内容提要 2025年以来俄罗斯卢布兑美元大幅升值。在油价持续低迷且俄罗斯经济增长疲软的背景下，卢布升值的原因，一是俄通过增加非油气出口、资本管制等改善 了经常账户与资本账户平衡；二是俄紧缩货币政策、外汇市场干预等也支撑了卢布汇率。卢布升值对俄联邦财政收入和企业经营造成负面影响，进而削弱了 俄经济增长动能，降低了俄资产的吸引力。我国需关注强卢布可能给哈萨克斯坦等中亚国家带来的输入性通胀等外溢影响，并警惕其他新兴市场国家类似的 汇率波动风险。 一、卢布大幅升值、锚定油价逻辑失灵 一是俄罗斯外债下降，购汇偿债需求低。2020至2024年，俄国家外债占GDP比重从3.9%下降至2.6%。2025年前三季度俄国家外债进一步下降13%，至4.6万 亿卢布。而且俄罗斯政府以卢布替代外币偿还对非友好国家债务，并允许和鼓励俄罗斯企业以卢布债券替代此前发行的欧洲债券，俄罗斯政府和企业购汇偿 债的需求均下降。 俄罗斯卢布曾长期被视作"石油货币"，其币值与油价高度正相关，这主要是由于石油、天然气等长期是俄罗斯主要的出口产品，是俄罗斯外汇储备和财政收 入的最主要来源。但2025年以来，俄卢布汇率与油价走势大幅背离，卢布兑美元汇率较年初 ...

你有没有想过一个问题：美国印了那么多钱，凭什么全世界给它买单？现在大家为什么又渐渐不给他买 单了？ 以前这事儿美国人干得挺顺。剧本是这样的：第一步，开动印钞机，美元像洪水一样冲向全球。第二 步，拿着这些绿纸买你的商品、你的工厂、你的资源，你吭哧吭哧干活，攒下一堆美元。第三步，美国 拍拍屁股说"钱太多了要收一收"，美元回流，你们手里的资产——股市、楼市、汇率——哗啦啦全崩 了。第四步，华尔街带着印好的新美元回来，白菜价把你们最值钱的东西全收走。 数据不会骗人：当时韩国外债已经飙到1100亿美元，其中一半是短期债。什么意思？就像你月薪一万， 却借了五十万高利贷，还全是一个月后要还的。风平浪静时没事，但只要有人喊一嗓子"他还不上"，挤 兑就开始了。 1997年10月，那一嗓子来了。 外资疯狂撤离，韩元断崖式下跌，央行拼命抛美元护盘。两个月时间，外汇储备从300亿砸到只剩197 亿，再到12月几乎见底。韩国政府不得不跪着向IMF求援，借来550亿美元救命钱，代价是什么？ 全面开放金融市场。 一个完整的"收割循环"，完美闭环。 这套玩法，美国玩了快五十年，屡试不爽。东南亚四小龙被它割过，拉美被它割过，日本被它割得三十 ...

来源：经济学家圈 资料图。本文来 源：新浪财经 达利欧警告：我们正处在"资本战争"边缘 桥水基金创始人达利欧（Ray Dalio）警告称，在地缘政治紧张局势和资本市场波动加剧的背景下，全球正处于"资本战争"的边缘。 2月3日，据CNBC报道，达利欧在阿联酋迪拜举行的世界政府峰会上接受CNBC采访时表示，"资本战争"是指通过贸易禁运、阻止进入资本市场或利用债 务所有权作为杠杆等措施将资金武器化。 这位传奇投资者强调，尽管尚未陷入"资本战争"，但已非常接近这一临界点，相互恐惧可能轻易将世界推入这场以金钱为武器的冲突。他指出，特朗普政 府近期对格陵兰的举动，已导致紧张局势升级。据新华社报道，此前，特朗普政府曾威胁若不满足其对丹麦领土格陵兰岛的要求，将对欧洲发动贸易战， 甚至不排除动用军事力量。 欧洲持有美元资产的投资者担心可能遭受制裁，而美国方面也担忧无法获得欧洲的资本支持。根据花旗研究数据，去年4月至11月期间，欧洲投资者占美 国国债外国购买量的80%。达利欧强调，"资本和金钱至关重要"，全球各地正在实施资本管制，主权财富基金和央行已在为此类管制做准备。 在市场剧烈波动之际，达利欧重申黄金仍是最佳避险资产，建议投 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's top financial regulators have significantly expanded the existing crypto ban, specifically targeting stablecoin issuances and the tokenization of real-world assets, marking the most aggressive tightening of capital controls since the 2021 prohibition on Bitcoin mining and trading [1][2]. Regulatory Actions - The joint notice was released on February 6 by eight agencies, including the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1]. - New rules prohibit foreign entities from offering stablecoin or tokenization services to Chinese residents, addressing a surge in virtual asset activities perceived as a threat to financial stability [2]. Offshore Loophole Closure - The crackdown targets the "offshore loophole" by banning domestic firms and their overseas branches from issuing digital currencies without explicit government approval [3]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized that stablecoins, especially those pegged to fiat currencies, possess attributes of sovereign money [3]. Financial Control and Compliance - Authorities argue that private digital assets undermine the state's control over the money supply and circumvent anti-money-laundering protocols [4]. - The notice specifically prohibits any entity from issuing Renminbi-pegged stablecoins abroad, seen as a defense of the e-CNY, China's official central bank digital currency [4]. Real-World Asset Tokenization - The directive also targets the $24 billion Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization sector, reclassifying unauthorized tokenization as "illegal public security offerings" and "unauthorized futures business" [5][7]. - Activities related to RWA tokenization within China, including intermediary and IT services suspected of illegal token issuance, are prohibited [7]. Compliance and Oversight - The notice allows limited activities on government-approved financial infrastructure but requires firms pursuing tokenization abroad to meet heightened compliance standards and obtain domestic clearance [8]. - The central government plans to implement a collaborative framework for local and national oversight to enforce these measures [8].

