从长远来看，这一政策推动了区域内的贸易变化，尤其是RCEP框架下的区域合作，东盟峰会也开始积 极推动柬泰之间的合作，缓解了美国的压力。联合国贸发会议的报告指出，这种贸易壁垒可能会导致全 球GDP损失0.5%。中国坚持继续对外开放，推动各方对话，努力维护地区的稳定。 特朗普一上任就开始大力使用关税手段，打算通过这种方式调整全球经济格局。2025年4月2日，他在白 宫玫瑰园签署了一项行政命令，推出对等关税政策。此举意味着全球进口商品将面临不同程度的关税： 来自中国的商品被征收34%的关税，欧盟为20%，日本24%，韩国25%，印度26%，越南46%，孟加拉国 37%，巴基斯坦29%，柬埔寨则高达49%。这一政策宣布后，全球股市迅速下跌，道琼斯指数下跌了 3.2%，越南胡志明市股市更是暴跌了6.68%。特朗普的目的是通过这种经济手段重塑全球供应链，迫使 其他国家让步，尤其是中国的贸易路线被切断。巴基斯坦作为能源进口大国，每年需支付113亿美元的 费用，29%的关税直接冲击了其纺织和农产品的出口，这部分占其总出口的15%。而柬埔寨的服装业几 乎完全依赖美国市场，一旦面对49%的关税，工厂订单必然大幅减少。 这一政策对 ...

但利德巴克表示，这类为长期增长而缩减总体产能的投资，可能只有大型企业才有能力承担。并非所有 特种化学品都能真正盈利，因为其研发、生产及审批成本高昂，且所有这些环节都需要时间。 当前，亚洲地区持续新增产能，全球石化产品供应过剩，同时，需求疲软的局面迟迟未改。石化企业正 因利润率下滑和经营亏损，被迫通过整合重组直面现实挑战。近日，安迅思(ICIS)副总裁兼化工分析主 管亚历克斯·利德巴克表示，全球石化市场短期预计难以复苏，企业需正视重组的必要性。他指出："石 化企业必须做出艰难决策，并相应调整自身规模。" 以韩国企业为例，尽管重组谈判尚未完成，但它们已同意将石脑油裂解中心(NCC)的产能削减至多四分 之一。截至目前，HD现代化学公司与乐天化学正在敲定业务重组计划，拟将大山工业园区的石脑油裂 解中心整合为合资企业，以此削减乙烯产量。其他企业仍在就重组方案进行磋商，韩国政府要求相关计 划须在年底前提交。与此同时，行业整合正同步推进以优化运营。部分企业如乐天化学等，计划从基础 化工转型，进军特种化学品领域。 2025至2026年全球石化产能持续扩张，对全球石化企业而言并非好消息。目前，除印度等少数地区外， 多数经济体需 ...

古特雷斯呼吁G20带头消除贸易壁垒 中新社约翰内斯堡11月21日电 (记者 孙翔)联合国秘书长古特雷斯21日在约翰内斯堡举行媒体吹风会， 就全球治理不公和经济不平等问题发出了呼吁，"各国必须构筑贸易之桥，而不是贸易之墙"、"G20应 带头消除贸易壁垒"。 古特雷斯指出，当前的国际金融体系既不公平也无效，因为它"由发达国家设计并根据其经济需求调 整"。他表示，现在是打造一个以解决发展中国家挑战为核心的真正全球金融体系的时候。 古特雷斯将非洲在当前全球治理中的困境描述为"殖民主义的双重受害者"："首先是几个世纪的掠夺， 其次是国际机构在建立时，非洲国家仍处于殖民统治之下，其声音缺席谈判桌。" 古特雷斯呼吁G20成员发挥关键作用，修复这一历史性不公并推动改革，使全球经济治理更加包容、具 代表性、公平且有效。 古特雷斯警告说，不平等已成为"社会中的癌症"，它集中权力，并"削弱了公众对民主的信任"。他进一 步指出，许多发展中国家——尤其是非洲国家——被长期锁定在全球价值链底端，或被排除在贸易机会 之外。 他向G20发出呼吁："各国必须构筑贸易之桥，而不是贸易之墙"，"G20应带头消除贸易壁垒，为最贫困 国家提供真正的自 ...

