大国平衡外交
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出海,选孟加拉吗?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-06 00:30
Group 1: Political Changes - In the second half of 2024, Bangladesh experienced significant political upheaval, leading to the resignation and exile of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after widespread protests against the controversial civil servant quota system [1][5][6] - The new interim government aims to stabilize the political situation and prioritize economic revitalization while seeking to deepen cooperation with various countries, including China [2][3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The political turmoil has severely impacted Bangladesh's economy, with GDP growth expectations for the 2024-2025 fiscal year dropping to 3.8%, the lowest in nearly two decades [14] - Exports, particularly in the garment sector, have declined, with a 10.97% year-on-year drop in exports to the U.S. in the first half of 2024 due to instability [15] Group 3: Government Policies - The interim government, led by economist Muhammad Yunus, has implemented measures to restore macroeconomic stability, including tightening monetary policy and reducing government spending [15][16] - Structural reforms are underway, including tax system reforms aimed at increasing tax revenue, which has historically been below 10% of GDP [16] Group 4: Foreign Relations and Investment - The new government continues a friendly policy towards China, signing nine cooperation agreements and securing $2.1 billion in funding for various projects [18][19] - The government is also working to balance relations with the U.S. and India, emphasizing a non-aligned foreign policy while seeking to attract foreign investment [21] Group 5: Market Opportunities - Bangladesh's large population of 170 million, with over 28% aged 15-29, presents significant consumer demand potential, particularly in sectors like automotive and electronics [23] - The country is seen as a favorable investment destination due to its relatively open foreign investment policies and the establishment of special economic zones [25][26] Group 6: Challenges - Despite the opportunities, challenges remain, including political uncertainty, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and a high level of corruption, which can hinder business operations [26][27] - The need for infrastructure development and skilled labor remains critical, as the country seeks to diversify its manufacturing base beyond garment production [27][28]
闪评丨美国代表团取消赴印度行程 美印关税磋商前景不明
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 11:20
据多家外媒报道,美国贸易谈判代表团原定于8月25日至29日访问印度的计划已被取消,这意味着美印之间的双边关税磋商 将被推迟。 路透社报道截图 近期,美印两国的贸易关系加速恶化。《印度时报》称,美国寻求在印度农业和乳制品等敏感领域获得更大市场准入,但印 方对此"无法同意"。 此外,本月初,美国还以印度继续进口俄罗斯石油为由,宣布自本月27日起,对印度商品加征25%的关税。若如期生效,印 度部分对美出口产品的关税将被提高至50%,是美国向贸易对象征收的最高关税之一。 兰州大学政治与国际关系学院教授朱永彪在接受总台环球资讯记者采访时分析认为,美方突然取消访问行程,是试图迫使印 度做出更大让步,但在核心问题上,印度妥协的空间有限。 对于美国来说,它制裁的理由是印度一直在购买俄罗斯石油,并向盟友销售。第二是贸易壁垒,让美国认为自己处于不公平 的地位。但是对于印度来说,他不愿意在这两个核心问题上做出让步。第一个,如果大幅度减少甚至直接取消从俄罗斯购买 石油,会使印度从赚差价这一过程中利益受损,也会直接影响到印度的能源安全,并损害印俄关系。 第二,在贸易壁垒方面,因为印度和美国处于不对等的经济地位,如果按照美国的要求,对印 ...