Group 1 - Ray Dalio stated that the world is on the brink of a "capital war," with central banks and sovereign wealth funds preparing for measures such as foreign exchange controls and capital controls [1][2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatility in capital markets are contributing to this situation, with the potential for capital markets to be weaponized through trade embargoes and restricted access [2] - Dalio highlighted the fear among European investors holding dollar-denominated assets regarding potential sanctions, while also noting similar concerns from the U.S. about capital access from Europe [2] Group 2 - Despite recent market sell-offs, gold remains one of the best investment choices, with gold and silver showing signs of recovery as of February 3 [3] - Gold has increased by approximately 65% over the past year but has since retraced about 16% from its peak, indicating its volatility [3] - Dalio emphasized the importance of maintaining a diversified investment portfolio, suggesting that central banks and sovereign wealth funds should consider a significant allocation to gold as a risk diversification tool [3]

桥水基金创始人达利欧（Ray Dalio）警告称，在地缘政治紧张局势和资本市场波动加剧的背景下，全球正处于"资本战争"的边缘。 2月3日，据CNBC报道，达利欧在阿联酋迪拜举行的世界政府峰会上接受CNBC采访时表示， "资本战争"是指通过贸易禁运、阻止进入资本市场或利用债务所 有权作为杠杆等措施将资金武器化。 这位传奇投资者强调，尽管尚未陷入"资本战争"，但已非常接近这一临界点，相互恐惧可能轻易将世界推入这场以金钱为武器的冲突。他指出， 特朗普政府近 期对格陵兰的举动，已导致紧张局势升级。 据新华社报道，此前，特朗普政府曾威胁若不满足其对丹麦领土格陵兰岛的要求，将对欧洲发动贸易战，甚至不排除动用军事力量。 欧洲持有美元资产的投资者担心可能遭受制裁，而美国方面也担忧无法获得欧洲的资本支持。根据花旗研究数据，去年4月至11月期间，欧洲投资者占美国国 债外国购买量的80%。 达利欧强调， "资本和金钱至关重要"，全球各地正在实施资本管制，主权财富基金和央行已在为此类管制做准备。 在市场剧烈波动之际，达利欧重申黄金仍是最佳避险资产，建议投资者保持多元化投资组合以应对不确定性。 " 资本战争"风险显著上升 达利欧明确表 ...

