当市场仍沉浸在特朗普新政的乐观预期中时，第899条款如同一把悬在投资者头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。 一旦落下，其破坏力或将远超市场当前的想象。 美银和高盛最新报告详细阐述了899条款的更多细节。 899条款（全称"对不公平外国税收的执行措施"）包含在最近由众议院通过的"大漂亮法案"(One Big Beautiful Bill Act，简称OBBBA)中。 根据美国银行的分析， 该条款旨在对被认为对美国实体征收"不公平/歧视性"税收的特定国家的非美国 个人、公司(非美国居民拥有50%以上股权的公司)和政府征收"报复性"税收。 与类似条款(如891条)不同，后者依赖行政部门认定"歧视性"税收的自由裁量权，而899条款预先定义了 某些被视为"不公平"的税收类型。 周三，据媒体报道，安联保险CIO Ludovic Subran在接受采访时表示， 一旦第899条款实施，市场将迎来"重大恐慌时刻"，这将触发股市10%的抛售、美元5%的暴跌，以及 美债收益率50个基点的上升。 在5月众议院通过的立法中， 第899条款几乎没有引起市场关注，但Subran认为这正是人们没有花足够 时间研究的条款。华尔街各大机构警告，这一条款将改变 ...

Group 1 - Allianz SE's Chief Investment Officer Ludovic Subran warns that the foreign tax provision in Trump's fiscal plan could lead to a 5% drop in the dollar and significant stock market volatility [1] - The provision, introduced as Section 899 in legislation passed by the House, would increase tax rates on individuals and businesses from countries deemed to have "discriminatory tax policies" [1] - Subran predicts a 10% decline in the stock market and a 0.5 percentage point rise in U.S. Treasury yields if the provision is implemented, indicating a potential "major panic moment" for the market [1] Group 2 - The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the provision could generate $116.3 billion in revenue over the next decade but may ultimately reduce annual tax revenue by $12.9 billion in 2033 and 2034 [2] - Senate Republican leaders are reviewing the potential impacts of the provision before passing it, with some expressing hope that it will serve as a deterrent rather than being enacted [2] - Subran notes that further capital outflows would contradict Trump's policies aimed at encouraging long-term investment in the U.S., which may explain the market's reluctance to price in this risk [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Allianz's Chief Investment Officer Ludovic Subran warns that a specific tax provision in Trump's fiscal plan could lead to a 10% drop in the stock market and a 5% depreciation of the dollar if enacted [1] Group 1: Tax Provision Impact - The tax provision, known as Section 899, was passed in the House of Representatives in May and targets countries with "discriminatory" tax policies [1] - Subran describes the potential implementation of this provision as a "huge and terrifying moment" for the market [1] - The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has expressed concerns, estimating that the provision could generate $116.3 billion in revenue over the next decade but ultimately reduce annual tax revenue by $12.9 billion in 2033 and 2034 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Subran predicts that the stock market could experience a sell-off of 10% and the dollar could depreciate by 5% if the tax provision is enacted [1] - He also anticipates a 0.5 percentage point increase in U.S. Treasury yields as a consequence of the provision [1] - Foreign investors hold a significant portion of U.S. long-term securities, including stocks and bonds, which could be affected by these changes [1]

上海的股价显示屏（Reuters） 日方提出要求的契机是2024年1月华夏野村日经225ETF一度暂停交易。日本财务省预期，QDII投资额度 得以扩大，流入日股ETF的资金也将随之增加。与购买土地或企业并购不同，投资日股ETF的经济安保 风险较低…… 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）于5月13日获悉，日本财务省已向中国政府提出放宽资本管制的 要求。中国房地产市场低迷和经济停滞导致有魅力的投资标的减少，贸易顺差带来的资金在中国国内过 剩。此举意在敦促中国扩大海外证券投资额度，促使资金流向日本股市等。 出于稳定人民币汇率等目的，中国实施严格的资本管制，国内银行及资产管理公司不能随意投资海外股 票和债券。仅允许符合一定条件的QDII在分配的投资额度内进行海外投资。 中国国家外汇管理局的数据显示，4月底的QDII额度上限总计为1677.89亿美元，2024年6月底以来一直 保持不变。 日方提出要求的契机是2024年1月在A股上市的日本股票ETF（交易所交易基金）"华夏野村日经 225ETF"一度暂停交易。在中国的个人投资者中，日本股票的人气过于旺盛，交易价格大幅高于基准价 格（每份的净值）。价格暴跌可能会导致投资者 ...