1. 11月21日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指 期货涨跌互现。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.14%，标普期货涨 0.08%，纳指期货跌0.12%。 2. 截至发稿，欧洲股市主要指数齐跌。欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.14%，英国富 时100指数跌0.35%，法国CAC40指数跌0.3%，德国DAX30指数跌0.84%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌 1.51%，报58.11美元/桶。布伦特原油跌1.26%，报62.58美元/桶。纽交所 黄金跌0.39%，报4044.1美元/ 盎司。 市场消息 1、美联储威廉姆斯表示仍认为近期存在降息空间。 2、瑞士央行行长施莱格尔将于 20:40发表讲话。 3、白宫驳斥特朗普内阁"大清洗"报道，称相关内容为"瞎编引流"。 4、欧洲股市波动 率指数升至5月以来最高水平。 5、印度卢比兑美元汇率跌至历史新低，报89.1613。6、世界 钢铁协会 数据显示，10月全球粗钢产量同比下降5.9%。 7、欧洲央行行长拉加德表示欧盟若降低内部贸易壁垒， 可通过内部贸易增长抵消美国关税对经济增长的影响。8、欧洲芯片股开盘普跌，ASML、ASMI、 BESI、意法 半导体跌幅在3%至5%之间。 个股消息 ...

Group 1 - The European Commission's 2025 autumn economic outlook report indicates that the EU economy continues to grow, driven by a surge in exports due to anticipated U.S. tariffs [1][2] - The report forecasts a 1.4% growth in the EU's real GDP for 2025 and 1.3% for the Eurozone, with a slight downward revision from previous predictions [1] - Inflation rates in the Eurozone are expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025, while the overall EU inflation rate is projected to decrease from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.2% by 2027 [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that trade barriers have reached historical highs, with increased average tariff levels on EU exports to the U.S. compared to the spring 2025 forecast [2] - Ongoing trade policy uncertainties are dampening economic activity, with tariffs and non-tariff restrictions expected to have a greater-than-anticipated suppressive effect on EU economic growth [2] - The European Commission emphasizes the need for decisive action to unlock internal growth potential, including accelerating competitiveness agendas and simplifying regulations [2]

Core Insights - The visit of Canadian Foreign Minister Anand to China is framed as a "de-escalation journey" amid rising tensions due to tariffs imposed by Canada on Chinese electric vehicles and steel, with China retaliating on agricultural products [1][3] - Despite political pressures, bilateral trade between Canada and China has shown resilience, with a reported trade volume of 133.3 billion CAD in 2024, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase [3] - Canadian exports to China have increased by 7.8% in the first eight months of the year, highlighting the economic necessity for Canada to engage with China despite U.S. pressures [1][3] Trade Dynamics - The expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline has resulted in over 50% of Alberta's crude oil being exported to China, generating 2.78 billion CAD in revenue [3] - The liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects have also made significant progress, indicating a growing energy trade relationship between Canada and China [3] - The Canadian government is reviewing tariffs, signaling a potential shift towards restoring economic cooperation with China [3] U.S. Influence - U.S. intervention remains a constant factor, with media narratives emphasizing the sensitivity of Canada's engagement with China, urging caution [3] - The Australian Treasury's stance suggests that trade barriers are not a core interest, reflecting a broader understanding of the importance of economic ties, particularly as 96% of Canada's canola exports depend on the Chinese market [3] - The ability of Canada to navigate U.S. pressures while maintaining beneficial trade relations with China will be crucial for future cooperation [3]

美国最高法院的一项关键判决可能瓦解特朗普政府关税政策的核心支柱，迫使其向进口商退还天量税款，并重塑美国的贸易壁垒。 此前央视新闻报道，美国联邦最高法院将快速审议特朗普政府征收的多数关税的合法性，定于11月5日听取口头辩论。 据追风交易台，瑞银（UBS）分析认为，尽管此举将引发市场短期动荡，并使美国财政前景承压，但如果贸易伙伴保持克制、避免报复，一个整体税率更 低的贸易环境最终可能对美国经济和股市构成利好。 根据瑞银的推演，若最高法院最终裁定关税非法，最直接的后果是美国政府或需退还约1300亿至1400亿美元的关税收入。这笔资金将为支付了关税的美国 进口商带来一笔意外之财，但同时也会使本已严峻的联邦预算赤字状况进一步恶化，相当于2025年预算赤字的7.9%。 瑞银预计，届时政府将动用其他法律工具，如《1974年贸易法》的第201、301条款等，来"重建关税壁垒"，但这将是一个耗时数季度且灵活性更低的过 程。这一过程可能引发特定地区市场和行业的短暂波动，但如果各国避免采取报复措施，其影响将是有限的。 是否授予总统征收关税的权力？ 最高法院审理的"Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc."一 ...

