Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping 10.40% to 133,200.0 yuan/ton, marking a new low since January 6 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 5, lithium carbonate futures hit a new low, with multiple contracts reaching the limit down [1] - The volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market is at a historical high, with limited further upward movement expected [1] Group 2: Export Data - Chile's customs data indicates that lithium carbonate exports to China reached 16,950 tons in January 2026, a month-on-month increase of 44.81% [1] - Notably, lithium sulfate exports to China surged to 27,834 tons, reflecting a staggering month-on-month increase of 475.32% [1] Group 3: Industry Demand - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the estimated wholesale of new energy vehicles in January 2026 reached 900,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] - The reduction in purchase tax incentives has led to early consumption pull-forward effects, yet the industry still achieved positive growth at the beginning of the year [1] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on volatility selling strategies as a potential opportunity in the current market [1] - From a medium to long-term perspective, the demand growth logic in the three downstream application areas—energy storage, new energy passenger vehicles, and commercial vehicles—remains fundamentally unchanged, supporting the long-term value of lithium carbonate [1] - The company recommends seizing market pullback opportunities and adopting a buy-on-dips strategy [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, with Venezuela's production increase in progress and Iran's situation in a state of low - intensity friction, there is a bottom for oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [2]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. Although there is short - term negative pressure, due to geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long on dips [5]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, the chemical sector may oscillate or decline after the rise. Rubber is in a weak seasonal period. A neutral - to - bearish approach is recommended, trading short - term according to the market. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling strategy is suggested, and partial positions can be established for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment provide some support, in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The PE valuation still has downward space, but the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has been reduced. The supply is relatively stable in the first half of 2026, and demand is in a seasonal trough [23]. - For polypropylene, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction under the background of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term outlook is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation period. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further production cuts in China [34]. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 4.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.93% decline, at 446.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures of related refined oil closed down 43.00 yuan/ton (1.57%) at 2692.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.35%) at 3165.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels to 203.73 million barrels, a 1.01% decline; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.60 million barrels to 93.96 million barrels, a 1.73% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 96.25 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.29 million barrels to 190.21 million barrels, a 1.22% increase [1]. - **Strategy View**: With the US energy minister's visit to Venezuela, Venezuela's production increase is in progress. Iran's situation is in a state of low - intensity friction. There is a bottom for oil prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price in Jiangsu changed by 37 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton in Lunan, - 5 yuan/ton in Henan, 0 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 10 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The main futures contract changed by 25.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2304 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 35 yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. Although there is short - term negative pressure, due to geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long on dips [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton in Henan, 20 yuan/ton in Hebei, 0 yuan/ton in Hubei, 0 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 0 yuan/ton in Shanxi, and 0 yuan/ton in the Northeast. The overall basis was reported at - 50 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, closing at 1790 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy View**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The chemical sector was oscillating. Butadiene rubber rose, while RU declined. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of long positions in the chemical sector by macro funds, expected increase in the cost of naphtha and butadiene due to the expected naphtha consumption tax policy, and expected reduction in butadiene production, as well as increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea. The inventory in East China ports decreased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes in limited production increase in Southeast Asian rubber forests, seasonal price increase in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side believes in uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of January 22, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.70%, 0.14 percentage points lower than last week and 20.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.27%, 0.92 percentage points higher than last week and 5.34 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.3 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton (1.3%) increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy View**: The chemical sector may oscillate or decline after the rise. Rubber is in a weak seasonal period. A neutral - to - bearish approach is recommended, trading short - term according to the market. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling strategy is suggested, and partial positions can be established for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 48 yuan to 4911 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 201 (+ 8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2475 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 603 (- 2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous month; the calcium - carbide - based process was 80%, unchanged from the previous month; the ethylene - based process was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous month. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous month. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 million tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 million tons (+ 3.3) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment provide some support, in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5980 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decline; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5990 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decline; the pure benzene basis was - 10 yuan/ton, a 48 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price of styrene was 7900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7649 yuan/ton, a 53 - yuan/ton decline; the basis was 251 yuan/ton, a 103 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 192.75 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton decline. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 123.3 yuan/ton, an 11.6 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products in the demand side was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6899 yuan/ton, a 36 - yuan/ton decline, and the spot price was 6830 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 69 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 4.51 million tons to 35.03 million tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 2.92 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline from the previous month. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month [22]. - **Strategy View**: The futures price has fallen. The PE valuation still has downward space, but the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has been reduced. The supply is relatively stable in the first half of 2026, and demand is in a seasonal trough [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6709 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan/ton decline, and the spot price was 6580 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 129 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 3.67 million tons to 43.1 million tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 1.08 million tons to 19.39 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons to 7.06 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline from the previous month. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction under the background of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 236 yuan to 7286 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 27 US dollars to 903 US dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (+ 20), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan (+ 18). The PX operating load in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous month; the Asian operating load was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous month. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted. Overseas, the South Korean GS plant restarted. The PTA operating load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 21.5 million tons of PX to China in the first half of January, a 6.8 - million - ton decline from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a 6 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 357 US dollars (- 1), South Korean PX - MX was 158 US dollars (+ 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 98 US dollars (+ 12) [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain a inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term outlook is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 180 yuan to 5258 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 125 yuan to 5225 yuan. The basis was - 79 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 16 yuan (- 14). The PTA operating load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. The downstream operating load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous month. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, a 4 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee increased by 17 yuan to 455 yuan, and the on - market processing fee decreased by 25 yuan to 478 yuan [30]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation period. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 56 yuan to 3938 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 44 yuan to 3843 yuan. The basis was - 119 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 92 yuan (+ 5). The ethylene glycol operating load was 73%, a 1.4% decline from the previous month, of which the synthetic - gas - based process was 79.4%, a 0.8% decline; the ethylene - based process operating load was 69.5%, a 1.7% decline. The downstream operating load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous month. The terminal text

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the current valuation of methanol is relatively low, and its outlook for the next year is expected to improve marginally, with limited downside potential. Despite short - term negative pressures, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has created certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips, and this view is maintained from last week [16] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Market Trend**: A chart of the methanol index is shown, but no specific trend analysis in text is provided [13] - **Factor Assessment and Strategy**: In terms of supply, overseas methanol production starts to slow down seasonally, while domestic production remains high; in terms of trade flow, the previous high - volume overseas shipments are arriving at ports, and current overseas shipments are seasonally decreasing, with a neutral outlook. In terms of demand, the operating rates of MTO, olefins, and formaldehyde remain high, but the low valuation of MTO lacks obvious driving forces, and downstream users are hesitant about the current methanol price, limiting its upside, also with a neutral outlook. Regarding inventory, the reduction of port inventory at high levels has slowed down, and it is expected to accumulate again later; factory inventory remains stable, with a neutral - to - bearish outlook. For cost, the replenishment of thermal coal has fallen short of expectations, and its price has started to decline from a high level; oil and gas prices maintain a weak oscillation with expected limited volatility, with a neutral outlook. The overall strategy is to buy on dips [16] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Basis and Spread**: Charts of the methanol term structure, Jiangsu methanol price, methanol 01 basis, and methanol 1 - 5 spread are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [20][22][24] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Charts of the trading volume and open interest of the methanol 01 contract, as well as the total trading volume and open interest of methanol, are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [29][32] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and thermal coal prices in Ordos and Qinhuangdao are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [43][45] - **Production Profit**: Charts of the profit calculations for coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia, Southwest gas - based methanol production, and other regions are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [48][49] - **Port Inventory**: Charts of port inventory, East China port inventory, South China port inventory, and methanol social inventory are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [54][56] - **Regional Inventory**: Charts of factory inventory, factory inventory in the northwest region, East China regional inventory, and Ningbo port inventory are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [62][63] 4. Supply Side - **Shipping Schedule Monitoring**: Charts of global methanol shipments and arrivals, Middle East shipments, and Asia - Pacific arrivals are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [70] - **Upstream Production and Operating Rate**: Charts of domestic and overseas methanol operating rates and weekly production are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [76][74] - **Import Volume**: Charts of import volume, imports from Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [78][81] - **Arrival Volume**: Charts of the arrival volume in East China, South China, and the whole of China are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [86][88] - **International Spread**: Charts of import profit, spreads between China and Southeast Asia, the US Gulf, and Europe are presented, with the regional spread showing weak ports and strong inland areas. Also, charts of freight rates are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [94][96][106] 5. Demand Side - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Charts of olefin operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang MTO operating rates, and the profits of Fude and Xingxing are presented, as well as the production profits of various PP production processes, MTO - related spreads. However, no specific analysis is provided [114][118][121] - **Traditional Downstream**: Charts of the capacity utilization rate of 1,4 - butanediol, the operating rates and profits of DMF, DMC, acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and the inventory of downstream methanol users are presented. Also, charts of the price ratios of methanol to related products are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [130][133][157] 6. Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: Charts of methanol option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [161] 7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Methanol Industry Chain and Research Framework**: Charts of the methanol industry chain and the methanol research framework analysis mind - map are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [165][167]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. - For methanol, considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. - For urea, with the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. - For rubber, with its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 2.