再次，中国经济的韧性及积极的中长期政策构成了人民币汇率走强的基本面支撑。中央经济工作会议明 确指出，2026年将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，包括继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策；将发力稳增长、扩内需，优化并延续"两新"政策、适当增加中央预算内投资、继续发挥政策性金 融工具作用等。一系列协同发力的政策组合，叠加中国在超大规模市场、完整产业体系和人才红利方面 的综合优势，将共同推动中国经济稳中有进。这为人民币汇率提供了内在的基本面支撑。 在投资市场，人民币汇率走强提升了以人民币计价的金融资产对外价值，总体对中国的股市和债市构成 积极影响。对于持有美元等外币的国际投资者而言，投资人民币资产不仅能获得资产本身可能产生的收 益，还能额外享受汇率升值带来的汇兑收益。对债市而言，宽松的流动性环境和稳定的汇率预期，有利 于市场利率保持平稳或下行，从而为债市提供稳健空间。 对于涉及进出口的企业，人民币汇率走强将产生不同影响。对于进口企业，人民币购买力增强意味着降 低能源、原材料、关键零部件及高端消费品的进口成本，改善盈利空间。对于出口企业，可能面临部分 出口产品的价格竞争挑战。在此背景下，进出口企业需要主动运用 ...

广发期货： 当前美国经济运行和就业市场持续结构性分化但总体衰退风险不大，美联储未来在衡量就业的通胀目标 问题上仍有分歧态度趋于谨慎，但市场对货政宽松预期在"影子主席"言论叠加美联储独立性受到威胁影 响下可能升温，资金情绪的影响还有贸易和地缘风险的扰动或使金价中长期上涨空间可观。短期市场或 消化美国就业市场重新回到低供应+低增长的新平衡市场风险偏好改善，因此金价上涨动能受到抑制， 突破前高的动能仍需酝酿，后续关注美国经济数据及美联储官员表态对市场情绪扰动，单边以回调后再 买入思路为主。 期货公司观点 携多年历史性上涨的强劲动能，黄金市场平稳迈入2026年，但市场呈现出一组耐人寻味的反差：尽管涨 势如虹，整体参与度却始终保持低迷。值得关注的是，即便2024至2025年间金价屡屡突破历史纪录，市 场对其"超买"的评判不绝于耳，却鲜有"超持"的论断出现。这一关键差异，恰恰揭示了本轮黄金行情的 核心属性——机构持仓仍存在显著扩张空间，说明当前涨势并非短期投机资金炒作的结果，而是由尚未 触及峰值的结构性需求所主导，为行情的持续性奠定了坚实基础。 回溯2024-2025年的金价上行周期，政策层面的不确定性堪称核心驱动力。进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has entered a strong appreciation phase against the US dollar, with significant increases in the exchange rate observed, driven by both internal economic resilience and external factors such as a weakening dollar index [1][3][5]. Exchange Rate Performance - On December 24, the yuan's central parity rate was set at 7.0471 against the dollar, marking a rise of 52 basis points and the highest level since September 30, 2024 [3][4]. - The onshore and offshore yuan also showed appreciation, with the onshore rate peaking at 7.0125 and the offshore rate reaching 7.0013 [3][4]. - Since November 21, the yuan has appreciated significantly, with the offshore rate rising over 1200 basis points since mid-October [4][5]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The weakening of the dollar index has created a favorable external environment for the yuan's appreciation [5][6]. - Internal factors include the resilience of the Chinese economy, improved economic data, and seasonal demand for currency exchange as the year-end approaches [5][6]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a focus on maintaining a stable exchange rate, which supports market expectations [10]. Market Reactions - Over 30 A-share companies have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks from currency fluctuations [7]. - The appreciation of the yuan has mixed effects on trade, lowering costs for importers while pressuring exporters due to reduced price competitiveness [7][8]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that the yuan may continue to approach the 7.0 mark, with potential for temporary breaches, but sustained appreciation will depend on further internal and external factors [9][10]. - The central economic work conference has reiterated the goal of maintaining a stable exchange rate, indicating that significant fluctuations are not desired [10].

