编号：2026-001 | 投资者关系 | √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称及 | 东方宝莲资产管理(北京)有限责任公司：杨荣培；北京现实元素信息科技有限公司： | | 人员姓名 | 姜隆；中国农业银行：郭彦刚；中积兴业建设集团有限公司：杜天柱；国都证券：杨 | | | 东雄；北京中金国联投资管理有限公司：时运文；首建投投资管理有限公司：谭健； | | | 平安银行北京分行：蒯媛 | | 时间 | 2026 年 1 月 8 日 | | 地点 | 北京 | | 上市公司接待人 | 田文斌、王依涵 | | 员姓名 | | | | 1、 公司如何判断未来稀土原材料价格走势？ | | | 答：稀土价格走势受供需情况、相关政策及行业发展等诸多因素影响。公司希望其在 | | | 合理价格保持相对稳定。 | | | 2、公司的生产基地有哪些？ | | | 答：目前公司的主要生产基地分别位于宁波、天津、赣州、上海和北京。 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The North American aluminum industry is facing opportunities from increased U.S. trade barriers on aluminum imports and challenges from data centers competing for limited power resources. The supply-demand gap for primary aluminum in North America is expected to widen over the next five years, with local U.S. aluminum maintaining a high premium [2]. Supply Overview - The supply of primary aluminum in North America is limited due to power constraints and uncertainties in trade policies. Since 2011, new primary aluminum capacity has stagnated, and cost pressures from aging power and equipment have led to many U.S. projects being idled or shut down. The U.S. local Mt Holly project has announced a restart of idle capacity, while new projects by Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum depend heavily on policy support. Canada currently has no expansion projects with net capacity increases planned. It is expected that North American primary aluminum production will slightly increase from 3.99 million tons in 2024 to 4.16 million tons by 2030, mainly from the restart of idle capacity [5][11][18]. Demand Overview - North American aluminum demand is expected to maintain rapid growth, with the regional supply-demand gap likely to widen further. The transportation sector is anticipated to see a recovery in automotive manufacturing capacity utilization under U.S. tariff protection, while strong orders in aerospace will support aircraft manufacturing demand. Residential construction aluminum demand may stabilize and rebound after new housing starts bottom out. The high investment in the power sector may continue to drive related aluminum demand [5][11][43]. Key Companies - The North American aluminum industry is dominated by three major companies: Alcoa, Century Aluminum, and Rio Tinto. Rio Tinto maintains a relatively stronger profitability due to its low-cost hydroelectric power and integrated bauxite resources. Century Aluminum benefits more from U.S. tariff protections due to its high domestic production ratio. Alcoa, with a higher proportion of alumina revenue, can better withstand cost pressures related to alumina prices, while its higher cash cost per ton of aluminum provides greater profit elasticity [6][45]. Trade and Policy Impact - U.S. aluminum net imports reached a historical high in 2017 but have since declined due to tariff policies. The U.S. aluminum dependency ratio rose from 3% in 2011 to 59% in 2017, then fell to 38% in 2020 due to tariff protections. However, the dependency ratio is expected to rise again to around 50% from 2021 to 2024. The recent increase in tariffs to 25% and 50% will significantly elevate trade barriers [25][26][30]. Price Dynamics - The Midwest premium for aluminum in the U.S. has been expanding due to tariff impacts. The premium has risen from below $0.10 per pound before 2012 to around $0.20 per pound after the introduction of tariffs in 2018, and further to $0.80-$0.90 per pound with the recent tariff increases, effectively covering additional costs imposed by tariffs [35][36]. Future Outlook - The supply of primary aluminum in North America is expected to remain limited due to power resource constraints and uncertainties in trade policies. The demand for aluminum is projected to grow rapidly, particularly in the transportation and packaging sectors. The supply-demand gap is likely to widen from 2025 to 2030, with the Midwest premium expected to remain at a high level sufficient to cover tariff costs [38][43].

