美国政府资金主要来源于借债。每年财政赤字巨大，税收不够，必须不断发债维持运转。但债务总量是有限制的，一旦达到上限，必须获得国会同意提高债 务上限。然而，美国的政治局势日益极化，妥协变得越来越困难。一边要求削减开支，另一边又没有政治意愿妥协，导致政府关门成为常态。 这并不意味着中美关系破裂，而是中国对当前局势的审慎反应。早期，中国大量购买美债，是因为美元相对稳定，美国经济状况尚可。但如今，美国财政危 机四伏，通货膨胀起伏不定，利率波动频繁，政府频繁争执债务上限，这使得投资美国国债的风险增大。全球经济正在转型，各国都在寻求新的增长点和合 作伙伴，中国自然也不例外。 近日，美国政府再次上演了"关门停摆"的老戏码。这一幕虽然早已不新鲜，但此次的背景却有些特别——在美国财政困难、预算难以达成时，中国悄悄减持 了大量美国国债，仅在七个月内就处理了500亿美元。 乍看之下，这两个事件似乎没什么直接关联，但一结合，便形成了一种微妙的"节奏"。美国白宫一片惶恐，而中国则在默默布局。这让人不禁要问：这一 招，真的奏效了吗？ 中国减持美债，绝非一时冲动或情绪化的决定，而是经过深思熟虑的战略选择。美国近年来财政状况持续恶化，财政赤字 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchasing trends [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 776.8 CNY per gram, up by 0.52% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3387.2 USD per ounce, down by 0.04% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Market is focused on the Jackson Hole symposium, with attention on Powell's speech. If he suggests a slowdown in interest rate cuts, a stronger dollar may suppress gold prices. Current market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in September, with potential for another cut later in the year. However, higher-than-expected July PPI raises concerns about Powell downplaying September rate cut expectations. The probability of a September rate cut is fluctuating according to CME FedWatch tool [3]. - Geopolitical Situation: Accelerating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and Trump's exclusion of ground troop deployment signals a potential easing of conflict, reducing gold's safe-haven demand. However, ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties may still drive gold prices up if tensions escalate [3]. - Central Bank Gold Purchasing Dynamics: After gold prices surpassed 3300 USD per ounce in Q2, global central bank gold purchases have slowed. Nonetheless, the long-term trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves and "de-dollarization" remains intact. The People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for nine consecutive months, with other countries like Poland and Turkey also increasing their gold reserves, providing a support base for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term gold price is subject to uncertainties from Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments. If Powell's speech is hawkish, gold prices may remain under pressure; conversely, confirmation of a rate cut path could lead to a rebound. Easing geopolitical tensions may suppress gold's safe-haven demand. In the long term, ongoing central bank gold purchases provide support for gold prices, alongside concerns over the large scale of U.S. debt potentially driving up safe-haven assets like gold [4].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1," marking a significant shift in the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as a safe asset [1][3][4]. Group 1: Rating Downgrade Details - Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating was unexpected, occurring before the resolution of ongoing negotiations in Congress regarding major fiscal legislation [3]. - The downgrade reflects concerns over the increasing U.S. government debt and rising interest expenses, with projections indicating a potential increase in government debt by $5 trillion over the next decade due to proposed tax cuts [3][4]. - Following the downgrade announcement, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly rose to 4.49%, an increase of approximately 0.05% from before the announcement [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Despite the downgrade, major financial institutions, including Barclays, believe that there will not be a forced sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, as they continue to be viewed as "risk-free" assets [4]. - Japanese financial institutions have expressed that the impact of the downgrade is limited, with no plans to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries [4]. - There is a noted trend of foreign investors, including China, reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with China's holdings dropping to $765.3 billion, a decrease of $18.9 billion from the previous month [5][6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The downgrade comes at a time when U.S. interest rates are already under upward pressure, influenced by various economic factors including the potential for a stronger fiscal policy under the Trump administration [5]. - The sentiment among investors remains cautious, with ongoing concerns about the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt effectively, which could hinder the return of capital to the U.S. [6].