图片来源：中国外汇交易中心 上周（11月24日至28日）美元指数高位震荡后下挫，美国零售数据疲软强化市场对美联储降息预期，美元指数周内跌破100关口，全周累计下跌0.71%，11 月以来跌幅为0.29%。非美货币方面，因美元走势疲弱，欧元、英镑、日元、澳元兑美元均有所走高。其中，欧元兑美元连续五个交易日上涨，全周涨幅为 0.76。 新华财经上海12月1日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，11月28日当周三大人民币汇率指数均下挫，CFETS人民币汇率指数报97.92，按周跌 0.3；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报104.47，按周跌0.19；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.46，按周跌0.14。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 97.92 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 104.47 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 92.46 | 在中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛看来，今年，在国际经济形势不确定性增加的背景下，人民币不跌反涨，反映了中国经济回升向好、美元指数走弱等多重 因素的综合影响，预计上述因素仍将对未来人民币汇率走 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the expected fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate in 2025 and 2026, highlighting the central bank's effective liquidity management that helps mitigate risks [1] Group 1: 2025 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The appreciation of the RMB in 2025 is driven by two main factors: cracks in USD credit and the Federal Reserve's easing measures. However, the appreciation expectation is not straightforward, with significant volatility observed [2] - In April 2025, trade frictions led to a depreciation expectation exceeding 7.5, while the onset of the Fed's rate cut cycle in September brought the appreciation expectation closer to 7.0. This reflects investor uncertainty in a still fragile internal economic environment [2] - A key factor supporting the RMB's appreciation is the reversal of foreign trade enterprises' willingness to settle in RMB. The weakening belief in a strong USD has led to a historic level of cross-border capital inflow, primarily driven by these enterprises [3] Group 2: Central Bank's Management and Policy - The central bank's management of exchange rate controls is described as "brilliant," effectively balancing the optimism of currency holders and the hesitance of currency exchangers. This includes lowering swap market premiums to manage foreign capital inflow and guiding domestic expectations through the central parity rate [4] - The central bank aims to align domestic and foreign pricing expectations, achieving a "three-price unification" where both domestic and foreign asset pricing converge towards the central bank's expectations [4] Group 3: 2026 RMB Exchange Rate Expectations - The article raises the question of whether global easing will continue into 2026, noting a significant "K-shaped" economic divergence in the U.S. This divergence affects high-net-worth individuals and new borrowers differently, impacting credit expansion and overall economic conditions [5] - The central bank's willingness to allow the RMB to break the 7.0 mark is questioned, with indications that it is managing the pace of appreciation through historical low swap premiums. The central bank's focus appears to be on fundamental factors rather than credit-driven factors [6] - The future decoupling of the RMB exchange rate from the USD index is anticipated, with both fundamental and policy support for the RMB to break the 7.0 level. However, the article emphasizes that fundamental changes will be the core variable supporting long-term RMB strength [6]