岁末年初，人民币对美元汇率开启强劲升值通道。12月24日，人民币汇率中间价大幅调升52基点，报7.0471元，续创 2024年9月30日以来中间价升值最高点。同日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率延续升值走势，其中离岸人民币对美元 汇率盘中收复7.10关口，最高升值至7.0013，距离破"7"这一整数关口仅一步之遥。 过去近一个月，人民币对美元汇率强势升值，引起市场广泛关注。究其原因，美元指数走软为人民币汇率的潜在升值 创造了较为友好的外部环境，内部中国经济的韧性与吸引力构成了坚实的基本面支撑，叠加年底临近或有结汇需求释 放，均支撑人民币汇率走升。分析人士普遍预计，短期内人民币汇率升值"破7"的可能性比较大，但接下来能否站稳 7.0关口之上有待进一步观察，汇市波动性有可能加大。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示，近期的人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精 准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共同作用的结果。美联储进入降息周期，导致美元指数显著走弱，带动包括人民币 在内的主要非美货币普遍被动升值。市场预期伴随着美联储继续开展降息，将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提 供外部升值空间。 "从内部因素 ...

人民币汇率市场的平静水面下，一场蓄力已久的突围正在上演。12月15日，人民币对美元汇率延续近期升势，盘中表现强劲。 在岸、离岸人民币汇率盘中双双冲破7.05，创下14个月来的新高，这不仅是数字的变化，更是全球资本用真金白银对中国经济前景的一次集中投票。 12月15日，人民币对美元汇率市场发生了一场静默却有力的突破。根据Wind数据显示，当日盘中，在岸人民币对美元汇率最高升至7.0497，离岸人民币对 美元汇率则一度触及7.0460，双双冲破7.05这一关键心理关口，创下近14个月来的新高。 汇率突围 当日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0656，较前一交易日调贬18个基点。然而市场交易中，在岸人民币日内最大涨幅近200个基点，离岸人民币最大涨幅超150 个基点。 这一表现并非孤立事件，而是2025年人民币汇率由弱转强趋势的延续。年初，人民币对美元汇率曾贬破7.30元心理关口，市场情绪一度低迷。而如今，这 一关键关口的收复标志着市场预期的根本性转变。 资本转向 全球资本的流向变化，是此轮人民币升值的重要推手。随着中国经济基本面改善和政策环境优化，国际投资者开始重新评估人民币资产的价值。 高盛最新研究预测显示，未来12 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market showed significant differentiation on July 1, with the shipping index for European routes rising over 7%, while industrial silicon fell over 4% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1379.05 points, up 2.58 points or 0.19% from the previous trading day [1] - The shipping index for European routes reported a 9.6% increase, reaching 2123.24 points, supported by airlines adjusting freight rates and positive market expectations for July [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The market's increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut led to a weaker dollar, resulting in a continuous rebound in spot gold prices, with both Shanghai gold and silver rising over 1% [4] - The ongoing concerns regarding Trump's tariff policies are providing additional support for gold prices, as global public debt continues to expand [4] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Related Commodities - Industrial silicon prices fell over 4%, with production cuts from major northern manufacturers and a potential decrease in electricity prices in southern regions [5] - The supply side remains under pressure despite some production cuts, as smaller furnaces in southern regions are resuming operations, maintaining high inventory levels [5] - Focus on coal futures also showed a decline of over 3%, with expectations of increased production from various coal mines in Shanxi as environmental inspections conclude [5] Group 4: Glass Market - Glass prices dropped over 3%, with production resuming at several facilities, including a significant plant in Shandong [6] - Despite slight inventory reductions in some regions, overall demand remains weak, keeping glass prices under pressure [6]