在全球经济格局重构与产业升级的双重背景下，有色金属行业正面临供给端收缩与需求端扩张的结构性 矛盾。国内"反内卷"政策推动行业提质增效，海外贸易壁垒加剧资源获取难度，叠加终端需求的刚性增 长与新兴领域的快速扩容，共同铸就了有色金属供给难放量、价格难回落的市场格局。 1、国内"反内卷"：主动压减无效供给，行业格局持续优化 国内有色金属行业的"反内卷"并非简单的产能收缩，而是通过政策引导实现无效供给出清与产业结构升 级的主动变革。早自2015年供给侧改革启动，政策便以"严禁新增+清理违规+环保倒逼"的组合拳重塑 行业生态。 "反内卷"逻辑在铜行业尤为突出。早年铜行业存在中小厂工艺落后、产能利用率低等问题，2016年行业 产能利用率仅72%，低于全球均值5个百分点。2018年，工业和信息化部制定了《铜冶炼行业规范条 件》，2025年2月11日工信息部等十一部门关于印发《铜产业高质量发展实施方案（2025—2027 年）》，文件中提到新建铜冶炼项目原则上需要配套相应比例的权益铜精矿产能，大气污染防治重点区 域不再新增铜冶炼产能并且在2025年底大气污染防治重点区域的铜冶炼企业产能全部完成环保绩效A级 改造。新规之下，2 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the energy storage industry, highlighting a new growth cycle driven by multiple factors [2]. Core Insights - The global energy storage industry is expected to see significant growth, with new installations projected to reach 438 GWh by 2026, representing a 62% year-on-year increase. This growth is driven by the transition from a single focus on renewable energy consumption to a triad of drivers: AI computing infrastructure, energy transition needs, and grid congestion [2]. - In China, new installations are expected to reach 250 GWh in 2026, a 67% increase year-on-year, as policies shift from "strong allocation" to "profitability" [2]. - The U.S. is projected to see 70 GWh of new installations in 2026, a 35% increase year-on-year, with AI driving rigid growth [2]. - Europe is expected to install 51 GWh in 2026, a 55% increase year-on-year, with long-term contracts locking in demand [2]. - Emerging markets are anticipated to see a 91% year-on-year increase in installations, reaching 67 GWh by 2026, driven by economic benefits from "diesel replacement" [3]. Summary by Sections Macro Section: Restructuring Demand and Barriers - The mismatch between the rapid expansion of AI computing and the slow growth of power grids is creating significant bottlenecks in the U.S. and Europe, with average waiting times for grid connections extending to 3-10 years [13]. - Energy storage is becoming a strategic infrastructure to bypass grid bottlenecks, allowing data centers to meet load reduction requirements and avoid lengthy approval processes for grid expansion [13][17]. Demand Section: New Growth Cycle Driven by AI and Energy Transition - The report emphasizes that the energy storage market is transitioning from a focus on backup power to active supply, with storage systems now capable of peak shaving and grid support [17]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to surge due to the increasing need for AI data centers and the ongoing energy transition [2][3]. Supply Section: Navigating Through Oversupply Cycles - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to recover from a period of oversupply, with a significant rebound anticipated in 2026 as demand driven by AI and energy storage continues to grow [4]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on midstream materials that are experiencing supply-demand reversals, recommending investments in critical segments such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and carbonates [4]. New Technology: Advancements in Solid-State Batteries - The report forecasts that solid-state batteries will begin small-scale production in 2026, with significant advancements in materials and manufacturing processes expected [4]. - The commercialization of solid-liquid batteries is anticipated to occur in 2026, with applications across various sectors including robotics and consumer electronics [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in critical supply chain segments that are expected to see price increases, as well as companies with localized manufacturing capabilities that can navigate trade barriers effectively [4]. - Companies providing integrated energy solutions for data centers and those involved in solid-state battery technology are highlighted as key investment opportunities [4].