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.52%, at 440.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 20.00 yuan/ton, or 0.79%, to 2542.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 12.00 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, to 3090.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.09 million barrels to 7.07 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 2.50 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.69 million barrels to 8.77 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.82 million barrels to 18.33 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 9 yuan/ton, in Lunan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10.00 yuan/ton to 2209 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 12 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: Considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 29 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 4 yuan/ton to 1779 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy View**: With the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded in a volatile manner. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 125.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 tons [7][8]. - **Strategy View**: With its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 64 yuan to 4743 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 243 (+ 4) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, flat month - on - month. Factory inventory was 31.1 tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 tons (+ 3) [12]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5675 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 5805 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The spot price of styrene fell 50 yuan/ton to 7350 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 7203 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.17 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons, and trader inventory remained unchanged [17]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6485 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons [19]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 26 yuan to 7206 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 888 US dollars. The Chinese PX load was 89.4%, down 1.5% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 80.6%, down 0.6% month - on - month. From mid - to early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons [23]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 10 yuan to 5154 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5085 yuan. The PTA load was 76.9%, down 1.3% month - on - month. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4 tons [26]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 15 yuan to 3689 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 31 yuan to 3570 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [29]. - **Strategy View**: The current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate main contract surged by 8% amid supply-side disruptions, with concerns over production resumption and stricter environmental regulations in Jiangxi province [3][9]. Supply Side - There is no official announcement for the resumption of production at the Jiangxi site, with the first environmental assessment already publicized and further processes required, potentially delaying resumption until after the Spring Festival [3][9]. - Jiangxi province faces heightened environmental requirements, leading to increased industrial waste treatment costs, which may force smaller producers to exit the market due to inability to bear these costs [3][9]. - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with specific increases in various extraction methods: spodumene by 35 tons to 13,959 tons, lepidolite by 20 tons to 2,956 tons, brine by 40 tons to 3,185 tons, and recycled materials by 20 tons to 2,435 tons [10][11]. Demand Side - In January 2026, the production of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 5% to 78,180 tons, while lithium iron phosphate production is projected to decline by 10% to 363,400 tons [10][11]. - The production of ternary power batteries is anticipated to drop by 6.15% to 28.7 GWh, and lithium iron power is expected to decrease by 9.77% to 90.01 GWh, while lithium iron energy storage is projected to increase by 0.99% to 63.15 GWh [10][11]. Inventory - The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,458 tons to 36,540 tons, while other segments increased by 2,080 tons to 55,020 tons, and upstream inventory rose by 715 tons to 18,382 tons [10][11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait for the verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [1][2] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving. With limited downside space and geopolitical expectations from Iran's instability, there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [5] - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production in late January, bearish fundamentals are approaching. Therefore, take profits on rallies [8] - For rubber, with a strong macro environment and weak seasonality, adopt a neutral stance. If RU2605 falls below 16000, switch to a short - term short strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10][13] - For PVC, the industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand in China. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price, while in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts [14][15] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17][18] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed. Long the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19][20] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [21][23] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price in the medium term [25][26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory depletion. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [28][29] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory - building cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut in the medium term. Be cautious about the rebound risk in the short term [30][31] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 7.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.78%, to 445.50 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 148.00 yuan/ton, or 6.07%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.51%, to 3098.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased by 0.83 million barrels (13.46%), 0.45 million barrels (19.95%), 1.69 million barrels (19.27%), and 2.97 million barrels (17.28%) respectively [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait for the verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [1][2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by - 3 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, and - 2.5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract rose 23.00 yuan/ton to 2288 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 45 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving. With limited downside space and geopolitical expectations from Iran's instability, there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [5] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was - 74 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 40 yuan/ton to 1814 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production in late January, bearish fundamentals are approaching. Therefore, take profits on rallies [8] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated strongly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 8, 2026, the full - steel tire operating rate in Shandong was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from last week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating rate was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from last week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, up 3.1 tons (2.5%). Spot prices of some rubber products increased [10][11][12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With a strong macro environment and weak seasonality, adopt a neutral stance. If RU2605 falls below 16000, switch to a short - term short strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4660 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 126 (- 5) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.7%, up 1%. Factory and social inventories increased [14] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand in China. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price, while in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts [15] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5455 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5707 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene decreased by 123 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract rose 88 yuan/ton to 7116 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 138 yuan/ton. Supply - side upstream operating rate rose 0.22% to 70.92%, and Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 13.23 tons. Demand - side three - S weighted operating rate rose 0.11% to 40.90% [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract rose 54 yuan/ton to 6820 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6780 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 24 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate rose 0.04% to 83.39%. Production enterprise and trader inventories increased. The downstream average operating rate fell 0.35% to 40.8%. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 1 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed. Long the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract rose 45 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6505 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 15 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate fell 1.03% to 73.85%. Production enterprise inventory decreased, while trader and port inventories increased. The downstream average operating rate fell 0.48% to 52.76%. The LL - PP spread widened by 9 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 20 yuan to 7262 yuan, and PX CFR fell 2 dollars to 897 dollars. The basis was - 12 (+ 6) yuan, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 32 (+ 6) yuan. China's PX load was 90.9%, up 0.3%, and Asia's was 81.2%, up 0.3%. Some overseas and domestic device conditions changed. PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1%. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, up 0.7 tons year - on - year. Inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, down 5 tons month - on - month [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price in the medium term [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 24 yuan to 5116 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 15 yuan to 5075 yuan. The basis was - 70 (- 1) yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 46 (- 6) yuan. PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1%. Downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Terminal elastic yarn and loom loads decreased. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, down 2.5 tons. Spot processing fee rose 14 yuan to 319 yuan, and futures processing fee fell 11 yuan to 352 yuan [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory depletion. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 52 yuan to 3867 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 25 yuan to 3711 yuan. The basis was - 144 (- 3) yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 (+ 6) yuan. The supply - side ethylene glycol load was 73.9%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas device conditions changed. Downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Terminal elastic yarn and loom loads decreased. Import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and East China departure on January 13 was 1.57 tons. Port inventory was 80.2 tons, up 7.7 tons. Naphtha - based profit was - 967 yuan, domestic ethylene - based profit was - 848 yuan, and coal - based profit was 283 yuan [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory - building cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut in the medium term. Be cautious about the rebound risk in the short term [31]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term, attention should be paid to the callback risk as the recent decline in coal prices brings some callback pressure to the coal chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the supply - demand surplus pressure, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On December 5, compared with December 4, UR01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.89%), UR05 by 9 yuan/ton (-0.52%), and UR09 by 11 yuan/ton (-0.62%). [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Among them, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58% and 0.59% respectively), the price in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.64%), and the prices in Henan, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged. [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton (0.97%), and in Henan by 10 yuan/ton (0.38%). The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1696 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1696 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1672 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton, and the position was 200,353 lots. [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the CESCO copper conference shows that institutions and the industry generally support buying on dips. The copper price is expected to move up, ranging between $10,500 and $11,300, driven by strong domestic demand and overseas demand for power grids and computing. However, the potential outflow of North American copper inventories due to the disappearance of US tariffs is a risk factor [1]. - For aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded, with significant inventory reduction. It may fluctuate in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1]. - For zinc, the price has fluctuated this week. The supply side faces challenges with declining TC and potential production cuts in December. The demand side is weak both at home and abroad. The export window is open, and the price may not fall deeply. It's advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, look for reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage for the 01 - 03 spread [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising. With ongoing policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities can be monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, the supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Given the potential policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities are worth attention [3]. - For lead, the price has declined this week, with improved sales. The supply is abundant, and demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,200. It's advisable to observe the increase in warehouse receipts and the price support of waste batteries [5]. - For tin, the price has increased this week. The supply side has limited recovery potential with many disturbances, and demand is mainly rigid. In the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, consider buying near the cost line [8]. - For industrial silicon, the production in Q4 is expected to be balanced with a slight surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price will likely oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market has been volatile due to multiple factors. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but the upward price movement depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the spot premium of Shanghai copper rose from 115 to 220, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 869, and the LME inventory increased by 675 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to rise, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased domestic power grid demand in 2026, global computing center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction demand. The bearish factor is the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased from 21,450 to 22,010, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum futures price has rebounded, and inventories are decreasing. The market may fluctuate in the short - term, with supply and demand expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased from 22,370 to 22,990, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,875 tons [1][2][12]. - **Market Outlook**: The zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as declining TC and potential production cuts in December. The demand is weak both at home and abroad. The export window is open, and the price may not fall deeply [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased from 119,500 to 120,300, and the LME inventory increased by 126 tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising. With ongoing policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities can be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Given the potential policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities are worth attention [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the lead price decreased, the LME inventory decreased by 5,100 tons [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price has declined this week, with improved sales. The supply is abundant, and demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,200 [5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the tin price increased, and the LME inventory decreased by 20 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has limited recovery potential with many disturbances, and demand is mainly rigid. In the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, consider buying near the cost line [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis improved, the 553 East China and Tianjin basis decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 336 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The production in Q4 is expected to be balanced with a slight surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price will likely oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, the basis weakened, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 770 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has been volatile due to multiple factors. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but the upward price movement depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the CESCO copper conference shows that institutions and the industry generally agree on the idea of buying on dips. The copper price is expected to move up, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased demand from the domestic power grid in 2026, global computing power center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. Bearish factors mainly concern the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. - For aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum ingot inventories have decreased significantly, and downstream consumption is fair. It may show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - For zinc, the zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as accelerating decline in domestic and imported TC, and some smelters have production changes. The demand side is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. Given the ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Considering the Indonesian policy's motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. - For lead, the lead price has declined this week, and trading has improved. Supply is abundant, while demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and social inventories are starting to accumulate. The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200, and cautious operation is recommended [4][5]. - For tin, the tin price has risen this week. The supply side has limited processing fees and various disturbances, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short - term, the fundamentals are fair, and it is recommended to hold near the cost line on price dips or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rates, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market has multiple expectations this week. The raw material supply is still tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons. However, due to high inventories in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the price increase still depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [9]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 20, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 309, and the LME inventory increased by 2,375 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to move up, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased demand from the domestic power grid in 2026, global computing power center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. Bearish factors mainly concern the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 80, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased significantly, and downstream products also showed inventory reduction [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded. It may show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 180, the LME zinc inventory increased by 350, and the LME zinc注销仓单 decreased by 250 [1][2]. - **Market Outlook**: The zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as accelerating decline in domestic and imported TC, and some smelters have production changes. The demand side is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,290 [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. Given the ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the price of 304 hot - rolled coils increased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Considering the Indonesian policy's motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the lead price decreased, the LME lead inventory decreased by 3,925, and the LME lead注销仓单 decreased by 3,900 [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price has declined this week, and trading has improved. Supply is abundant, while demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and social inventories are starting to accumulate. The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200, and cautious operation is recommended [4][5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the tin price increased, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15, and the LME tin注销仓单 remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price has risen this week. The supply side has limited processing fees and various disturbances, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short - term, the fundamentals are fair, and it is recommended to hold near the cost line on price dips or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the basis of 421 silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 170, and the basis of 553 silicon in East China and Tianjin also increased by 170. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rates, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 50, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 770 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has multiple expectations this week. The raw material supply is still tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons. However, due to high inventories in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the price increase still depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation is a result of market consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, prices are supported at low levels. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 increased from 1652.00 yuan/ton to 1662.00 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; UR05 rose from 1727.00 yuan/ton to 1737.00 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; UR09 went up from 1748.00 yuan/ton to 1755.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% increase. [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong decreased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1590.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change; Henan dropped from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.62% change; Hebei fell from 1630.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton, a - 1.23% change; Jiangsu declined from 1590.00 yuan/ton to 1580.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change. [1] - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 930.00 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased from 2980.00 yuan/ton to 3000.00 yuan/ton, a 0.67% increase; the price of melamine in Jiangsu rose from 5150.00 yuan/ton to 5200.00 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase. [1] Key Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, with a high of 1667 yuan/ton, a low of 1641 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1662 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1656 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 254752 hands. [1] Trading Strategy - Sell option profit - taking, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1]