交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年11月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 现货价格 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14350，基差-500 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世 ...

棕榈油逢低做多 摘 要： 行情展望： 棕榈油近月基本面呈现"供增需减"特征，产量回 升，库存压力犹存。且印尼 B50 计划实施时间尚远，短期 内对棕榈油供应格局影响有限，难以对当前市场形成实质 性支撑。当前棕榈油市场已进入"利多出尽"阶段，短期 内价格仍面临调整压力，预计震荡运行为主。操作上建议 逢低做多。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 棕榈油专题报告 1.棕榈油价格行情回顾 图 1：24度棕榈油均价走势（元/吨） 2. 供应情况分析 图 2：中国棕榈油进口数据 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证研究 4.成本利润分析 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证研究 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in a wide - range oscillation. For industrial silicon, the 2511 contract is expected to trade between 7,700 and 10,000 yuan; for lithium carbonate, the 2511 contract is expected to move in the range of 65,000 to 100,000 yuan [8][30]. 3. Summaries by Section Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Industrial silicon futures are in a large - range oscillation. As of October 17, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,100 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The daily price is generally in a downward channel, and the main short - side camp has a slight advantage [7]. - The industrial silicon 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the strategy was to mainly buy on dips; this week, it is advisable to consider grid trading within the range [11][12]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a canceled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range oscillation. As of October 17, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,250 yuan/ton. The daily chart of lithium carbonate futures is in a sideways phase, and the main funds show a strong bearish sentiment [30]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 yuan [30]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the strategy was to consider grid trading; this week, it is advisable to mainly buy on dips as it moves in a large range [33]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a canceled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the current urea spot price is oscillating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips after the spot price stabilizes. Specifically, it is advisable to pay attention to the buying - on - dips opportunity of the 01 contract [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 15, compared with September 12, UR01 futures price increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.20%) to 1683 yuan/ton, UR05 increased by 13 yuan/ton (0.76%) to 1731 yuan/ton, and UR09 increased by 180 yuan/ton (11.46%) to 1750 yuan/ton [1] - In terms of domestic spot prices (small - granular), prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased, with price changes of - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.20%), - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.61%), and - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) respectively, while prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - On September 15, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared with September 12; the 01 - 05 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream anthracite prices in Henan, Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream prices: the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) to 5083 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1666 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1688 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1665 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1683 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton [1] Long - Short Logic - Recently, there has been a resurgence of anti - involution sentiment in coking coal. The sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the coal - chemical sentiment to be relatively strong [1] - From a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - From a driving perspective, there are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renovation, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80%, and there is not much idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations, the urea exports from September to October are relatively promising [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the future. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old facilities, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is suggested to focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the 01 contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: The UR01 contract in Shandong decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.83%) to 1669 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.81%) to 1719 yuan/ton, and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.68%) to 1613 yuan/ton [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The domestic small - particle urea prices in Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%) to 1670 yuan/ton, in Northeast China decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.59%) to 1680 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%) to 1650 yuan/ton. The price in Hebei remained unchanged [1]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 14 yuan/ton to - 49 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu all remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1692 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1668 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton, and the position was 283349 lots [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the 01 contract [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall idea is to go long on dips, considering the slowdown of the US labor market, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the loosening of Trump's tariff policy, the arrival of the domestic downstream demand peak season, and the approaching inventory inflection point. A long - AD short - AL arbitrage strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: Guinea's bauxite prices rose by $0.2 per dry ton to $75 due to the rainy season and mining复产 uncertainties. Alumina operating capacity increased by 1.7 million tons to 96.75 million tons, and inventory rose by 112,000 tons to 3.609 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 30,000 tons to 44.399 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate rose by 1% to 61.7%. Aluminum ingot and bar social inventory increased but at a slower pace. The secondary casting aluminum alloy industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders, and new policies pressured production [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for casting aluminum alloy, it is recommended to go long on dips or use the long - AD short - AL strategy [4]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and the RMB exchange rate, but no specific analysis is provided [6][7]. 3.3. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply tightened, with stable prices in Shanxi and Henan due to strengthened safety supervision, environmental inspections, and rainfall. Guinea's bauxite prices rose due to the rainy season and复产 uncertainties [10]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 96.75 million tons (up 1.7 million tons week - on - week), and the开工 rate was 84.4%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,101 yuan/ton (down 82.4 yuan/ton week - on - week). National alumina inventory was 3.609 million tons (up 112,000 tons week - on - week). Newly put - into - production capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north entered a stable - production state [14]. 