下游兑现去产能，工业硅反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 工业硅周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅低位反弹，主因多晶硅去产能进入实质性阶 段，硅料行业供需结构持续改善，中国工业增加值同比增 速稳健。供应来看，新疆地区开工率维持88%的相对高位， 西南地区枯水期开工率较弱，内蒙和甘肃产量重心下移， 供应端继续收敛；从需求侧来看，多晶硅龙头厂家有大幅 调整现货价格计划，市场仍以执行历史订单为主；硅片价 格逼近现金成本线，二三线企业低价抛货现象大幅减少； 电池片由于近期银价大幅上涨，成本压力攀升一线企业释 放涨价信号；组件 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market opened lower on September 24, 2025, with the new energy sector showing strength, particularly the ChiNext New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368), which rose by 1.12% [1] - The multi-crystalline silicon N-type raw material price ranged from 50.3 to 55 yuan per kilogram, with a price index of 52.44 yuan per kilogram, indicating a slight upward shift in transaction prices [1] - The multi-crystalline silicon industry is entering a capacity reduction cycle, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics due to consolidation among leading firms [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) is the largest ETF tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, with a maximum scale of 824 million yuan as of September 22, 2025 [2] - The ETF has the lowest fee rate, with a combined management and custody fee of only 0.2% [2] - The ETF's daily average trading volume over the past month reached 60.31 million yuan, indicating strong market interest [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The multi-crystalline silicon price index indicates a preference for resources priced at 52 yuan or below, while larger manufacturers generally quote prices above 53 yuan [1] - There is an expectation of slight production declines in October due to the seasonal water scarcity affecting production in Sichuan [1] - The top six manufacturers in the domestic multi-crystalline silicon industry account for nearly 85% of total capacity, facilitating potential mergers and acquisitions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing fluctuations, with polysilicon futures showing a significant decline of 2.41% to 50,310.0 yuan/ton [1] Supply - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a notice regarding the special energy conservation inspection tasks for the polysilicon industry for 2025, which strengthens the expectations for capacity reduction in polysilicon production [1] Demand - Downstream silicon wafer companies are maintaining stable prices, and there is an increase in export demand due to expectations of reduced export tax rebates. Production schedules are expected to increase this month, with prices smoothly transmitting to battery cells. However, recent price reductions in mainstream component specifications raise concerns about end-user acceptance [1] Market Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is expected to remain a key area of focus, with support from lower spot prices. Downstream silicon wafers and battery cells are anticipated to rise in price, but components have not yet adjusted. There is an increase in warehouse receipts, leading to a cooling market sentiment, with short-term expectations of high-level fluctuations [1]