截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为781.12元/克，上涨0.71%。 来源：金融界 2. 地缘政治局势：俄乌和平谈判加速推进，美俄乌会谈受关注。若冲突缓和，将削弱黄金避险需求；反 之，地缘政治紧张会增强黄金避险吸引力。如近期俄乌领导人双边会谈筹备等消息影响市场对黄金的避 险需求判断。 3. 经济数据表现：美国非农及CPI等数据受关注。数据走弱强化降息逻辑支撑金价，强劲则可能引发震 荡。如美国7月PPI显示价格压力回升，削减了对"超大幅降息"的押注，影响黄金价格。 走势展望点评 黄金走势受多因素交织影响。短期来看，美联储降息预期和地缘政治局势变化将主导金价波动。若美联 储释放明确降息信号或地缘政治紧张加剧，金价有望上涨；反之则可能承压。长期而言，若全球经济不 确定性增加、降息周期开启，黄金作为避险资产和抗通胀工具，仍有上涨空间，但需警惕经济数据好转 或美联储政策转向带来的回调风险。 国际黄金价格报3411.4美元/盎司，下跌0.21%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 1. 美联储降息预期：市场普遍预期美联储9月降息，CME FedWatch工具显示9月降息25个基点概率接近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. tariff policies, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions, leading to a volatile market environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 777.98 CNY per gram, down 0.87% [1]. - International gold price stands at 3403.6 USD per ounce, down 0.03% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - U.S. Tariff Policy: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has ruled that certain gold bars require tariffs, causing market turbulence and a spike in gold futures prices. However, the White House plans to clarify and maintain tariff exemptions, creating selling pressure on gold [2]. - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is favorable for non-yielding gold. Recent employment data supports the argument for three rate cuts this year [3]. - Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical events contribute to a risk premium for gold as a safe-haven asset. The U.S.-China tariff truce and meetings between U.S. and Russian leaders add to market uncertainty [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to the interplay of tariff policies, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and geopolitical tensions. Attention will be focused on U.S. inflation data and policy direction, with high uncertainty surrounding gold prices [4]. - In the long term, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates and geopolitical risks persist, gold may continue to be supported as a safe-haven asset [4].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic and international gold prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a favorable US-EU trade agreement and a strong US dollar, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Price - As of 8:30 AM, the domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 770.84 CNY per gram, down 0.31% [1]. Group 2: International Gold Price - The international gold price is reported at 3307.4 USD per ounce, down 0.08% [2]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on Gold Prices - The US and EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, alleviating fears of a larger trade war and enhancing market optimism, which reduces the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The strong performance of the US dollar, which rose 1% to a one-week high, makes gold more expensive for overseas buyers, further decreasing its attractiveness [4]. - Ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to provide limited breakthroughs, maintaining some uncertainty in the market, which may offer slight support for gold prices despite the downward pressures from the US-EU agreement and the strong dollar [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by developments in US-EU trade agreements, Federal Reserve dynamics, and geopolitical situations, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term while maintaining a strong long-term perspective on gold prices due to central bank purchases. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - US-EU Trade Agreement Progress: The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and EU has reduced market risk aversion, causing spot gold to open significantly lower by $18, reaching a near one-month low [3]. - Federal Reserve Dynamics: The July meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve suggest a potential rate cut of only 25 basis points in September, which is below the market's expectation of 50 basis points, leading to a strengthening of the dollar and a decrease in gold demand [3]. - Geopolitical Situations: A temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has led to a rapid decline in geopolitical premiums, with a $15 drop in gold prices. Ongoing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to affect market sentiment [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - Short-term Outlook: Gold prices are expected to remain weak with support levels at $3300 - $3315 and resistance levels at $3350 - $3370. A break below key support could lead to further declines, while a breakout above resistance may allow for a rebound [4]. - Long-term Perspective: The logic supporting gold prices remains robust due to ongoing purchases by global central banks, although attention must be paid to changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, trade dynamics, and geopolitical risks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a combination of factors including the performance of the US dollar and treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchasing behavior [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The US dollar index has fallen below 98, reaching its lowest point since April, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped to a one-week low, reducing the holding cost of gold [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the impending US tariff deadline and ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - A significant increase in central bank gold purchases has been noted, with 19 out of 36 global central banks directly procuring gold from domestic mines, up from 14 last year, indicating a shift away from reliance on US dollar settlements [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Trends and Future Outlook - Gold prices have recently surpassed the $3,400 per ounce mark, driven by the weakness of the dollar and treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying [4]. - The upcoming tariff deadline and signals from the Federal Reserve are expected to increase market volatility, potentially leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [4]. - Long-term trends suggest that central bank purchases and diversification of monetary reserves will enhance the strategic value of gold, although high levels of net long positions in gold futures may lead to profit-taking if the Fed delays rate cuts or geopolitical tensions ease [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by tariff policies, central bank gold purchases, and Federal Reserve policy expectations, creating a complex market environment for gold [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico starting August 1 has increased global economic uncertainty, which is favorable for gold and silver [2]. - The slow and unstable progress of tariff negotiations has led to concerns within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation stability, impacting interest rate cut expectations and subsequently gold prices [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks continue to support gold prices through sustained purchases, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, adding 70,000 ounces in June [2]. - A report from the World Gold Council indicates that nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, reinforcing gold's long-term appeal as a hedge against dollar risk [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market expectations for two interest rate cuts this year have been factored into gold prices, but tariff issues have created inflation concerns within the Federal Reserve, making them hesitant to cut rates [2]. - A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve would lower the cost of holding gold, which would be bullish for gold prices, while a decision against cutting rates could exert downward pressure [2]. Group 4: Price Trends and Outlook - Recent gold price movements have been volatile due to the interplay of tariff policies, central bank purchases, and Federal Reserve expectations [3]. - Short-term price levels are expected to oscillate, with resistance at $3,400 - $3,500 per ounce and support at $3,300 - $3,350 per ounce [3]. - Long-term, gold's status as a hard currency is likely to be reinforced amid ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation pressures, suggesting potential for price increases [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by easing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, and a shift in fund flows from gold ETFs [1][2]. Geopolitical Situation - The recent easing of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, has weakened the safe-haven appeal of gold. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and increasing great power competition continue to pose long-term geopolitical risks that may support gold prices in the future. Following the ceasefire agreement, COMEX gold futures experienced a drop of over 2% [1]. Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are inconsistent. The latest CME "FedWatch" indicates an 81.9% probability of maintaining rates in July and a 76% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by September. Stronger-than-expected PCE data and tariff policies from the Trump administration may delay the rate cut timeline, suppressing gold price rebounds. However, if subsequent economic data shows weakness, it could strengthen demand for gold as a safe haven [1]. Fund Flows - According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETF demand turned negative in May, with North American and Asian funds leading the decline. This marks the first monthly net outflow from global gold ETFs, with total assets under management decreasing by 1% month-over-month. The shift in fund flows is putting pressure on the gold market [1]. Market Outlook - Gold is currently in a short-term downward trend due to reduced market risk appetite stemming from geopolitical easing and uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies. However, long-term factors such as global debt issues and great power competition may reactivate gold's safe-haven attributes. Future expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts could also drive gold prices higher. Short-term attention should be on the breakout situation in the $3250 - $3280 range, as well as the outcomes of tariff negotiations on July 9 and Federal Reserve policy developments [2].