3.5. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume, but no specific analysis is provided [16][17][18][19]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 45.232 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.399 million tons (up 30,000 tons week - on - week). The operating capacity increased steadily, with the resumption of production in Guizhou and the commissioning of replacement capacity in Yunnan Aluminum Yixin basically completed, and the remaining 50,000 - ton capacity of Baise Silver Sea's technical renovation project continuing to resume production [21]. 3.7. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on aluminum rod processing fees, Shanghai aluminum futures prices,动力煤 prices, and aluminum import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [25]. 3.8. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of aluminum bar, aluminum ingot, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum inventories, but no specific analysis is provided [27][28][29][30]. 3.9. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The开工 rate of secondary aluminum alloy leading enterprises rose by 1.8% to 55.3%. New policies pressured production, with some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi receiving tax - refund termination notices and some planning to implement new policies on September 1st. In September, the secondary aluminum industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders [33]. 3.10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices, aluminum ingot and aluminum alloy price differences, aluminum alloy futures forward curves, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [32][38][39]. 3.11. Downstream开工 - The开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose by 1% to 61.7%. - **Aluminum Profiles**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 53%. Industrial profiles' export demand increased due to the cancellation of component tax rebates, and automotive profiles' production was stable. Construction profiles' demand remained sluggish [46]. - **Aluminum Plates and Strips**: The开工 rate rose by 1.2% to 68.6%. With the arrival of the peak season, both domestic and foreign trade orders increased, and enterprises' willingness to stock raw materials and finished products strengthened [46]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 64.8%. Although new orders were limited, existing orders provided support. State Grid orders were concentrated in the second half of the year, leading to different recovery rhythms in different regions [50]. - **Primary Aluminum Alloys**: The开工 rate rose by 0.2% to 56.6%. The traditional consumption peak season started, but the resumption of production in the aluminum bar and other primary processing sectors continued to divert molten aluminum, resulting in a slow recovery at the beginning of the peak season [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures, as the current domestic situation shows strong supply and weak demand, but from a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high; from a driving perspective, there are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: supply - side has an expectation of old - device renovation (about 20% of urea devices are over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side has an expectation of improved exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On September 3, UR01 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 1.83% from September 2; UR05 closed at 1757 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 1.68%; UR09 closed at 1658 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 1.13% [1] Spot Prices - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on September 3 compared with September 2 [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 30 yuan to - 47 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan to - 43 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively on September 3 compared with September 2 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan or 0.19% to 5166 yuan/ton, while that in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1752 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1710 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1714 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 232,728 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend focusing on the opportunity to buy low on the 01 contract of urea futures, as the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the valuation of urea is not high. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: one is the expectation of renovation of old production facilities on the supply - side, and the other is the expectation of improved exports on the demand - side [1] Summary According to Relevant Data Urea Futures Prices - On September 1st, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1743 yuan/ton, 1784 yuan/ton, and 1670 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3 yuan/ton (-0.17%), -7 yuan/ton (-0.39%), and -9 yuan/ton (-0.54%) compared to August 29th [1] Domestic Spot Prices - On September 1st, the spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1700 yuan/ton, 1610 yuan/ton, 1720 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -20 yuan/ton, -10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and -20 yuan/ton compared to August 29th [1] Basis and Spread - On September 1st, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was -84 yuan/ton, a change of -13 yuan/ton compared to August 29th; the spread of 01 - 05 was -41 yuan/ton, a change of 4 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - The upstream anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively; the downstream prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1742 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1750 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1726 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1743 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 220274 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If geopolitical premiums reopen, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for unilateral trading, and pay attention to positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads after the improvement of supply and demand [5] - For urea, it is suggested to pay attention to going long at low prices as the price downside is limited [7] - For rubber, a medium - term bullish view is maintained. In the short - term, a neutral - to - bullish approach is appropriate, buying on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [15] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17] - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long - term. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [20] - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate upwards in the long - term [22] - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [23] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the crude oil at low prices during the peak season [27] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the PX at low prices after the improvement of downstream performance during the peak season [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is a downward pressure on valuation in the medium - term [29] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.87%, to $63.86; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.82%, to $67.8; INE main crude oil futures fell 16.40 yuan, or 3.36%, to 472.4 yuan [2] - US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a 0.55% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a 1.54% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a 1.60% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a 0.68% increase [2] Methanol - On August 27, the 01 contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of - 122. Coal prices continued to rise, costs increased, but enterprise profits were still good. Domestic production started to pick up, and supply increased marginally. Overseas plant operations returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will increase rapidly. The port MTO plant shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak, but the market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. The futures market shows signs of stabilization, but port inventories are still rising rapidly [5] Urea - On August 27, the 01 contract remained stable at 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable with a basis of - 47. Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level, so supply pressure still exists. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer and melamine decreased, and agricultural demand entered the off - season, resulting in weak domestic demand. Exports are advancing, and port inventories are rising again. The main demand variable is exports [7] Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and consolidated. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the possibility that supply benefits may be less than expected. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. As of August 21, 2025, the start - up load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [10][11][12][13] PVC - The PVC01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4949 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 239 (0) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 147 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, and the overall start - up rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decrease. The downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventories were 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventories were 853,000 tons (+ 41,000). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Downstream domestic start - up is at a five - year low, and export expectations are weak after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. The cost side has weak support [17] Benzene - Ethylene - The spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene fell, and the basis weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index pulled back, and the futures price followed. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair potential. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate oscillated moderately, and the supply was still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall start - up rate of three S oscillated and increased [19][20] Polyolefins Polyethylene - The futures price of polyethylene fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The overall inventory is being destocked from a high level, which will support the price. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the raw material procurement for agricultural films has started. The overall start - up rate has stabilized at a low - level oscillation [22] Polypropylene - The futures price of polypropylene fell. The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical was put into operation, and the propylene supply has returned marginally. The downstream start - up rate oscillated at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but there is high inventory pressure under the background of weak supply and demand, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [23] PX & PTA & MEG PX - The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6940 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 854 dollars. The PX load in China was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some domestic PTA plants had changes such as load reduction, restart, and new production. The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. However, due to the new PTA plant put into operation, PX is expected to maintain low inventory, and the valuation has support at the bottom [25] PTA - The PTA01 contract fell 46 yuan to 4824 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan/ton to 4835 yuan. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some plants had load changes. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 22 was 2.2 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 24 yuan to 243 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 9 yuan to 324 yuan. The supply - side unexpected maintenance increased in August, changing the inventory accumulation pattern to destocking, and the PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - The EG01 contract fell 9 yuan to 4481 yuan, and the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4553 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.2%, a 6.2% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had start - up or load - change operations. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The import arrival forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure on August 26 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a 47,000 - ton decrease. The cost - side ethylene price rose, and the coal price fell. The industry fundamentals show that overseas and domestic maintenance plants are starting up, and downstream start - up is recovering from the off - season, but the supply is still in excess. The port inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle in the medium - term, and the valuation is relatively high year - on - year, with downward pressure in the medium - term [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in the near future. It is recommended to switch to buying on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy. This is due to factors such as the restart of previously shut - down production facilities, the impact of coal price increases on costs, the current situation of downstream demand, and positive market sentiment driven by government policies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 22, the restart of maintenance devices in Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II LDPE and Shanghai SECCO HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. Due to coal production inspections, coal prices have risen significantly. With new production capacity coming on - stream and the restart of maintenance devices, and considering government policies, it is recommended to buy on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with a low of 7264 yuan/ton, a high of 7373 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7368 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, up 1.26%. The open interest decreased by 13,406 lots to 394,148 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7130 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9240 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7660 - 8220 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 18, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 84%, currently at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 18, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the off - season, with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 790,000 tons compared to the previous day, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract fell to $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $830/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $820/ton [4]