Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in China's foreign exchange reserves to $3.34 trillion contrasts sharply with the depreciation of the RMB against the USD, raising questions about the effectiveness of reserve accumulation in stabilizing the currency [2] Group 1: Data Paradox - The growth in reserves is accompanied by concerns over structural imbalances, with the proportion of USD assets falling to 58% from a peak of 73% in 2014, while holdings in EUR, JPY, and gold have increased to 32% [2] - The opportunity cost of holding USD assets is significant, with a yield of 2.3% compared to 4.8% for 10-year US Treasury bonds, resulting in an annualized opportunity cost exceeding $15 billion [2] - The RMB depreciation is driven by three main factors: widening interest rate differentials, narrowing trade surpluses, and diverging policy expectations [2] Group 2: Arbitrage Opportunities - The onshore-offshore price gap for the RMB has widened, creating an arbitrage opportunity with a potential annualized return of 1.9% [2] - The offshore RMB liquidity has tightened, as indicated by the spike in CNH Hibor to 13.4%, the highest since 2013, increasing the cost of arbitrage [2] - The derivatives market shows a 2.1% arbitrage opportunity between NDF and DF rates, with a significant increase in foreign institutional trading volume [2] Group 3: Policy Responses - The central bank has reactivated counter-cyclical factors in the exchange rate management model, adjusting the counter-cyclical coefficient to 0.8 to limit depreciation [2] - Capital controls have been tightened, requiring banks to conduct thorough reviews of large foreign exchange transactions, particularly in technology and real estate sectors [2] - The central bank has signaled stability by emphasizing the adequacy of reserves to manage short-term fluctuations and has increased gold holdings to diversify reserve assets [2] Group 4: Underlying Contradictions - Concerns about the quality of reserves are rising, particularly regarding the liquidity risks associated with the $1.1 trillion in US Treasury bonds held by China [2] - The balance between market-driven and interventionist approaches in exchange rate formation is challenged, with a significant increase in direct interventions by the central bank [2] - The real effective exchange rate has appreciated by 23% since 2015, impacting export competitiveness and increasing import costs for key commodities [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term arbitrage opportunities are expected to narrow by Q4 2025 as the US Federal Reserve nears the end of its rate hike cycle [2] - Long-term reforms are anticipated, including optimizing reserve structures and enhancing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate [2] - The need for a new balance in reserve management, exchange rate mechanisms, and industrial upgrades is emphasized to ensure sustainable financial security [2]

4月25日，中国人民银行发布消息，为提升金融机构外汇资金运用能力，中国人民银行决定，自 2022年5月15日起，下调金融机构外汇存款准备金率1个百分点，即外汇存款准备金率由现行的9%下调 至8%。 中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，近期受美联储进一步加息预期的影 响，美元指数和美债利率都出现较大幅度上行。下调外汇存款准备金率有助于增加市场上的外汇供给， 平抑市场波动，发挥稳定市场预期和稳定人民币汇率的作用。 据央行数据显示，截至3月末，外币存款余额1.05万亿美元。由此计算，下调外汇存款准备金率1个百分 点，大约可以释放105亿美元外汇流动性。 从汇率来看，4月25日，美元指数盘中最高触及101.7509，创2020年3月26日以来新高。近期人民币对美 元则处于贬值状态，4月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中跌破6.6，最低下探至6.6089。 从美债收益率来看，Wind数据显示，4月22日，对货币政策高度敏感的2年期美债收益率为2.72%，不仅 是年内最高水平，也是自2018年12月18日以来首次突破2.7%。10年期美债4月21日、4月22日均维持在 2.9%，为月内次高水平。 从汇 ...

9月5日，中国人民银行官网发布公告称，为提升金融机构外汇资金运用能力，人民银行决定，自 2022年9月15日起，下调金融机构外汇存款准备金率2个百分点，即外汇存款准备金率由现行8%下调至 6%。 近期，全球外汇市场波动加剧，自8月15日以来，人民币对美元中间价贬值幅度为2.3%。人民银行 下调金融机构外汇存款准备金率，对于外汇市场来说，信号意义明显。这也是年内人民银行第二次调降 外汇准备金率。 在当天举行的国务院政策例行吹风会上，人民银行副行长刘国强指出，目前来看中国外汇市场运行 正常，跨境资金流动有序，受美国货币政策的溢出效应虽然有影响，但是影响可控。同时他强调，世界 对人民币认可度会不断增强，这是长期趋势，但短期内人民币汇率双向波动是一种常态，不会出现"单 边市"。 "下调金融机构外汇存款准备金率，意味着境内金融机构为外汇存款缴存的准备金减少，有助于增 加市场上美元流动性，并提升金融机构外汇资金运用能力，有利于人民币汇率的稳定。"民生银行首席 经济学家温彬认为，央行此举向市场释放积极信号，有利于稳定人民币汇率预期，避免出现非理性的超 调。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:任想】 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青同样表示， ...