year increase of 0.34% [8]. Segment Performance - The retail segment is projected to achieve a revenue of 1,155,005 million yuan in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 14.87% [10]. - The logistics segment is expected to generate revenue of 493.0 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 11.1% [8]. - New business revenue is forecasted to reach 128.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a significant year-over-year growth of 158.9% [8].

Core Insights - The Double 11 shopping festival has started earlier this year, with a promotional period extending over a month, indicating platforms' strong demand for traffic and growth [1] - Platforms are implementing classic promotions like "spend 300 get 50 off" alongside "single item discounts," while increasing subsidies for member users to enhance core user loyalty [1] - The integration of food delivery and instant retail platforms is expected to be a new variable in this year's promotions, highlighting the synergy between food delivery and e-commerce [1] Group 1: Promotion Timing and Structure - The promotional period for this year's Double 11 has been extended by about a week, with platforms like JD and Douyin starting sales earlier, while Tmall has prolonged the end period, resulting in over a month of promotions [1] - The extended promotional period may weaken consumer perception and impulse buying, as ongoing low-price experiences become normalized [1] - The overall sales data during this period reflects the platforms' current development momentum rather than just total growth rates, suggesting a focus on user and category strategies [1] Group 2: Discount Strategies - Most platforms are combining traditional "spend 300 get 50 off" offers with "single item discounts" to lower the entry barrier for consumers, enhancing user experience [2] - The average discount offered across platforms is around 83% to 85%, maintaining a consistent level compared to previous years [2] Group 3: Core User Incentives - Additional discount packages for core members have been enhanced, with platforms like Alibaba and JD offering extra coupons to boost conversion rates among VIP users [3] - For instance, Alibaba provides an "spend 500 get 50 off" coupon for 88VIP members, which is more generous compared to the previous year's offerings [3] - This strategy reflects a deeper focus on core users as the potential for new user growth is limited [3] Group 4: Instant Retail Focus - Instant retail is highlighted as a key aspect of this year's Double 11, with platforms like Meituan, JD, and Taobao expanding their offerings [4] - JD is promoting instant delivery items at discounts as low as 50%, while Taobao is offering 50% off for 88VIP on food delivery [4] - The high-frequency traffic from instant retail may create a synergistic effect for e-commerce platforms during the promotional period [4]