Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report [2] - Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team [1] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Strategy Recommendations - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Strategy Recommendations: - Alumina: Suggested to wait and see [5] - Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum): Suggested to go long on dips [5] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Suggested to go long on dips or use the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [5] Group 3: Core Views - Despite inventory accumulation during the peak season, due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut and the opening of domestic policy windows, it's recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [4] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year yields), the US dollar index, the US Treasury real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan [7][8] 2. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, with prices in Shanxi and Henan remaining stable. Mining activities are restricted by safety supervision, environmental inspections, and the rainy season. Since mid - August, alumina plants have increasingly used imported ores [11] - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.1 per dry ton week - on - week to $74.9 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea supports the price, but the sharp drop in alumina prices exerts downward pressure. Long - term contract price negotiations for the fourth quarter will start in mid - to late September [11] 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 9,795 tons, an increase of 40 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 85.15% [15] - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 3,010.2 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 yuan per ton [15] - The national alumina inventory was 371.9 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons week - on - week. The alumina industry is in a high - stable production state, with new capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north gradually entering a stable production state [15] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.2 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 4,442.9 tons, an increase of 2 tons week - on - week. The remaining capacity of Baise Yinhai's technical renovation project continued to resume production [22] 5. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum futures inventory, and London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum inventory from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30][31] 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The starting rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.4% week - on - week to 55.9% [34] - The four - ministry joint notice on standardizing investment promotion behaviors requires the cleanup of local government's illegal tax rebates. The decline in aluminum prices has increased the enthusiasm of scrap aluminum traders to sell, and with the continuous mild recovery of the downstream, orders have recovered moderately, and the starting rate of recycled aluminum alloy has continued to rise [34] 7. Downstream Start - up - The starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1% week - on - week to 62.2% [45] - Aluminum profiles: The starting rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 0.6% week - on - week to 54.6%. Industrial profiles, especially photovoltaic and automotive profiles, showed different trends, while the construction profile market remained sluggish [45] - Aluminum strips: The starting rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 68.2%. High aluminum prices at the beginning of the week suppressed downstream orders, and the increase in scrap aluminum prices may affect future starting rates [45] - Aluminum cables: The starting rate of domestic cable leading enterprises remained stable at 65.2%. Enterprises focused on power grid orders and some photovoltaic alloy cable orders, and purchased raw materials based on rigid demand due to high aluminum prices [49] - Primary aluminum alloy: The starting rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 57.6%. Short - term procurement slowdown in the downstream has affected the starting rate, and although most enterprises are optimistic about the peak season in September, some are more cautious about short - term expansion [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall idea is to go long on dips, considering the slowdown of the US labor market, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the loosening of Trump's tariff policy, the arrival of the domestic downstream demand peak season, and the approaching inventory inflection point. A long - AD short - AL arbitrage strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: Guinea's bauxite prices rose by $0.2 per dry ton to $75 due to the rainy season and mining复产 uncertainties. Alumina operating capacity increased by 1.7 million tons to 96.75 million tons, and inventory rose by 112,000 tons to 3.609 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 30,000 tons to 44.399 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate rose by 1% to 61.7%. Aluminum ingot and bar social inventory increased but at a slower pace. The secondary casting aluminum alloy industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders, and new policies pressured production [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for casting aluminum alloy, it is recommended to go long on dips or use the long - AD short - AL strategy [4]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and the RMB exchange rate, but no specific analysis is provided [6][7]. 3.3. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply tightened, with stable prices in Shanxi and Henan due to strengthened safety supervision, environmental inspections, and rainfall. Guinea's bauxite prices rose due to the rainy season and复产 uncertainties [10]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 96.75 million tons (up 1.7 million tons week - on - week), and the开工 rate was 84.4%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,101 yuan/ton (down 82.4 yuan/ton week - on - week). National alumina inventory was 3.609 million tons (up 112,000 tons week - on - week). Newly put - into - production capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north entered a stable - production state [14]. 3.5. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume, but no specific analysis is provided [16][17][18][19]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 45.232 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.399 million tons (up 30,000 tons week - on - week). The operating capacity increased steadily, with the resumption of production in Guizhou and the commissioning of replacement capacity in Yunnan Aluminum Yixin basically completed, and the remaining 50,000 - ton capacity of Baise Silver Sea's technical renovation project continuing to resume production [21]. 3.7. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on aluminum rod processing fees, Shanghai aluminum futures prices,动力煤 prices, and aluminum import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [25]. 3.8. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of aluminum bar, aluminum ingot, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum inventories, but no specific analysis is provided [27][28][29][30]. 3.9. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The开工 rate of secondary aluminum alloy leading enterprises rose by 1.8% to 55.3%. New policies pressured production, with some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi receiving tax - refund termination notices and some planning to implement new policies on September 1st. In September, the secondary aluminum industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders [33]. 3.10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices, aluminum ingot and aluminum alloy price differences, aluminum alloy futures forward curves, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [32][38][39]. 3.11. Downstream开工 - The开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose by 1% to 61.7%. - **Aluminum Profiles**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 53%. Industrial profiles' export demand increased due to the cancellation of component tax rebates, and automotive profiles' production was stable. Construction profiles' demand remained sluggish [46]. - **Aluminum Plates and Strips**: The开工 rate rose by 1.2% to 68.6%. With the arrival of the peak season, both domestic and foreign trade orders increased, and enterprises' willingness to stock raw materials and finished products strengthened [46]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 64.8%. Although new orders were limited, existing orders provided support. State Grid orders were concentrated in the second half of the year, leading to different recovery rhythms in different regions [50]. - **Primary Aluminum Alloys**: The开工 rate rose by 0.2% to 56.6%. The traditional consumption peak season started, but the resumption of production in the aluminum bar and other primary processing sectors continued to divert molten aluminum, resulting in a slow recovery at the beginning of the peak season [50].