据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1001.82元/克，上涨0.21%。 美国疲软就业数据强化了2026年至少两次降息的市场预期，低利率环境利好无息资产黄金。1月9日即将 公布的12月非农就业报告成为关键节点，市场预期新增就业岗位降至6万个。若数据符合或弱于预期， 将巩固降息预期支撑金价；若超预期强劲，则可能引发短期回调。 地缘冲突持续叠加央行购金托底金价 全球地缘不确定性升温，美国在委内瑞拉的军事行动、特朗普威胁对哥伦比亚动武，推动避险资金流入 黄金。各国央行持续购金支撑金价，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金，2025年12月末储备环比增3万盎 司至7415万盎司，通过增持优化外储结构成为长期趋势。 国际黄金价格报4479.7美元/盎司，上涨0.43%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 美联储降息预期与非农数据即将揭晓 机构长期看涨叠加短期技术面承压 机构普遍长期看涨金价，汇丰预计上半年金价触及5000美元/盎司，摩根士丹利认为四季度将升至4800 美元/盎司。但短期彭博商品指数权重调整引发基金被动抛售，给金价带来下行压力，高盛提示库存偏 紧或先引发剧烈波动 ...

芝商所上调保证金触发集中抛售 据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为986.34元/克，上涨0.04%。 国际黄金价格报4350.4美元/盎司，下跌0.82%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 央行购金长期支撑与短期避险降温交织 2025年全球央行前三季度净购黄金634吨，全年购金需求创纪录，95%的央行预期未来继续增持，为金 价提供长期支撑。但近期乌克兰和平谈判出现初步进展，短期避险情绪降温，叠加美元短线走强，共同 推动金价阶段性回调，长期上涨逻辑未被打破。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 芝商所宣布上调贵金属等金属期货履约保证金超10%，叠加年末交易流动性稀薄，大量投资者赶在新规 生效前集中卖出平仓，引发12月29日国际贵金属价格大幅下跌，后续迎来阶段性反弹。此次调整被视为 打压短期过热行情的导火线，加剧多头被动减仓放大短期波动。 年末获利了结叠加技术超买回调 2025年黄金累计涨幅近70%，12月26日现货金价触及4549.92美元历史新高后，技术指标长期处于超买 区间。年末投资者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and economic data performance [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 781.12 CNY per gram, up 0.71% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3411.4 USD per ounce, down 0.21% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a nearly 100% probability according to CME FedWatch. However, internal disagreements within the Fed regarding inflation concerns add uncertainty [2]. - Geopolitical Situation: Accelerating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine may reduce gold's safe-haven demand if tensions ease, while increased geopolitical tensions could enhance gold's appeal [2]. - Economic Data Performance: Key economic indicators like U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI are under scrutiny. Weak data could support the case for rate cuts, bolstering gold prices, while strong data may lead to volatility [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold price movements will be primarily driven by Federal Reserve rate cut signals and changes in geopolitical tensions. Clear signals from the Fed or heightened geopolitical risks could lead to price increases, while the opposite may apply [3]. - In the long term, increased global economic uncertainty and the onset of a rate cut cycle could provide upward momentum for gold as a safe-haven and inflation hedge, though improvements in economic data or shifts in Fed policy could pose risks of price corrections [3].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold prices are influenced by various factors including Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical tensions, and the strength of the US dollar [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 776.08 CNY per gram, down 0.01% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3380.5 USD per ounce, down 0.03% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: There is significant market divergence regarding the likelihood and extent of a potential rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, but the unexpected rise in July PPI has cooled rate cut expectations. Investors are focused on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, which could either strengthen the dollar and pressure gold if hawkish, or allow for a rebound in gold if dovish [3]. - Geopolitical Situation: Ongoing negotiations between the US and Russia have not reached an agreement, with attention on the Russia-Ukraine talks. Trump's positive signals for ending the conflict may weaken gold's safe-haven demand if peace talks progress, but uncertainty regarding Putin's willingness to agree maintains support for gold [3]. - US Dollar Performance: The dollar's strong performance has negatively impacted gold prices, as a rising dollar index makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing demand [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Gold prices are currently in a sensitive range with mixed factors at play. The Federal Reserve's policy remains a key variable; a dovish signal from Powell could lead to a short-term rebound, while an emphasis on inflation may continue to pressure gold. Geopolitical uncertainties persist, with positive developments in negotiations potentially reducing gold's appeal, while adverse developments could boost it. The dollar's performance will continue to influence gold prices. Overall, gold is expected to maintain a range-bound movement in the short term, with critical levels such as the 100-day moving average being closely monitored for potential breakout or breakdown [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchasing trends [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 776.8 CNY per gram, up by 0.52% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3387.2 USD per ounce, down by 0.04% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Market is focused on the Jackson Hole symposium, with attention on Powell's speech. If he suggests a slowdown in interest rate cuts, a stronger dollar may suppress gold prices. Current market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in September, with potential for another cut later in the year. However, higher-than-expected July PPI raises concerns about Powell downplaying September rate cut expectations. The probability of a September rate cut is fluctuating according to CME FedWatch tool [3]. - Geopolitical Situation: Accelerating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and Trump's exclusion of ground troop deployment signals a potential easing of conflict, reducing gold's safe-haven demand. However, ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties may still drive gold prices up if tensions escalate [3]. - Central Bank Gold Purchasing Dynamics: After gold prices surpassed 3300 USD per ounce in Q2, global central bank gold purchases have slowed. Nonetheless, the long-term trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves and "de-dollarization" remains intact. The People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for nine consecutive months, with other countries like Poland and Turkey also increasing their gold reserves, providing a support base for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term gold price is subject to uncertainties from Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments. If Powell's speech is hawkish, gold prices may remain under pressure; conversely, confirmation of a rate cut path could lead to a rebound. Easing geopolitical tensions may suppress gold's safe-haven demand. In the long term, ongoing central bank gold purchases provide support for gold prices, alongside concerns over the large scale of U.S. debt potentially driving up safe-haven assets like gold [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including calls for