Export Performance in 2025 - In 2025, China's exports are expected to grow by 5.0% (in USD), demonstrating strong resilience despite significant tariffs imposed by the US[2] - The decline in exports to the US is projected to narrow, with a drop of 18.9% in the first 11 months of 2025, impacting overall export growth by approximately 2.8 percentage points[11] - Exports to non-US markets contributed about 6.0 percentage points to overall export growth, offsetting the decline in US exports[11] Outlook for 2026 - For 2026, China's export growth is anticipated to slow to around 4%, still outperforming the global average of approximately 0.5%[14] - China's share of global exports is expected to rise to 15.5% in 2026, up from 15.0% in 2025 and 14.6% in 2024[22] - The export structure is shifting from low-end consumer goods to mid-to-high-end intermediate and capital goods due to global supply chain restructuring[2] Key Drivers of Export Resilience - Demand from emerging markets such as Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America is expected to drive the demand for industrial and intermediate goods, supporting Chinese exports[2] - China's competitive advantage in key segments of the supply chain continues to attract imports of essential intermediate and capital goods from countries like ASEAN[2] - Expansion in global AI computing power investments is likely to boost exports of Chinese electrical equipment and data center products[2] Risks and Policy Recommendations - Potential risks include the escalation of the US-China tariff war and increasing trade barriers from other economies[5] - Policy recommendations suggest enhancing domestic reforms and technological upgrades to strengthen export competitiveness[4] - Expanding high-level international openness is advised to provide stable support for enterprises' export and globalization efforts[4]

美国政府公开点名多家欧洲跨国公司，警告称若欧盟不改变其对美国科技巨头的监管方式，美方将"别 无选择"地进行反制。 当地时间12月16日，美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）发表声明，指责欧盟及其成员国"持续对美国服务提 供商采取歧视性和骚扰性的诉讼、税收、罚款和指令"。 美国贸易代表格里尔（Jamieson Greer）在声明中强调："如果欧盟及其成员国坚持通过歧视性手段限 制、约束和阻止美国服务提供商的竞争力，美国将别无选择，只能动用一切可用工具反制这些不合理措 施。" USTR在声明中点名多家欧洲企业，称"这些欧洲服务提供商数十年来在美国市场享有高度自由的运营环 境"，并进一步暗示"若需实施报复，美国法律允许对外国服务征收费用、施加限制或采取其他相应行 动。" USTR还表示，"对于在该领域采取欧盟式战略的其他国家，美国也将采取类似的做法"，这被视为对澳 大利亚、英国以及正在考虑类似政策的其他国家的潜在警告。 当前，美国政府在数字税上的强硬立场已经"初见成效"。今年6月，特朗普以暂停所有贸易谈判为威 胁，令加拿大在数字税生效前决定取消该税。此外，美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）此前促成七 国集团 ...

Group 1 - Mexico's Congress approved a tariff bill on December 10, 2025, imposing additional tariffs on 1,463 products from non-free trade agreement countries, including China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, and South Korea, to protect local industries [1] - The tariff rates will increase from the original 0-20% to 10-50%, affecting approximately 17 industries, including textiles, steel, automotive parts, plastics, and appliances, with the law expected to be enacted by January 1, 2026 [1] Group 2 - The increase in import tariffs is expected to raise costs for imported goods and encourage local sourcing, while also accelerating the trend of local supply and supply chain expansion [2] - The company has established production capacities in Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, focusing on local or nearby sourcing for raw materials, which helps mitigate the impact of increased tariffs [2] - The company's overseas business has a significantly higher profitability compared to domestic operations, with projected foreign sales revenue of 1.104 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, and a gross margin of 33%, which is 8.63 percentage points higher than domestic sales [2] Group 3 - The company emphasizes investor returns through a light asset expansion model, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio, with projected ratios of 75.1%, 101.5%, and 310.5% for 2022-2024 [3] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 874 million yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 15.95% [3] - The company has maintained a net operating cash flow exceeding 400 million yuan over the past three years, ensuring strong cash flow quality to support ongoing dividends and business expansion [3] Group 4 - Revenue growth is projected at 7%, 15%, and 18% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth of 18%, 31%, and 22%, respectively, maintaining previous estimates [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.22 yuan, 0.28 yuan, and 0.35 yuan, respectively, with a current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13.7X for 2026, indicating a high safety margin and significant dividend value [4]