Group 1 - The EU is preparing to implement capital controls and tariffs against Russia to counter Hungary's opposition to sanctions [1] - The European Commission has informed member states that most sanctions, including the freezing of €200 billion in Russian state assets, can be transferred to different legal bases to bypass Hungary's veto [1] - The EU aims to maintain economic pressure on Russia while pursuing diplomatic efforts for a proposed ceasefire agreement and direct peace talks with Ukraine [1] Group 2 - In January, the EU imposed tariffs on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, showcasing how existing sanctions can be transformed into trade measures [2] - The European Commission plans to propose legislation next month to ban new contracts for Russian natural gas and spot market contracts, aiming for a complete phase-out by 2027 [2] - Concerns have been raised by EU diplomats regarding potential legal disputes arising from banning Russian gas without formal sanctions, prompting calls for legally sound new sanctions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is preparing to implement capital controls and tariffs to maintain sanctions against Russia, particularly in response to Hungary's potential veto on extending economic sanctions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 1: Sanctions and Economic Measures - The EU has previously imposed economic sanctions on Russia as a response to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - A significant portion of the sanctions, including the freezing of €200 billion in Russian state assets, may be transferred to a different legal basis to circumvent Hungary's veto [1] - The proposed workaround requires only a majority agreement from EU member states to extend the sanctions [1] Group 2: Proposed Trade Measures - Capital controls are being considered to prevent cash inflow into Russia [1] - Tariffs are also mentioned as one of the trade measures that the European Commission has discussed in recent weeks [1]

乌克兰央行行长安德烈·皮什尼(Andriy Pyshnyi)周三在接受媒体采访时表示，在全球贸易分 裂和乌克兰与欧洲联系日益紧密的背景下，乌克兰正开始考虑摆脱美元，可能将该国货币格里 夫纳与欧元更紧密地挂钩。 皮什尼在一份邮件声明中称，"欧盟在确保我们国防能力方面作用的加强、全球市场的更大波 动性以及全球贸易碎片化的可能性，正迫使央行重新评估是否应将欧元而非美元，作为乌克兰 格里夫纳的参考货币。" 皮什尼补充称，"这项工作很复杂，需要高质量、多方面的准备。" 这是乌克兰官员就可能发生的汇率重大变革发表的最直接的评论。目前，美元在国际贸易中仍 占有压倒性的主导地位，并占据了全球外汇储备中的大部分。 沙特里亚尔、港元等非美货币 均与美元挂钩。 弃美投欧 皮什尼表示，虽然美元交易继续主导着外汇市场的各个环节，但欧元交易份额在多数领域一直 在上升，尽管"迄今为止上升幅度不大"。 乌克兰于1996年推出格里夫纳，过去几十年来一直使用美元作为参考货币。2022年2月俄乌 冲突爆发后，乌克兰央行立即实施了资本管制，并将格里夫纳的官方汇率定为1美元兑29格里 夫纳。后来，由于财政失衡加剧，格里夫纳被迫贬值。 2023年10月 ...

以下文章来源于财联社 ，作者牛占林 财联社 . 财联社是上海报业集团主管主办，定位资本市场报道财经通讯社，以"准确、快速、权威、专业"为准则，提供7x24小时金融信息服务。 来源|财联社 4月15日在美国政府发动全面贸易战之后，全球金融市场风雨飘摇，但未曾想到的是，俄罗斯卢布成为了今年全球表现最佳的货币，涨幅甚至远远超 过了黄金这一传统避险资产。 数据显示，今年迄今，俄罗斯卢布兑美元在场外交易中上涨了38%。美元因美国总统特朗普不断升级的关税战而面临巨大压力，卢布却因许多俄罗斯 独有的因素而受到支撑，其中包括创纪录的高利率。 当然，美国对俄罗斯政策的缓和迹象重新激发了卢布在套利交易中的吸引力。Istar资本研究与投资组合管理主管Iskander Lutsko表示，尽管制裁风 险仍然存在，外国投资者仍在转向那些与俄罗斯保持良好关系的国家，以获取高收益的卢布资产。 Lutsko补充说，除此之外，俄罗斯企业渴望利用成本低得多的人民币贷款，为成本高昂的本币债务进行再融资，这推动了更多的外币兑换成卢布。 与此同时，美元指数跌至六个月低点，因为特朗普在关税政策上的最新反复无常，加剧了投资者对美国资产的不安情绪，并削弱了美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European credit rating agency Scope warns that the United States may face a credit downgrade if ongoing trade wars undermine trust in the dollar or if extreme measures, such as capital controls, are implemented by Trump [1] Group 1 - Continuous trade wars could weaken confidence in the US dollar [1] - Potential extreme measures by Trump, including capital controls, could lead to a credit downgrade [1]