桥水基金创始人达利欧（Ray Dalio）警告称，在地缘政治紧张局势和资本市场波动加剧的背景下，全 球正处于"资本战争"的边缘。 "人们可以想象当今世界存在类似情况，甚至不同国家领导人已经讨论过美国和欧洲的相互 依赖问题。" 2月3日，据CNBC报道，达利欧在阿联酋迪拜举行的世界政府峰会上接受CNBC采访时表示，"资本战 争"是指通过贸易禁运、阻止进入资本市场或利用债务所有权作为杠杆等措施将资金武器化。 这位传奇投资者强调，尽管尚未陷入"资本战争"，但已非常接近这一临界点，相互恐惧可能轻易将世界 推入这场以金钱为武器的冲突。他指出，特朗普政府近期对格陵兰的举动，已导致紧张局势升级。据新 华社报道，此前，特朗普政府曾威胁若不满足其对丹麦领土格陵兰岛的要求，将对欧洲发动贸易战，甚 至不排除动用军事力量。 欧洲持有美元资产的投资者担心可能遭受制裁，而美国方面也担忧无法获得欧洲的资本支持。根据花旗 研究数据，去年4月至11月期间，欧洲投资者占美国国债外国购买量的80%。达利欧强调，"资本和金钱 至关重要"，全球各地正在实施资本管制，主权财富基金和央行已在为此类管制做准备。 在市场剧烈波动之际，达利欧重申黄金仍是最佳避 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to continuous wrong policies in the US [2] - There is significant uncertainty in the global economic situation, influenced by factors such as potential inflation resurgence, Fed policy changes, and geopolitical issues [1][2] Summary by Related Content Global Economic News - Global financial giants like BlackRock, Pimco, and Bridgewater are guarding against inflation resurgence, with the 10 - year inflation swap reaching its highest increase in a year. Some top - tier institutions warn that inflation may return above 4% by the end of the year [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's current large balance sheet is a decision of the existing FOMC. If unemployment drops further, spending remains strong, and inflation doesn't decline, the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged this year [1] - Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 through bond and equity financing for cloud infrastructure expansion, but it already has $95 billion in debt [1] - Red杉 Capital partner thinks SpaceX's valuation has soared from $36 billion in 2019 to $800 billion, and Musk's business value is still underestimated [1] - Tesla will unveil the third - generation humanoid robot, with a planned annual production of 1 million units. The Model S/X production line at the Fremont factory will be converted, and mass production is expected to start by the end of 2026 [1] - The market interprets Japan's statement on "enhancing economic resilience to exchange - rate fluctuations" as a cautious downgrade of direct yen intervention. The yen faces a rising risk of a short - term decline [1] - Due to inflation stickiness and strong employment, the market is re - evaluating the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike this week has risen to 73%, and the 10 - year bond yield is approaching 5% [1] - Japan officially confirmed no actual intervention in the foreign - exchange market in January. The future of the yen is uncertain as the US denies coordinated action, and Japan may face stronger intervention pressure after the election [1] Global Economic Logic - Bridgewater's Dalio warns that the US is at risk of civil war, and investors should be aware of capital - control risks [2] - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of Fed nominee chair Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - Geopolitical actions by the US, such as seizing Venezuelan oil and attempting to buy Greenland, bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - Nomura says Fed - related uncertainties may peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while low - and middle - income families cut back [2] - TSMC's Q4 performance and 2026 revenue guidance signal the continuation of the AI boom [2] - Musk hopes to achieve full rocket reusability with Starship this year, which could reduce space - entry costs by 100 times to below $100 per pound [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2] - Wash's proposed combination of rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in Fed policy, creating expectations of strong liquidity contraction for equity assets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the rules of capital flow are being rewritten, prioritizing security over efficiency and sovereignty over circulation, with regionalization replacing globalization [1][7] - Li Ka-shing's withdrawal from the Panama port reflects a broader trend of strategic retreat from Europe and the US, highlighting the heightened scrutiny of critical infrastructure investments due to national security concerns [3][7] - Meta's acquisition of Manus faces obstacles, revealing a new reality in tech investments where data sovereignty acts as a barrier, with regulatory concerns over biometric data and privacy issues [5][7] Group 2 - The investment landscape is increasingly complex, with rising variables and a shift towards capital controls in the new era, indicating that the previous era of unrestricted foreign investment has ended [7] - The Panama Canal, as a critical trade route, is now subject to increased regulatory barriers in Latin America, reflecting a global trend of heightened investment scrutiny [3][7] - The tech industry is entering a phase of "forked development," necessitating multinational companies to adjust their expansion strategies in response to regulatory challenges [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is attributed to China's strong production capacity and economic resilience, making it a long-term trend rather than a short-term fluctuation [11][10]. Group 1: Currency Appreciation Factors - The RMB has strengthened from approximately 7.4 to 6.99 against the USD, driven by China's significant production capacity, which is now over 53% of the world's top production capacity [8][10]. - The essence of currency value lies in its backing by real production capacity rather than gold or credit [5][6]. - The RMB's appreciation is seen as a natural outcome of the disconnect between currency issuance and the underlying production capacity [8][10]. Group 2: Economic Implications of RMB Appreciation - Short-term fluctuations may occur, but the long-term benefits of RMB appreciation outweigh the drawbacks, particularly in reducing import costs for energy and raw materials [19][21]. - The trade surplus has increased from $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion, indicating that the RMB's appreciation does not negatively impact exports, as Chinese goods remain irreplaceable in global supply chains [21][23]. - The long-term value of RMB appreciation includes enhancing its internationalization, allowing China to leverage its currency for global transactions [25]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - All RMB-denominated assets are expected to become highly sought after as the currency appreciates, leading to increased asset values [27][29]. - The current market trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks reflect a similar pattern to the RMB appreciation period from 2008 to 2015, suggesting a robust foundation for future growth [29][30]. - The outlook for RMB assets, including Chinese government bonds and quality real estate, is positive, with expectations of significant upward trends despite potential short-term volatility [32][34].