黄金回调附近5170做多，止损20个点，目标5230附近。 文/江问樵专业国际市场点评，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入 的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，若您对这种即将选择方向的行情节奏把 握需要更清晰的预判，欢迎关注交流探讨，让我们共同捕捉下一轮行情的启动点。 当日消息面整体利多黄金，进一步印证了该做多策略的可行性。美伊局势紧张、特朗普关税政策不确定性加剧全球避险 情绪，美元指数跌破96关口创近三年新低，直接提升以美元计价的黄金资产吸引力。全球央行购金潮延续、美联储下半 年降息预期强烈，筑牢金价长期支撑，叠加节后实物需求爆发，为金价反弹提供强劲动能。 黄金技术面呈现高位回调修正态势，为5170附近做多提供了合理入场时机。当日伦敦金现早盘冲高至5237.71美元/盎司 后急跌超100点，短线获利盘出逃引发回调，但日线级别多头格局未被破坏，RSI指标超买修正后逐步回归合理区间。 5170附近处于关键强支撑区间，贴合当日5144.62美元/盎司的低点反弹区域，同时契合市场对5170-5180支撑位的普遍判 断，回调至此企稳后做多具 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market showed significant differentiation on July 1, with the shipping index for European routes rising over 7%, while industrial silicon fell over 4% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1379.05 points, up 2.58 points or 0.19% from the previous trading day [1] - The shipping index for European routes reported a 9.6% increase, reaching 2123.24 points, supported by airlines adjusting freight rates and positive market expectations for July [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The market's increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut led to a weaker dollar, resulting in a continuous rebound in spot gold prices, with both Shanghai gold and silver rising over 1% [4] - The ongoing concerns regarding Trump's tariff policies are providing additional support for gold prices, as global public debt continues to expand [4] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Related Commodities - Industrial silicon prices fell over 4%, with production cuts from major northern manufacturers and a potential decrease in electricity prices in southern regions [5] - The supply side remains under pressure despite some production cuts, as smaller furnaces in southern regions are resuming operations, maintaining high inventory levels [5] - Focus on coal futures also showed a decline of over 3%, with expectations of increased production from various coal mines in Shanxi as environmental inspections conclude [5] Group 4: Glass Market - Glass prices dropped over 3%, with production resuming at several facilities, including a significant plant in Shandong [6] - Despite slight inventory reductions in some regions, overall demand remains weak, keeping glass prices under pressure [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3240.55 per ounce, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.4% [1] - Gold has experienced a downward trend, with a recent low of $3267.07, approaching a critical support level of $3260 [1] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies are mixed, with weak U.S. economic data supporting rate cuts, while a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields is pressuring gold's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend for gold, with a recent break below the support level of $3370, confirming a downward adjustment [2] - The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, suggesting further downside potential for gold prices [2] - The short-term trading strategy recommends focusing on short positions during any rebounds, particularly around the resistance levels of $3260-$3270 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have dipped to $63.16, reflecting concerns over potential global economic recession due to unpredictable tariff strategies from the U.S. [5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has disrupted global supply chains and affected investor confidence in long-term energy demand [5] - Current oil price trends indicate a downward trajectory, with expectations of further declines unless there are signs of trade resolution or demand recovery [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart shows a downward trend for oil prices, with a potential target of $50 following a recent low of $55.20 [6] - The short-term outlook remains bearish, with recommendations to focus on short positions during any price rebounds, particularly around resistance levels of $59.0-$60.0 [6]