interest rate cuts by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and economic data performance [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 775.08 CNY per gram, down 0.01% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3,385.0 USD per ounce, up 0.07% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for interest rate cuts has heightened market expectations for a rate reduction next month, which typically supports non-yielding gold prices [3]. - Tariff policies and geopolitical issues, including statements from Trump regarding tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, as well as tensions in regions like Israel and Ukraine, have increased market risk aversion, impacting gold prices [3]. - Economic data, such as the July CPI showing moderate inflation, supports the expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, influencing gold investment demand [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests that expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve may support gold prices, although rising U.S. stock markets and easing geopolitical tensions could limit safe-haven demand [4]. - Long-term factors such as global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are likely to drive gold prices higher, although improvements in U.S. economic data or unexpected Federal Reserve policy changes could restrict price increases [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. tariff policies, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions, leading to a volatile market environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 777.98 CNY per gram, down 0.87% [1]. - International gold price stands at 3403.6 USD per ounce, down 0.03% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - U.S. Tariff Policy: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has ruled that certain gold bars require tariffs, causing market turbulence and a spike in gold futures prices. However, the White House plans to clarify and maintain tariff exemptions, creating selling pressure on gold [2]. - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is favorable for non-yielding gold. Recent employment data supports the argument for three rate cuts this year [3]. - Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical events contribute to a risk premium for gold as a safe-haven asset. The U.S.-China tariff truce and meetings between U.S. and Russian leaders add to market uncertainty [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to the interplay of tariff policies, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and geopolitical tensions. Attention will be focused on U.S. inflation data and policy direction, with high uncertainty surrounding gold prices [4]. - In the long term, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates and geopolitical risks persist, gold may continue to be supported as a safe-haven asset [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by disappointing U.S. employment data, rising interest rate cut expectations, trade tensions, and a weakening dollar, creating a favorable environment for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - U.S. non-farm payrolls for July increased by only 73,000, significantly below expectations, leading to a surge in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut from 38% to 90% for September, with some predicting a 50 basis point cut [3]. - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. on products from Canada, Brazil, and India has triggered a global stock market decline, increasing demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset amid rising market uncertainty [3]. - A 1.39% drop in the U.S. dollar index, the largest decline since April, along with a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields, has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, further supporting its price [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold - In the short term, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected and trade issues persist, gold prices are likely to continue rising [4]. - However, if upcoming U.S. economic data exceeds expectations or if Federal Reserve officials adopt a hawkish stance, a price correction may occur [4]. - Long-term factors such as global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices, allowing for sustained high-level fluctuations and potential further increases [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the US-EU trade agreement, the rebound of the US dollar, and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 774.32 RMB per gram, up by 0.49% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3384.9 USD per ounce, increasing by 0.11% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The US-EU trade agreement reached on July 27, where the EU will increase purchases of over 1.3 trillion USD of US products, alleviates global trade war concerns, boosting market risk appetite and stock markets, but may suppress gold prices [2]. - The rebound of the US dollar index, supported by strong US economic data, has pressured gold prices as it increases the cost of gold for non-US currency holders [3]. - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance have reduced the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset, leading to weaker buying interest [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices may continue to fluctuate due to mixed factors, with potential downward pressure if trade tensions ease, the dollar strengthens, or the Fed maintains a hawkish stance [4]. - Long-term factors such as global central bank gold purchases, geopolitical tensions, and inflation hedging demand may still drive gold prices higher, necessitating close monitoring of key developments [4].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic and international gold prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a favorable US-EU trade agreement and a strong US dollar, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Price - As of 8:30 AM, the domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 770.84 CNY per gram, down 0.31% [1]. Group 2: International Gold Price - The international gold price is reported at 3307.4 USD per ounce, down 0.08% [2]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on Gold Prices - The US and EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, alleviating fears of a larger trade war and enhancing market optimism, which reduces the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The strong performance of the US dollar, which rose 1% to a one-week high, makes gold more expensive for overseas buyers, further decreasing its attractiveness [4]. - Ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to provide limited breakthroughs, maintaining some uncertainty in the market, which may offer slight support for gold prices despite the downward pressures from the US-EU agreement and the strong dollar [5].