Group 1 - The core argument is that the ongoing Ukraine war is a result of Europe's inability to confront a powerful Russia, which will not tolerate provocations from European nations after resolving the Ukraine issue [1][3] - The article suggests that the Ukraine war is fundamentally a confrontation between the US and Russia, with European countries merely supporting the US, leading to a breakdown of strategic balance in Europe [3][4] - Historical context indicates that Europe has been a source of global conflict for over 200 years, and the current geopolitical landscape is a result of European nations' own actions [3][4] Group 2 - The article argues that the safest period for Europe was during the US-Soviet standoff from 1945 to 1991, which was maintained by US intervention, not out of affection for Europe [4][5] - NATO's eastward expansion is portrayed as a strategy by the US to maintain control over Europe by creating insecurity, rather than enhancing European safety [4][5] - Russia's desire for peaceful coexistence has been ignored, leading to its resurgence as a major power willing to confront the US [5][6] Group 3 - The article categorizes European countries into five groups based on their historical ambitions and current geopolitical interests, highlighting the complexity of European unity [6][7][8] - Countries like Germany and France are seen as having ambitions for a unified Europe, while others like Poland and the Baltic states seek to regain lost territories [7][8] - Smaller nations tend to prioritize self-preservation and may not have the capacity to challenge Russia independently [8][9] Group 4 - The article critiques the notion that European unity can be achieved through current alliances, suggesting that the EU's decision-making process favors smaller nations' interests, hindering collective security [9][10] - It posits that the perception of Russia as a threat is largely a construct of US interests, rather than a reflection of historical realities [10][11] - The article concludes that Europe's best security strategy would be to pursue peaceful coexistence with Russia rather than relying on US protection [11][12]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market showed significant differentiation on July 1, with the shipping index for European routes rising over 7%, while industrial silicon fell over 4% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1379.05 points, up 2.58 points or 0.19% from the previous trading day [1] - The shipping index for European routes reported a 9.6% increase, reaching 2123.24 points, supported by airlines adjusting freight rates and positive market expectations for July [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The market's increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut led to a weaker dollar, resulting in a continuous rebound in spot gold prices, with both Shanghai gold and silver rising over 1% [4] - The ongoing concerns regarding Trump's tariff policies are providing additional support for gold prices, as global public debt continues to expand [4] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Related Commodities - Industrial silicon prices fell over 4%, with production cuts from major northern manufacturers and a potential decrease in electricity prices in southern regions [5] - The supply side remains under pressure despite some production cuts, as smaller furnaces in southern regions are resuming operations, maintaining high inventory levels [5] - Focus on coal futures also showed a decline of over 3%, with expectations of increased production from various coal mines in Shanxi as environmental inspections conclude [5] Group 4: Glass Market - Glass prices dropped over 3%, with production resuming at several facilities, including a significant plant in Shandong [6] - Despite slight inventory reductions in some regions, overall demand remains weak, keeping glass prices under pressure [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the future direction of the world largely depends on the strategic choices of major powers, advocating for cooperation over confrontation [1] Group 1 - If major powers establish trust and a consensus for cooperation, it will foster a spirit of collaboration in the international community, leading to development across various fields [1] - Conversely, if major powers are filled with suspicion and confrontation prevails, it will hinder the formation of a cooperative consensus and the achievement of collaborative results [1] - The article asserts that confrontation is not a viable path, and cooperation is the trend of the times and an inevitable choice for the development of human society [1]