Domestic News - China will host the 33rd APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting in Shenzhen in November next year [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced tax policies related to gold, exempting value-added tax for transactions of standard gold through designated exchanges until the end of 2027 [1] - According to the China Index Academy, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.84% month-on-month in October, with a year-on-year decline of 7.60% [2] Industry News - China Railway Express has launched its "Double 11" shopping peak express service, utilizing over 1,700 high-speed trains daily, with a projected 10% increase in express capacity compared to last year [2] - NIO delivered 40,397 new vehicles in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 92.6% and surpassing 40,000 units for the first time in a single month [2] - XPeng Motors achieved a record high delivery of 42,013 new vehicles in October, maintaining over 40,000 units for two consecutive months [2] - Li Auto delivered 31,767 vehicles in October [2]

Core Insights - China's steel industry is experiencing increased export pressure and risks due to tightening global trade conditions [1][2] Group 1: Export and Import Data - In the first three quarters, China's steel exports reached 87.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [1] - The average export price was $697 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1] - The total export value amounted to $61.3 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.2% [1] - Steel imports totaled 4.53 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [1] - The average import price was $1,692 per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [1] - The net steel export volume was 96.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.0% [1] Group 2: Export Characteristics and Challenges - Since the beginning of the year, China's steel exports have shown diversification in flow and variety [1] - Exports of hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel products have significantly decreased due to anti-dumping investigations [1] - The export volume of steel billets has tripled compared to the same period last year, although the export price has decreased [1] - Following the removal of additional tariffs in 2021, steel billet exports have consistently increased in volume but decreased in price [1] Group 3: Trade Barriers - The steel industry is facing heightened trade friction as international trade protectionism rises [2] - In 2024, China encountered 33 cases of trade remedy investigations against its steel products, with 25 cases occurring this year [2] - Various technical and non-tariff measures are contributing to increased trade barriers, amplifying export pressures and risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - A television advertisement funded by the Ontario government, costing approximately 75 million CAD (about 54 million USD), has led to the termination of all trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada, highlighting the fragility of diplomatic relations and the impact of media on political dynamics [1][3][20] Group 1: Advertisement and Political Reaction - The advertisement utilized a clip of former U.S. President Reagan's speech, which was edited and misinterpreted, provoking a strong reaction from President Trump who perceived it as a provocation [3][5] - The ad aimed to remind Americans of the dangers of high tariffs, echoing Reagan's warnings about trade barriers harming American workers and consumers, but it was stripped of its historical context [5][9] - Trump's immediate response on social media labeled the ad as "fraudulent" and accused it of "interfering with the judiciary," reflecting his sensitivity to external criticism and the political implications of the advertisement [11][12] Group 2: Canada’s Response and Economic Implications - Following Trump's reaction, the Ontario government quickly announced the suspension of the advertisement in an attempt to reopen negotiations, demonstrating the pressure Canada faces as the U.S. is its largest trading partner, with nearly 75% of Canadian exports going to the U.S. [14][18] - The incident illustrates a pattern where Canada has had to retract policies or advertisements that provoke U.S. ire, indicating a power imbalance in their economic relationship [18][20] - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau acknowledged the end of the long-standing close economic relationship with the U.S., reflecting a growing awareness of the precariousness of their dependency on American markets [20][24] Group 3: Broader Implications on Global Relations - The incident underscores the shifting dynamics in global power relations, where even minor actions by a dominant economy like the U.S. can significantly alter the policies of smaller nations [22][24] - The advertisement serves as a symbol of the challenges faced by smaller countries in asserting their independence and the need for a more stable and less dependent economic relationship [24]