Core Viewpoint - The US-UK "Technology Prosperity Agreement" has been paused less than three months after its signing, indicating a reassessment by the US government regarding the benefits and feasibility of the agreement [2][6]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement was signed during President Trump's visit to the UK in September and aimed to enhance cooperation in advanced technology fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and civil nuclear energy [2]. - Major US tech companies, including Microsoft, Google, NVIDIA, and OpenAI, pledged to invest over $40 billion in the UK to improve its AI infrastructure and other advanced technologies [2]. - The agreement is based on the US-UK "Economic Prosperity Agreement" signed in May and is not legally binding, allowing either party to terminate it with written notice [6]. Group 2: US Government's Position - The US government has paused the agreement due to perceived insufficient progress by the UK in reducing trade barriers [2]. - Analysts suggest that the US may use the agreement as leverage to demand more concessions from the UK in trade negotiations and geopolitical matters [2][7]. Group 3: Concerns and Criticism - Critics have raised concerns about the potential for the US to dominate the partnership due to its superior funding and technological capabilities, which could lead to the UK facing technology dependency and sovereignty risks [7]. - The agreement has faced skepticism since its announcement, with some labeling it as "second-rate" compared to other tech partnerships [7]. Group 4: Ongoing Negotiations - Recent discussions between the UK and US have included topics such as tariffs on steel and whiskey, as well as cooperation on critical minerals [11]. - The UK has agreed to a significant increase in tariff-free quotas for US beef and ethanol, indicating a willingness to negotiate on agricultural products in exchange for technological cooperation [10].

Core Viewpoint - The US has paused the UK-US "Tech Prosperity Agreement" due to perceived insufficient progress by the UK in reducing trade barriers, despite the agreement being signed less than three months ago during President Trump's visit to the UK [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The "Tech Prosperity Agreement" was signed to enhance cooperation in advanced technology fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and civil nuclear energy, with US tech companies pledging over $40 billion in investments in the UK [1] - The agreement is based on the previously signed "Economic Prosperity Agreement" and is contingent upon substantial progress in its implementation [3] - The memorandum indicates that the agreement is not legally binding, allowing either party to terminate it with written notice [3] Group 2: Analysis and Implications - Analysts suggest that the US government is reassessing the benefits and feasibility of the agreement, potentially using it as leverage in broader trade negotiations with the UK [1][4] - Concerns have been raised regarding the balance of power in the agreement, with critics arguing that the US's technological and financial superiority could lead to the UK becoming overly dependent on US technology [4] - The UK may need to make further commitments regarding investments in the US or open its markets to US agricultural products to advance in tech cooperation [6][4] Group 3: Ongoing Negotiations - Recent discussions between UK and US officials have focused on tariffs related to whiskey and steel, as well as cooperation on critical minerals, with plans to continue negotiations in January [7]

作为应对，南政府宣布立即取消长期以来备受批评的3850美元集装箱追踪费（OTP税），并承诺全面审 查所有进口相关费用，打击非法收费。同时，南政府已成立国家委员会审查进口税制，并将直接走访商 人以简化贸易流程。 南企业代表指出，肯尼亚的收费是其他地区的三倍多，叠加运输路线变更及国内多重税费，导致许多集 装箱总成本超过货物价值，商家严重亏损。同时，呼吁南政府加强部门协调，解决贸易壁垒。 非洲时报2025年12月11日消息 本周，南苏丹政府强烈抗议肯尼亚对运往该国的每个集装箱征收5000美 元押金，称此举严重打击南国际贸易、加剧蒙巴萨港拥堵，并可能导致南国内市场混乱。南贸工部长阿 通·库奥尔·马尼杨在朱巴高层会议上表示，政府将全力阻止本国商人承受不公正的外国收费。 ...